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This old piece popped up for me today. Truth: "There’s an old legal proverb: If you have the facts on your side, argue the facts. If you have the law on your side, argue the law. If you have neither, attack the witness. When proponents of a scientific consensus lead with an attack on the witness, rather than on the arguments and evidence, be suspicious." ----- Politics Disguised as Science: When to Doubt a Scientific ‘Consensus’ Anyone who has studied the history of science knows that scientists are not immune to the non-rational dynamics of the herd. iStockphoto 7.3K1.1K By JAY RICHARDS Published on April 19, 2017 • 168 Comments Jay Richards This week’s March for Science is odd. Marches are usually held to defend something that’s in peril. Does anyone really think big science is in danger? The mere fact that the March was scheduled for Earth Day betrays what the event is really about: politics. The organizers admitted as muchearly on, though they’re now busy trying to cover the event in sciencey camouflage. If past is prologue, expect to hear a lot about the supposed “consensus” on catastrophic climate change this week. The purpose of this claim is to shut up skeptical non-scientists. How should non-scientists respond when told about this consensus? We can’t all study climate science. But since politics often masquerades as science, we need a way to tell one from the other. “Consensus,” according to Merriam-Webster, means both “general agreement” and “group solidarity in sentiment and belief.” That sums up the problem. Is this consensus based on solid evidence and sound logic, or social pressure and groupthink? Anyone who has studied the history of science knows that scientists are prone to herd instincts. Many false ideas once enjoyed consensus. Indeed, the “power of the paradigm” often blinds scientists to alternativesto their view. Question the paradigm, and some respond with anger. We shouldn’t, of course, forget the other side of the coin. There are cranks and conspiracy theorists. No matter how well founded a scientific consensus, there’s someone who thinks it’s all hokum. Sometimes these folks turn out to be right. But often, they’re just cranks whose counsel is best ignored. So how do we distinguish, as Andrew Coyne puts it, “between genuine authority and mere received wisdom? And how do we tell crankish imperviousness to evidence from legitimate skepticism?” Do we have to trust whatever we’re told is based on a scientific consensus unless we can study the science ourselves? When can you doubt a consensus? When should you doubt it? Your best bet is to look at the process that produced, defends and transmits the supposed consensus. I don’t know of any complete list of signs of suspicion. But here’s a checklist to decide when you can, even should, doubt a scientific “consensus,” whatever the subject. One of these signs may be enough to give pause. If they start to pile up, then it’s wise to be leery. (1) When different claims get bundled together Usually, in scientific disputes, there’s more than one claim at issue. With global warming, there’s the claim that our planet, on average, is getting warmer. There’s also the claim that we are the main cause of it, that it’s going to be catastrophic, and that we must transform civilization to deal with it. These are all different claims based on different evidence. Evidence for warming, for instance, isn’t evidence for the cause of that warming. All the polar bears could drown, the glaciers melt, the sea levels rise 20 feet and Newfoundland become a popular place to tan: That wouldn’t tell us a thing about what caused the warming. This is a matter of logic, not scientific evidence. The effect is not the same as the cause. There’s a lot more agreement about (1) a modest warming trend since about 1850 than there is about (2) the cause of that trend. There’s even less agreement about (3) the dangers of that trend, or of (4) what to do about it. But these four claims are often bundled together. So, if you doubt one, you’re labeled a climate change “skeptic” or “denier.” That’s dishonest. When well-established claims are tied with other, more controversial claims, and the entire bundle is labeled “consensus,” you have reason for doubt. (2) When ad hominem attacks against dissenters predominate Personal attacks are common in any dispute. It’s easier to insult than to the follow the thread of an argument. And just because someone makes an ad hominem argument, it doesn’t mean that their conclusion is wrong. But when the personal attacks are the first out of the gate, don your skeptic’s cap and look more closely at the data. When it comes to climate change, ad hominems are everywhere. They’re even smuggled into the way the debate is described. The common label “denier” is one example. This label is supposed to call to mind the charge of columnist Ellen Goodman: “I would like to say we’re at a point where global warming is impossible to deny. Let’s just say that global warming deniers are now on a par with Holocaust deniers.” There’s an old legal proverb: If you have the facts on your side, argue the facts. If you have the law on your side, argue the law. If you have neither, attack the witness. When proponents of a scientific consensus lead with an attack on the witness, rather than on the arguments and evidence, be suspicious. (3) When scientists are pressured to toe the party line The famous Lysenko affair in the former Soviet Union is example of politics trumping good science. But it’s not the only way politics can override science. There’s also a conspiracy of agreement, in which assumptions and interests combine to give the appearance of objectivity where none exists. This is even more forceful than a literal conspiracy enforced by a dictator. Why? Because it looks like the agreement reflects a fair and independent weighing of the evidence. Tenure, job promotions, government grants, media accolades, social respectability, Wikipedia entries, and vanity can do what gulags do, only more subtly. Alexis de Tocqueville warned of this almost two centuries ago. The power of the majority in American society, he wrote, could erect “formidable barriers around the liberty of opinion; within these barriers an author may write what he pleases, but woe to him if he goes beyond them.” He could have been writing about climate science. Indeed, the quickest way for scientists to put their careers at risk is to raise even modest questions about climate doom (see here, here and here). Scientists are under pressure to toe the party line on climate change and receive many benefits for doing so. That’s another reason for suspicion. (4) When publishing and peer review in the discipline is cliquish Though it has its limits, the peer-review process is meant to provide checks and balances. At its best, it helps weed out bad and misleading work, and make scientific research more objective. But when the same few people review and approve each other’s work, you get conflicts of interest. This weakens the case for the supposed consensus. It becomes, instead, another reason for doubt. Those who