Predict the Hawkeye Cauci Results...Must be in by 6 PM January 3rd 2012

[Selene]

The Rules:

You need to show up at the proper precinct, based on your address. You can participate if you’ll be 18 years old on Election Day of November 2012. If you’re a registered Republican, your name should already be on the list. If not, you can register as a member of the party on the spot, regardless of your political affiliation.

“Each campaign has the opportunity to have one surrogate speak for anywhere from two to five minutes — it depends on what the precinct chair in that precinct allows,” says Strawn. “And then after those speeches, there’s no questions. … You go straight to the vote.”

It’s important to note that no delegates attached to candidates are selected in the Iowa GOP caucuses, so the event is really a beauty contest — albeit one very important to the process of selecting a nominee.

On Tuesday, Jan. 3, Iowa caucus participants will gather at 1,774 precincts across the state, beginning at 7 p.m. local time. Both parties will caucus, though the event will be much less dramatic for the Democrats, since President Obama is seeking re-election. Here’s what will happen at the GOP caucuses:

All caucus participants arrive at their precincts, where they will sign in at the door.

The caucus meetings begin with the Pledge of Allegiance. A caucus chairman and a secretary will be elected by the body to run the meeting and take notes.

After the chairman and secretary are elected, candidate representatives from each campaign are given time to speak on behalf of their candidate.

Once the speakers have finished, sheets of paper are passed out to every registered Iowa Republican from the precinct.

Voters then write down their candidate preference.

All votes are then collected.

Every vote is counted. The caucus chairman and secretary will count the votes in front of the caucus, and a representative from each campaign is allowed to observe the counting of the votes. The results are recorded on an official form provided by the Republican Party of Iowa and are announced to the caucus.

A caucus reporter is chosen to report the results to the Republican Party of Iowa, accompanied by campaign representatives to verify the results reported to Iowa GOP officials.

Iowa GOP officials do not count results; they aggregate them from around the state and report them to the media.

Within 14 days of the caucus, certified results will be released for a complete breakdown of all caucus votes that were cast by precinct.

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Here are the candidates: Please note, Herman Cain will still be on the ballot despite suspending his campaign. Gary Johnson has chosen to leave the Republican Party and seek the Libertarian Party Presidential nomination. Mr. Johnson has directed his supporters to vote for Dr. Paul in the January 3rd, 2012 cauci.

THOSE OF YOU WHO WISH TO JOIN MY PREDICTION GAME, YOU MUST POST YOUR EXACT PERCENTAGES FOR EACH CANDIDATE BY 6 P.M., EST, ON JANUARY 3RD, 2012 BECAUSE THE CAUCUS'S CONVENE AT 7 P.M. THAT NIGHT.

PLEASE INCLUDE YOUR ESTIMATED TURNOUT WITH YOUR PREDICTIONS OF THE VOTE, E.G., 108,000.

Michele Bachmann

www.michelebachmann.com

Newt Gingrich

www.newt.org

Jon Huntsman

www.jon2012.com

Gary Johnson

www.garyjohnson2012.com/

Ron Paul

www.ronpaul2012.com/

Rick Perry

www.rickperry.org

Buddy Roemer

www.buddyroemer.com/

Mitt Romney

www.mittromney.com

Rick Santorum

www.ricksantorum.com/

GOOD LUCK!

Adam

[Peter]

I will play it safe and go with the polls. Romney number one then, Paul, Santorum, Perry, Gingrich, and Bachmann.

Who will drop out? Bachmann. I would have also said Perry, as recently as yesterday, but with Rush behind him I think he still has a hope. If Gingrich does not win Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina or Florida, he may drop out.

If I were running and had the money I might stay in longer just hoping the leaders will implode. It has happened to all he front runners so far.

Peter

[BaalChatzaf]

Mitt Romney has the chin of a leader.

Ba'al Chafatz

[Selene]

I will play it safe and go with the polls. Romney number one then, Paul, Santorum, Perry, Gingrich, and Bachmann.

Who will drop out? Bachmann. I would have also said Perry, as recently as yesterday, but with Rush behind him I think he still has a hope. If Gingrich does not win Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina or Florida, he may drop out.

If I were running and had the money I might stay in longer just hoping the leaders will implode. It has happened to all he front runners so far.

Peter

Peter:

This entry does not qualify because:

1) a percentage of the vote was not given for each candidate; and

2) a numerical statement of the total turnout was not provided.

Adam

[Selene]

Mitt Romney has the chin of a leader.

Ba'al Chafatz

Bob:

This entry does not qualify because:

1) a percentage of the vote was not given for each candidate; and

2) a numerical statement of the total turnout was not provided.

Adam

[Peter]

Ba'al Chafatz who does not joke said, “Mitt Romney has the chin of a leader.”

