Gaddafi seems to be winning

[BaalChatzaf]

That son of a bitch Gaddafi seems to be gaining ground. He has an air force which he is using lethally against the rebelling folks. Short of intervention to prevent him from using planes, it does not look good for the rebellion. At the very least they will suffer massive casualties.

It is highly unlikely that Our Lord and Master Obama will intervene with a no-fly policy soon enough or well enough so the rebellious folks of Libya will have to do as well as they can on their own.

Ba'al Chatzaf

[sbeaulieu]

This is an instance where the diplomatic solution has clearly expired. France and Britain are onboard with air strikes should Gadaffi bomb or use chemical weapons against civilians. What I don't understand is why the international powerhouses dragging their feet on this. There's a clear violation of human rights yet we stand idly by. I know the rebels want this to be their own fight, but the other side of the coin shows us that Gaddafi has lost his legitimacy as a leader. That's where UN comes in and snuffs him out.

~ Shane

[BaalChatzaf]

There's a clear violation of human rights yet we stand idly by. I know the rebels want this to be their own fight, but the other side of the coin shows us that Gaddafi has lost his legitimacy as a leader. That's where UN comes in and snuffs him out.

~ Shane

Since when have the leadership of the major nations acted on principle? As to the U.N. doing anything, dream on.

Ba'al Chatzaf

[sbeaulieu]

There's a clear violation of human rights yet we stand idly by. I know the rebels want this to be their own fight, but the other side of the coin shows us that Gaddafi has lost his legitimacy as a leader. That's where UN comes in and snuffs him out.

~ Shane

Since when have the leadership of the major nations acted on principle? As to the U.N. doing anything, dream on.

Ba'al Chatzaf

I couldn't agree more. Perfect worlds don't exist. But any attacks will have to be rubberstamped by UN. When/if that will happen is yet to be seen.

~ Shane

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

The whole thing is wrong. Everybody is screwing up and nobody in public is telling anything that corresponds to reality anywhere.

It's the weirdest damn thing to watch.

My prediction (qualified for instability, though, because in reality anything can happen): Gaddafi will keep his power. Obama's wet noodle "noose" of freezing on his assets in the West will simply make him sell more oil to Russia and China and he won't even feel it. The Western mainstream media will make a fool out of itself big time in the end. Gaddafi will kill off many of the ringleaders against him inside of Libya--both directly and by feeding them to the appropriate local tribes that he understands and controls so well. Some European countries will cave and support him. And if he gets some flack for real from other Arab nations instead of the wet noodles they are "tightening around his neck," he's crazy enough to come out in support of Israel just to spite them. (And it would not be support I would not trust.)

That's for starters.

I have never seen people misunderstand a person like Gaddafi like the whole world is doing right now. I suspect a lot of that is smokescreen, but a lot is just boneheadedness. It's crazy.

Reagan certainly understood Gaddafi. You whop a bully real hard and he backs down. It's really that simple in his case. It's hard to do, though, when a butt-load of people on your side have (under the radar) sold out to the bully.

Michael

[sbeaulieu]

Reagan certainly understood Gaddafi. You whop a bully real hard and he backs down. It's really that simple in his case. It's hard to do, though, when a butt-load of people on your side have (under the radar) sold out to the bully.

Michael

To this, I say they should have made a second bombing in the 80s. But unlike today, the cry for change (to my young mind back then) wasn't as profound as today.

~ Shane

[Brant Gaede]

Air power won't do it for the SOB unless the rebels give up. But a lot of them will die. Eventually the SOB's arsenal will run out of bombs and his warplanes out of maintenance. The SOB will eventually be confined to Tripoli. Then he'll be finished off, there.

--Brant

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Brant,

You don't think there are countries out there in the world willing to replenish his ordnance?

Russia? China? Maybe even Brazil and others?

I do.

People who make heavy weapons make really good profits when their products get used.

Business as usual...