follow the climate debate have known for years about the cliquish nature of publishing and peer review in climate science (see here for example). (5) When dissenters are excluded from the peer-reviewed journals not because of weak evidence or bad arguments but to marginalize them. Besides mere cliquishness, the “peer review” process in climate science has, in some cases, been subverted to prevent dissenters from being published. Again, those who follow the debate have known about these problems for years. But the Climategate debacle in 2009 revealed some of the gory details for the broader public. And again, this gives the lay public a reason to doubt the consensus. (6) When the actual peer-reviewed literature is misrepresented We’ve been told for years that the peer-reviewed literature is unanimous in its support for human-induced climate change. In Science, Naomi Oreskes even produced a “study” of the literature supposedly showing “The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change.” In fact, there are plenty of dissenting papers in the literature. This is despite mounting evidence that the peer-review deck was stacked against them. The 2009 Climategate scandal underscored this: The climate scientists at the center of the controversy complained in their emails about dissenting papers that survived the peer-review booby traps they put in place. They even fantasized about torpedoing a climate science journal that dared to publish a dissenting article. (7) When consensus is declared before it even exists A well-rooted scientific consensus, like a mature oak, needs time to grow. Scientists have to do research, publish articles, read about other research, and repeat experiments (where possible). They need to reveal their data and methods, have open debates, evaluate arguments, look at the trends, and so forth, before they can come to agreement. When scientists rush to declare a consensus — when they claim a consensus that has yet to form — this should give everyone pause. In 1992, former Vice President Al Gore reassured his listeners, “Only an insignificant fraction of scientists deny the global warming crisis. The time for debate is over. The science is settled.” In the real 1992, however, Gallup “reported that 53% of scientists actively involved in global climate research did not believe global warming had occurred; 30% weren’t sure; and only 17% believed global warming had begun. Even a Greenpeace poll showed 47% of climatologists didn’t think a runaway greenhouse effect was imminent; only 36% thought it possible and a mere 13% thought it probable.” Seventeen years later, in 2009, Gore revised his own fake history. He claimed that the debate over human-induced climate change had raged until as late as 1999, but now there was true consensus. Of course, 2009 is when Climategate broke, reminding us that what had smelled funny was indeed rotten. (8) When the subject matter seems, by its nature, to resist consensus It makes sense that chemists over time may come to agree about the results of some chemical reaction, since they can repeat the results over and over in their own labs. They’re easy to test. But much of climate science is not like that. The evidence is scattered and hard to track. It’s often indirect, imbedded in history and laden with theory. You can’t rerun past climate to test it. And the headline-grabbing claims of climate scientists are based on complex computer models that don’t match reality. These models get their input, not from the data, but from the scientists who interpret the data. This isn’t the sort of evidence that can provide the basis for a well-founded consensus. In fact, if there really were a consensus on the many claims around climate science, that would be suspicious. Thus, the claim of consensus is a bit suspect as well. (9) When “scientists say” or “science says” is a common locution In Newsweek’s April 28, 1975, issue, science editor Peter Gwynne claimed that “scientists are almost unanimous” that global cooling was underway. Now we are told, “Scientists say global warming will lead to the extinction of plant and animal species, the flooding of coastal areas from rising seas, more extreme weather, more drought and diseases spreading more widely.” “Scientists say” is ambiguous. You should wonder: “Which ones?” Other times this vague company of scientists becomes “SCIENCE.” As when we’re told “what science says is required to avoid catastrophic climate change.” “Science says” is a weasely claim. “Science,” after all, is an abstract noun. It can’t speak. Whenever you see these phrases used to imply a consensus, it should trigger your baloney detector. (10) When it is being used to justify dramatic political or economic policies Imagine hundreds of world leaders and NGOS, science groups, and UN functionaries gathered for a meeting. It’s heralded as the most important conference since World War II, in which “the future of the world is being decided.” These officials seem to agree that institutions of “global governance” need to be set up to reorder the world economy and restrict energy use. Large numbers of them applaud wildly when socialist dictators denounce capitalism. Strange activism surrounds the gathering. And we are told by our president that all of this is based, not on fiction, but on science — that is, a scientific consensus that our greenhouse gas emissions are leading to climate catastrophe. We don’t have to imagine that scenario, of course. It happened at the UN climate meeting in Copenhagen, in December 2009. It happened again in Paris, in December 2015. Expect something at least as zany at the March for Science. Now, none of this disproves climate doom. But it does describe a setting in which truth need not appear. And at the least, when policy effects are so profound, the evidence should be rock solid. “Extraordinary claims,” the late Carl Sagan often said, “require extraordinary evidence.” When the megaphones of consensus insist that there’s no time, that we have to move, MOVE, MOVE!, you have a right to be wary. (11) When the “consensus” is maintained by an army of water-carrying journalists who defend it with partisan zeal, and seem intent on helping certain scientists with their messaging rather than reporting on the field as fairly as possible Do I really need to elaborate on this point? (12) When we keep being told that there’s a scientific consensus A consensus should be based on solid evidence. But a consensus is not itself the evidence. And with well-established scientific theories, you never hear about consensus. No one talks about the consensus that the planets orbit the sun, that the hydrogen molecule is lighter than the oxygen molecule, that salt is sodium chloride, that bacteria sometimes cause illness, or that blood carries oxygen to our organs. The very fact that we hear so much about a consensus on climate change may be enough to justify suspicion. To adapt that old legal rule, when you’ve got solid scientific evidence on your side, you argue the evidence. When you’ve got great arguments, you make the arguments. When you don’t have solid evidence or great arguments, you claim consensus.