Who’s chin did he take, Ronald Reagan’s?

Chin? I would say he has Chan, grasshopper.

Too bad he does not have Popeye’s forearms.

Peter

[Selene]

Estimated turnout...118,000

Dr. Paul ...............23

Santorum ............22

Romney ..............20

Perry ...................16

Mr. Newt ..............13

Bachman .............05

Huntsman (who?) 01

Cain.....................0025 <<<<changed at 7:33 EST

Johnson..............000

Roemer<<<< forgot about him added at 7:33 EST .0025

[Peter]

I waited until 18:48 military time to see if you had posted anything or if you were going to try and snooker us. Good choices. I think most people would unconsciously put their first choice first, second choice second . . . etc., until you get to the lowest vote getting also ran’s. Your order of performance was Dr. Paul, Santorum, Romney, Perry, Newt, Bachman, and the last three who’s. Is your top tier also your voting preference?

Semper cogitans fidele,

Peter Taylor

[Selene]

I waited until 18:48 military time to see if you had posted anything or if you were going to try and snooker us. Good choices. I think most people would unconsciously put their first choice first, second choice second . . . etc., until you get to the lowest vote getting also ran’s. Your order of performance was Dr. Paul, Santorum, Romney, Perry, Newt, Bachman, and the last three who’s. Is your top tier also your voting preference?

Semper cogitans fidele,

Peter Taylor

Peter:

Why would I try to "snooker" anyone on predicting an election/caucus outcome?

My designation of the percentages is how I think the results of the Hawkeye Cauci will be.

They do not reflect who I would vote for. It reflects my professional judgment as to the results.

Adam

[Selene]

Dr. Paul is conceding and he will finish 3rd.

Santorum will probably win by a nose and Romney will be second.

Pretty good call, I had the top three.

Mr. Newt will be fourth (4th) at 13 % - had that on the nose as well as Bachman at 5%.

I thought Perry was moving better, but it looks like he will be about 11 or 12.10%.

As of 12:01 AM January 4th looks like he is going to end his campaign - his speech that just finished was pretty close to an end a campaign speech. His two (2) daughters were on the edge of full tears at the end.

[Peter]

The order you picked, Adam, was Dr. Paul, Santorum, Romney, Perry, Newt, Bachman, and the last three who’s. So, who is your top tier voting preference Adam? In your professional opinion, you were completely wrong.

Here tis’:

Mitt Romney ® 30,015 25%

Rick Santorum ® 30,007 25%

Ron Paul ® 26,219 21%

Newt Gingrich ® 16,251 13%

Rick Perry ® 12,604 10%

Michele Bachmann ® 6,073 5%

Jon Huntsman ® 745 1%

No Preference ® 135 0%

Other ® 117 0%

Herman Cain ® 58 0%

Buddy Roemer ® 31 0%

I picked Romney number one then, Paul, Santorum, Perry, Gingrich, and Bachman. The top two are so close it is magical.

I thought Paul would be closer because he had the benefit of “political tricksters” who were urging democrat operatives to sign up as Republicans on the day of the Caucus by presenting a couple of pieces of documentation. I think it was driver’s license and proof of county of residence, and that is perfectly legal. Then vote Paul. Of course the last minute course of action could have been to vote Santorum too.

Paul is not, nor has he ever been, a serious national candidate, so Newt over Perry is significant. Santorum has voted for a lot of RINO stuff which is coming out and he has a lot of electoral losses to his column. Wait until they start airing Santorum's personal stuff about the loss of an infant child. He is too weepy, religious. Count him out.

That leaves Romney, Gingrich, and Perry. Vanilla, Chocolate, or Strawberry? Gingrich is just too old, and this loss has turned him more bitter and narcissistic. I think his ads in New Hampshire and South Carolina will be nasty, as will Ron Paul’s. As Robert Trancinski has noted about Newt, it’s all about Newt not the country. So, my two top hopefuls for rational political reasons, are Romney, and Perry. Or Perry and Romney.

I am editing this to say my astute wife is predicting Perry and Bachman will drop out. I am not so sure until after South Carolina.

Semper cogitans fidele,

Peter Taylor

[Peter]

I just received the following in my inbox. I must have rube or potential donor on my email description. Below, Rick but not rich Santorum says, “The future of our country depends on what conservatives like you do in the next 72 hours.”

Really? !!! Wow, he is a “Passionate Conservative.”

Peter

Dear Patriot:

It's Now or Never for Conservative voters. We can either unite now behind one candidate and have a conservative standard bearer in 2012, or have the GOP establishment choose another moderate Republican who will have a difficult time defeating Barack Obama in November.

