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Ha! In other words, it's a law of nature that if you consistently win polls, you don't win elections. That just doesn't happen to anybody. Double ha! Michael I don't know what 'everyone' knows or what you think about polls -- and I don't believe you hold the opposite corollary to your one-liner: "We all know Polls are Reality." Maybe somewhere in between is your considered opinion.[...] Did you read into the poll I mentioned above that broke out Drumpf supporter's views on various issues of policy, preferences and attitudes? Do you find yourself represented in those soundings? Anyhow, you are probably unlikely to give us an essay on polling. T Boy, did you get that right. My thing is human nature, not running stats on the answers to multiple choice questions.[,,,] Now we come to polling. [...] That's why I treat polls more like a score of a football game than the hard reality of what will happen if we get this election wrong.[...] Polls are like cotton candy for nutrition.
I'll start off this thread by adding in Reb!'s guesstimate and mine ... REB: As for the upcoming Tuesday night vote, here's my prediction: Trump about 25%, Cruz and Rubio about 20% each, Christie and Jeb and Kasich about 10% each, Ben Casey 5%. (The last being a reference to an old medical tv series from 50 years ago.) WSS: I confidently predict Trump will garner 33% of the votes. I predict a mini-surge for Rubio, who will top 20%. As for Cruz, I think he will edge all the other also-rans, with about 12-15%. Fourth will be Kasich, with 10%, and Bush, Christie gaining about 5-7 tops. The remainder will not rise above 5%.(I reserve the right to change these guesses in AVS's thread). I am probably wildly wrong about Cruz in NH ... (I am already itching to change my opinion, but what the hell, I think I will keep it, even if I have some doubts in my own perspicacity) -- i can add a table of guesstimates on Monday, when we get a few more predictions in.