Did the manmade global warming climate change crisis emergency cause the coronavirus? I'm starting to hear that it did. The virus briefly distracted lefties from salivating over climate doom, but now they're beginning to remember to keep their focus, and to link anything bad to climate doom. How soon will the idea that the virus was caused by AGW become a "consensus" "settled science" "fact"? J

Yeah, muh Russians! Muh Covington kids!! Muh 'Nazis are very fine people'!!! Muh 'All Mexicans are animals'!!!! Muh 97% of real, verified, actual, true climate scientists agree that we need socialism if we want to survive the Doom™!!!!! Muh 'dead soldiers are loser and suckers'!!!!!!

There's a new girl in the climate doom propaganda game. https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/youtuber-campaigns-against-climate-alarmism-drawing-comparisons-to-greta-thunberg/ YouTuber campaigns against ‘climate alarmism,’ drawing comparisons to Greta Thunberg Feb. 23, 2020 at 5:24 pm Updated Feb. 23, 2020 at 7:01 pm By DESMOND BUTLER and Juliet Eilperin The Washington Post For climate skeptics, it’s hard to compete with the youthful appeal of global phenomenon Greta Thunberg. But one U.S. think tank hopes it’s found an answer: the anti-Greta. Naomi Seibt is a 19-year-old German who, like Greta, is blond, eloquent and _____ Do a search for "Naomi vs Greta." What a contrast in the left media's style of coverage of Naomi versus that of Greta. Hilarious. J