I don't think that's what you want. Neither do I. My name is Rick Santorum, and I am the only authentic, passionate conservative who can unite the GOP. I need an URGENT contribution of at least $35 today to unite conservative voters and win the Republican nomination.

We shocked the world last night in Iowa. We did it with a coalition of conservatives, Tea Party members, and values voters who recognized that my successful conservative record gives the GOP the best chance to defeat Barack Obama. No more sitting on the sidelines. Now is the time to act or get stuck with a bland, boring, career politician who will lose to Barack Obama. Tomorrow will be too late. Will you unite with me, merge conservative support, and help us hold our banner high? Your contribution of $35, $50, or even $75 can make sure this happens.

The next test is New Hampshire … a state Mitt Romney has campaigned in for over four years. This is why I need your immediate support. I’m counting on conservatives around America to respond to this call for help. If we are divided in New Hampshire, we will lose this opportunity to keep the momentum.

I will be the most conservative President since Ronald Reagan. I am not going to Washington to blend in and hope people like me. I am running to dismantle the Obama Agenda and lead--like Reagan did. The Washington Post said, “Rick Santorum was a tea-party kind of guy before the tea-party even existed.” As a conservative U.S. Senator from the swing state of Pennsylvania, I led the overhaul of welfare that moved millions from welfare to work. I authored the bill banning partial-birth abortion, and I passed legislation that protected America from Iran’s growing nuclear threat. If you want a President who will stand up for conservative values, who is consistent on the issues, and who has a record to back it up, then I need you to join my campaign.

I need you to join me today. Right now. Not tomorrow or next week. If you want to roll back the Obama Agenda with a real conservative, this is your chance. The future of our country depends on what conservatives like you do in the next 72 hours.

Will you join us today with a generous contribution of whatever you can afford? I give Republicans the best option to put a full-spectrum conservative in the White House. Help me make history!

Sincerely,

Rick Santorum

P.S. I went from longshot to the Iowa Caucus “surprise candidate” overnight. Now conservatives must unite or be defeated. Please donate today and take a stand with my campaign. Join the fight!

[Selene]

Looks like Bachman is going to drop out at 11:00 this morning at a press conference.

She is out, so we will not have to have our ears assaulted by that voice which grates me and detracts from her message.

[BaalChatzaf]

Looks like Bachman is going to drop out at 11:00 this morning at a press conference.

She is out, so we will not have to have our ears assaulted by that voice which grates me and detracts from her message.

Good riddance to the Crazy Lady.

Conon O'brien made a funny. He said that Mad Michele referred to Planned Parenthood as the Lenscrafter of aborition mills. The people at Lenscrafters ™ responded and referred to Michele as the Costco of Crazy.

Ba'al Chatzaf

[Greybird]

You may not believe me, but I told my brother hours before the results that the Iowa fix was in: Mittens, then Lubricant, then Paul. What few will acknowledge is that as far as delegates, which is what matter more than a highly visible straw poll, the three candidates did about equally. Paul is very much electorally alive.

Genocide, as in Santorum's call for nuking Iran, seems to be what sells most readily among Christians in Iowa. I am abashed yet again about ever having been, as I was until age 19, a Christian growing up in Iowa.

[Reidy]

Michelle Bachman is OUT?! Who knew? Maybe she should see her husband for therapy.

[Selene]

Michelle Bachman is OUT?! Who knew? Maybe she should see her husband for therapy.

Excellent!

LOL

[Peter]

Greybird wrote:

the Iowa fix was in: Mittens, then Lubricant, then Paul . . . Paul is very much electorally alive.

end quote

What a snail biter, last night was. I had to go to dread before it was over. Now, Mr. Newt just spoke on the Laura Ingraham rodea show. Newt is swilling to unite with Rick Santorum to pull down the establishment malcontent candied yam, Mitt Romney. I don’t get your nickname for Santorum.

Paul is “very much electorally alive?” No, he is not, according to the RealClearPolitics compiled polls. New Hampshire? Romney 41 percent, Paul 18.3, Gingrich 12.5 Huntsman 10.0, Santorum 4.3, Perry 2.3.

South Carolina? Gingrich 37 percent, Romney 21, Paul 8.7, Perry 5.7, Santorum 2.7, Huntsman 3.3

Florida? Gingrich 26, Romney 17, Paul 5, Perry 4, Santorum 1

“Electoral-ly alive” is the wrong phrase. “In your dreams” is what I think you mean. Paul has squandered his chances, on principle. Yeah, I just said that seemingly un-Objectivist concept, since the first rule of politics is to “get elected.” A politician must reflect and emphasize the value of the majority and leave the education of the majority to the culture, which he can also influence to a degree. To be able to sway a majority to a completely different mindset a leader needs charisma, and Paul does not have that. I also hope Doctor Paul will stay in the race. He is a hoot in he debates.