Michael

[Brant Gaede]

Brant,

You don't think there are countries out there in the world willing to replenish his ordnance?

Russia? China? Maybe even Brazil and others?

I do.

People who make heavy weapons make really good profits when their products get used.

Business as usual...

Michael

Not really. Too obvious. Too little to gain. Watch. What you describe is done in peacetime or in extremis from the supplying power. We do that, for instance, to Saudi Arabia. We did that for Israel during the Yom Kippur War.

--Brant

edit: when a victor is perceived that faction will get the resupply or big supply--the question is who's going to be around for the foreseeable future--now, sub rosa is possible to who has the money, but that's not likely to be the big thing making anybody's difference

double edit: a tremendous amount of ordinance is expended in war--to achieve 1x one commonly expends 50 or more x. You cannot be resupplied fast enough. The question is: how much did you start with?--even the U.S. in the Vietnam War was bedevilled with this problem when obsolete bombs exploded on the U.S.S. Forestall disabling the ship and killing well over a hundred sailors

Edited March 12, 2011 by Brant Gaede

[Michael Stuart Kelly]

Brant,

Brazil was supplying weapons to Saddam Hussein right up to and during the first war. I know because I knew people who worked for Avibras back then and they told me. I'm not sure about the second war because of the embargo up to that point, but I am pretty sure Brazil had worked out some arrangements.

Libya is not at war with any other country right now. It has an internal problem.

And it has a hell of a lot of oil. So why would another country not friendly to the USA not supply it?

In my opinion, weapon supply is not a real issue for Gaddafi at this point. If war gets declared, that changes a bit, but until then, I just don't see any problem for him.

What's more, the American media is presenting an ugly picture, but not all other countries are getting that same picture.

Wishing for someone like Gaddafi to go away and making it happen are two very different things. If people want to get serious about taking him out, they need to get serious. So far, all I see is people in power making gestures that look good for public consumption, but are worthless in actual effect, while they play games in the backrooms.

Michael

[Brant Gaede]

Brant,

Brazil was supplying weapons to Saddam Hussein right up to and during the first war. I know because I knew people who worked for Avibras back then and they told me. I'm not sure about the second war because of the embargo up to that point, but I am pretty sure Brazil had worked out some arrangements.

Libya is not at war with any other country right now. It has an internal problem.

And it has a hell of a lot of oil. So why would another country not friendly to the USA not supply it?

In my opinion, weapon supply is not a real issue for Gaddafi at this point. If war gets declared, that changes a bit, but until then, I just don't see any problem for him.

What's more, the American media is presenting an ugly picture, but not all other countries are getting that same picture.

Wishing for someone like Gaddafi to go away and making it happen are two very different things. If people want to get serious about taking him out, they need to get serious. So far, all I see is people in power making gestures that look good for public consumption, but are worthless in actual effect, while they play games in the backrooms.

Michael

Michael,

Weapons are common, ammo is short.

--Brant

edit: if the rebels don't give up they will win, because of the nature of the terrain and because they'll get the supply for they have oil too--the bad guy in Tripoli will lose because who needs him? 42 years and 95% have got to be sick of him

Edited March 12, 2011 by Brant Gaede

[BaalChatzaf]

Air power won't do it for the SOB unless the rebels give up. But a lot of them will die. Eventually the SOB's arsenal will run out of bombs and his warplanes out of maintenance. The SOB will eventually be confined to Tripoli. Then he'll be finished off, there.

--Brant

Maybe. Or the rebels will be dispersed. BTW, Gaddafi has access to billions of $$$$ of cash and bank deposits. He can buy what he needs and there are those who will sell it to him. If he runs out of cash before the rebels run out of courage and blood then he might lose, but right now it does not look good for the rebels if outside powers do not intervene.

Do not deceive yourself into believing that "right" will always triumph. It does not always triumph. It does not often triumph.

Ba'al Chatzaf