The accusatory approach hasn't been working, and has maybe even beenbackfiring. So the leftist climate activists are adopting a new strategy of lessening the focus on blame and hiding their urge to punish, while also upping the scary doom. The "settled science" is that these hick deniers "livelihoods and health will be at stake"? Everything will be worse: "Local crops are dying or washing away at alarming rates"? Oh, fucking no! More panic! More doom! Urgency, emergency! Good luck trying to sell those lies to those who live in ag regions, and who grow crops, and who therefore know that you're full of leftist shit. When the lefty predictions have not succeeded in reality, but yet lefties still want to act as if they have, I guess the only option is to act as if hypothesizing is the final step in science. It's also interesting that these "scientists" are proposing "solutions" which deal with fields way outside of their areas of expertise, such as the economic risks versus rewards. They know nothing about these subjects, and have not analyzed or weighed any of the consequences of what they are proposing, but rather are just shouting the first thing that pops into their leftist heads: More government! More control! Less freedom for the Others! Shiftng to a new semantics isn't a scientific mindset. It's still a political ploy, despite the article's claim that they want to avoid appearing to be political. The scientific approach would be to debate the science with informed critics, rather than avoiding them, shutting them out and vilifying them. Answer their criticisms. Release all of the data and the models/programs. Open up access to everything. Instead of telling doom stories and making emotional appeals to hunters, fishermen and farmers who don't have access to any of the "science," exhibit the courage of inviting expert critics to present their arguments, rather than maligning and ostracizing them. But I think we all know that that's not going to happen, because this isn't about climate. It's about power. Actions speak louder than words, and the leftist actions are not consistent with their words, which is why they are focused on semantic tactics. J

Check this out below: yet another Climate Doom™ alarmist whose actions don't match her words. Are there any who practice what they preach? I don't know of any. I've never heard of any prominent climate scientists or activists who have a smaller carbon footprint than I do. Usually, their footprints are multiple times that of mine. Do you know of any, Billy? Has anyone else here ever heard of a climate scientist or activist who claims to hold the belief of catastrophic anthropogenic climate change and who also behaves consistently with that stated belief? J --- Gas-guzzling car rides expose AOC’s hypocrisy amid Green New Deal pledge By Isabel Vincent and Melissa Klein March 2, 2019 | 7:32pm | Updated Enlarge Image Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAFP/Getty Images MORE ON: ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ Ocasio-Cortez explains why she hitched a ride in gas-guzzling minivan This Trump speech leaves him on-course for 2020 victory and other commentary Socialism's Millennial fans don't even know what it is Ocasio-Cortez leaves parade in 17-mpg minivan — blocks from the subway Freshman Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wants to save the planet with her Green New Deal, but she keeps tripping over her own giant carbon footprint. “We’re like, ‘The world is going to end in 12 years if we don’t address climate change,’ ” the progressive darling said in January, speaking of herself and her fellow millennials. “And, like, this is the war; this is our World War II.” https://nypost.com/2019/03/02/gas-guzzling-car-rides-expose-aocs-hypocrisy-amid-green-new-deal-pledge/