Peter

[sbeaulieu]

I have to say I'm pretty impressed by Ron Paul's standing. Although a "beauty pagent" of sorts, I think this makes him a very good contender in the overall picture, especially seeing how close the top three percentages were.

~ Shane

[Peter]

sbeaulieu wrote:

I have to say I'm pretty impressed by Ron Paul's standing. Although a "beauty pageant" of sorts, I think this makes him a very good contender in the overall picture, especially seeing how close the top three percentages were.

end quote

I will agree that the rest of the primary elections have not yet occurred so no one should bet the farm on speculation. However, Doctor Paul is not leading in the next three contests, nor does any political strategist predict a “Santorum miracle” for Ron Paul anywhere. Many states now have rules that any candidate who gets 50.1 percent of the vote then 100 percent of that state’s votes will be allocated to the winner at the convention.

From ehow: Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia — all Super Tuesday states — added a conditional element to their allocation rules. Winner-take-all allocation is dependent upon a candidate receiving over 50% of the vote, statewide and/or on the congressional district level . . . The fewer candidates there are, the more likely it is that someone breaks 50% of the vote, and subsequently takes all the delegates in any of these conditional states.

end quote

These are the states that have had 100 percent going to the majority winner since 2008: Arizona Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New York, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

Shane, I don’t think Ron Paul will even win Texas, unless it is obvious he doesn’t have a chance to win nationally. You figure that one out for me. No wins means Doctor Paul is not a winner.

Peter Talor

[sbeaulieu]

I hold no illusions as to him gaining victory (as much as I would like him to... wishing doesn't make it so). However, I am pleased that he got the marks he did. To me, it encapsulated that his efforts and messages have hit damn near the same as the two above him. Many didn't expect that to happen. It's a small change, but a change none the less.

We'll see how things play out during the rest of the campaign trail. But I think that those percentages are a good start for him. I'm cautiously hopeful that his consistancy on issues will factor in immensely in the coming months.

~ Shane

[BaalChatzaf]

I told you: Mitt has the chin of a leader.

Ba'al Chatzaf

[Peter]

Shane wrote:

To me, it encapsulated that his efforts and messages have hit damn near the same as the two above him. Many didn't expect that to happen. It's a small change, but a change none the less.

end quote

I get you. Paul’s close finish establishes a strict constructionist candidates “precedent.” Going forward into future elections, precedent is important. A candidate who can speak plainly like Ron Paul or Paul Ryan espousing Tea Party values will not be dismissed out of hand.

The liberal guy on Fox’s The Five, Bob Beckel, just said something very perceptive. “Romney wanted a close race.” I agree. I think Mitt was OK with a close win and would have accepted a close second place finish with grace. The secular liberals are very wary of Mitt because he is the most formidable foe in the general election but if he wins they are OK with that. They are not salivating over Obama anymore. Just recently, there was a push to get Hillary to run a primary against Obama.

Watch what happens to Rick Santorum after his near win in Iowa. He will be treated as the “Bad Robot” next by the liberal media because of his evangelical stances. Rick once compared homosexual behavior as something as horrible as bestiality. Maybe he could shorten his name to gain minority status - Santorum to Santo. That sounds Hispanic. Then the liberals won’t beat up on him.

So why hasn’t Mitt got “the first place treatment” yet? All the Liberals have on him is: “he is a fat cat,” “his religion is an issue,” and “he’s just as liberal as Obama so why not vote for the incumbent who needs four more years to fix what Bush did?”

Rush Limbaugh said today that Newt will be coming on strong after Romney in the next debates, which I think are Saturday and Sunday. Mr. Newt is royally pissed off after the negative campaign against him in Iowa. Rush said, “The gloves are coming off!” Great. Uh, Maharushi? We don’t need mudslinger’s – we need Gunslingers to beat Obama. Mitt has been hurt enough by John McCain endorsement of him. McCain rushed back during the 2008 campaign to vote for TARP.

Ba'al Chatzaf wrote:

I told you: Mitt has the chin of a leader.

end quote

And you have chutzpah. My wife noticed that his sons who were gathered around him for a photo shoot looked like male models, rather than trolls from under a bridge. Can we trust such good looking people, with manly chins?

Pete

[Peter]

Here it comes. A full page on CBS online about Santorum’s financial irregularities. He had a sweetheart mortgage deal and someone contributed to a charity of his for favors.

Peter

[BaalChatzaf]

Here it comes. A full page on CBS online about Santorum’s financial irregularities. He had a sweetheart mortgage deal and someone contributed to a charity of his for favors.

Peter

In due course we will find out how many women he molested.

Ba'al Chatzaf