Billy has closed further comments on his "Placeholder for GW/CC 'How I got here’” climate doom thread, and just when I thought that he might finally be interested in actual discussion. So, I’m starting this thread to answer some of the responses that he gave in his last post — and thanks, Billy, for those responses, instead of your typical non-responsiveness. Billy replied to me: My understanding is that Tyndall's testing of his hypotheses were well-defined and carefully controlled, and his results were and are repeatable. I’ve been asking you to provide the same in regard to hypotheses of man-made climate change. Do you understand that Tyndall’s work does not answer my questions? Billy: You reap what you sow, Billy. Heh. Don’t like being accused and psychoanalyzed? Hmmm. Maybe consider not doing it to others. Let’s have a conversation. I’ve been asking for one for years. I’ve been asking the same questions, and you’ve been ignoring them, dodging them, and serving “tasty steamed octopus” (in other words, posting everything but answers to my questions while acting as if you’re answering the questions). I’ve also asked if you have a problem with my requests for you to show me the science, and, if so, to explain why you think that my questions are invalid, improper, not applicable, or whatever. No response. No explanation. Instead of having a discussion, you decide to ignore questions, and then devise ways of testing what I know about Tyndall or Weart, or whomever else. You don’t need to know how much I know. Science isn’t about establishing authority. He who knows the most doesn’t become right just by having the most knowledge. All that matters is repeatable results of successfully tested predictions of hypotheses. That’s what I’ve been asking you -- over and over and over again -- to provide. That’s the question that I’ve been asking you to provide the answers to. Show me the science. I’ve displayed the patience of a saint. I’ve asked countless times in regard to the hypothesis of anthropogenic climate change: "Show me the repeatable, successful predictions. Identify specifically what was the hypothesis, precisely what predictions were made, when were they made, what potential results were identified ahead of time as falsifying or invalidating the hypothesis, what the start and finish dates of the experiment were, provide the unmolested data, the untainted control, and the unmanipulated historical record." My belief and understanding is that you have not answered my questions. Nor did Brad when he was here, nor the second meatball. I’m not interested in suspecting what will happen in regard to "predictions of global warming to come.” Predictions are not the end of science. For the billionth fucking time, I’m interested in the predictions of the past having come true in reality after having been precisely defined. I'm interested in climatology following the requirements of the scientific method. As I’ve asked ad nauseam: "I'm asking to see 'the science' which puts the hypothesis to the test, and succeeds reliably and repeatedly. I'm asking for open access to all of the information. What was the hypothesis, precisely what predictions were made, when were they made, what potential results were identified ahead of time as falsifying or invalidating the hypothesis, what were the start and finish dates of the experiment, what are the unmolested data, the untainted control, and the unmanipulated historical record?” "How long of a time period must we observe temperatures rising, without leveling off or falling, in order to conclude not only that temperatures are indeed rising enough so as to be considered climactic change, but also primarily caused by human activities? Which models/experiments have identified this timeframe prior to the models' predictions being made, and prior to reality then being observed? Where may I find the details of these types of ground rules? We already know that some scientists are asserting that a 12 to 15 year "pause/hiatus," or even a 15 to 18 year one, is not sufficient to falsify their favorite models. With such assertions, determining exactly when the ground rules were established becomes very important. Without these details, it can seem that people are just making it up as they go along." "What are the specific conditions of falsifiability? What results in reality would invalidate the hypothesis? And why? "Which single model is the settled science model? I've seen a range of models with a range of predictions. Some have fallen by the wayside over the decades, and we don't hear about them anymore, but, anyway, which of the differing and competing current models settled it once and for all, and what date was it officially determined by the consensus scientists that that single model nailed it?" It isn’t a card game. Science isn’t about seeing the other guys' cards. It’s about identifying reality via a specific process. You seem to want to believe that I have beliefs that you need to counter. I don’t. I’m asking to see the science. No other method will work. I don’t accept substitutes, and all you’ve been focusing on is substitutes. Focus on the science. Focus on answering my questions rather than trying to guess my beliefs so that you can formulate a strategy to counter them. I haven’t read it. I’ve come across references to it, and quotes from it. I’m neither excited about reading it, nor opposed. Does it answer my questions? If so, please just cut to the chase and say so. Cite the relevant passages. There’s Billy doing exactly what he complains about when the Others™ do it right back to him. Anyway, to answer your question, no, your recommendation isn’t the kiss of death. Why are you so passionate about getting me to read it? Does it address the questions that I’ve been asking for years? If not, why would I find it worth reading? Are you hoping that, since it convinced you, it will do the same for me, and make me forget all about the questions that I’ve asked that you can’t answer? You poor darling. Victims who can’t take what they dish out are the most victimized of all victims. It's do damned unfair that people treat you almost as poorly as you treat them. Yes, please do come back if you learn that new material, especially if it answers my questions. We really don't need any more of your new material that doesn't answer the questions, or doesn't explain why you won't answer the questions. J

Hahahaha! "Orange man bad. Freedom bad. And, of course, Climate Doom™!!!! I'm not an expert on it, in fact I don't know anything about it really, but Climate Doom™!!! Seriously. I don't have the cult mindset anymore. The Others™ do. Orange man bad." J

Because of the Man-Made Climate Doom!!!!!!!!!!!!! Everything is proof of the Doom!!!!!!!!!!!!!! If it's hot, cold or average in Tucson, it's cited by alarmists as proof. On the other hand, when "deniers" use the same tactic, the alarmists are very quick to remind them that weather is not climate. The rules generally shift seasonally. Aw, Billy's having feelings about punctuation. Poor dear. Sheath your interrobangs, everyone, lest he develop a case of the vapors‽ Science is a real, specific thing, Billy, regardless of your disliking that fact and attempting to mock it. Your little act of posing as superior while trying to find a way around the scientific method isn't working here. Acting as if we're unreasonable for not letting you slough off the scientific burden of proof is a lame tactic. We're not imposing it on you, science itself is. That's the way that it works. And no, your reading recommendations are not a substitute for the science. They're yet another distraction. A wild goose chase. Science is what it is, and your emotions aren't going to change it. Trying to skip steps in the scientific method is not science, but rather an admission of a failed hypothesis. Attempting to skirt the requirements of science, and to then whine when caught doing so, isn't the way that science works. We're not being bullies and meanies and denier poopyheads in adhering to the rules of science and not letting you substitute something else for them Your distractions aren't working. After all this time, you still can't answer the challenge of presenting the science of repeatable, successful predictions. J

How well do you think that Climate Doom would have sold as a Narrative if instead of the lie that 97 percent of climate scientists agree that we're fucking doomed, Gore, Obama, DiCaprio, et al, had pushed the real number of 32.6 percent (which is actually still an exaggeration considering the additional factors outlined by the libertarian group who is going after NASA)? Heh. J

OMG, did manmade global warming climate change emergency crisis doom cause those fires, Billy? Is it settled science? Should the deniers be thrown into the fires?

I ran through Billy's original version of this thread, and copy and pasted several of the times that I asked my questions: ----- Um, Billy, don't interpret or spin my words. Read them. Understand them. I'm saying exactly what I mean. As I wrote: "I ask to be able to review the science and to evaluate the success or failure of its predictions. Give me all of the information. What was the hypothesis, precisely what predictions were made, when were they made, what potential results were identified ahead of time as falsifying or invalidating the hypothesis, what were the start and finish dates of the experiment, what is the unmolested data, the untainted control, and the unmanipulated historical record?" Provide the above, and then also demonstrate that it is reliably repeatable. --- Um, do you understand why the scientific method needs to be followed? Do you understand the fact that, regardless of how well-informed someone's hypothesis night be, there are always unknowns that might affect the system and the experiment? Each year we hear about new discoveries that scientists had no clue about, and new technologies that are improving our ability to track and model various phenomena which previously had been impossible. And yet there are still many things that we don't know, and many known phenomena that we are nowhere near to being able to isolate as not having significant effects. That's especially true in the realm of climatology. Show me the repeatable, successful predictions. Identify specifically what was the hypothesis, precisely what predictions were made, when were they made, what potential results were identified ahead of time as falsifying or invalidating the hypothesis, what the start and finish dates of the experiment were, provide the unmolested data, the untainted control, and the unmanipulated historical record. Nothing else is relevant. Pissing and moaning won't change that reality. --- Yeah, I don't know how to bridge the communication gap here. I'm not asking to be educated. I'm not asking for you to determine what you'll need to teach me, what holes in my knowledge you need to show me how to fill, what learning disabilities you'll need to detect in me and remedy, etc. I'm not asking you to guide me and nurture me. I'm not in need of anything like this: "Let's see, hmmm, do you know what molecules are? You've heard of those? Okay, well, that's wonderful, and maybe we can move along a little faster in your education than I had anticipated. Energy? Have you ever heard of that? Tell me what you think the term 'energy' means, and that might help me in gauging where I should start in your little education..." The resolution being debated in the world today is that significant global warming is currently happening, that it is caused primarily, if not completely, by human activities, that it is very dangerous, and perhaps even catastrophic. I'm not asking to see 'the science' which led people to hypothesize the above. Here's a colloquial version of the hypothesis as you seem to want me to learn it: "Scientist X discovered in 1904 that Y causes badness in certain amounts under certain conditions, therefore it logically follows that, since mankind is producing piles of Y, mankind is responsible for the levels of badness that we've adjusted our raw data to report, and The Doom™ is imminent." Such statements are not the end of science, but the beginning. They are the point where testing happens via a very well-defined, controlled method which conforms to the questions that I've repeatedly asked, and which is open to review and is inviting and welcoming of criticism. I'm asking to see 'the science' which puts the hypothesis to the test, and succeeds reliably and repeatedly. I'm asking for open access to all of the information. What was the hypothesis, precisely what predictions were made, when were they made, what potential results were identified ahead of time as falsifying or invalidating the hypothesis, what were the start and finish dates of the experiment, what are the unmolested data, the untainted control, and the unmanipulated historical record? --- On this thread, I've been hoping to move beyond the panic ploys. Please convince me with the science, I request. Here is what I'll need to see, I say. I've looked for it myself, and haven't succeeded. After following the issue for decades, I've also seen past failed predictions disappear, never to be mentioned again, and others become altered mid-experiment. I've seen the press report blatant untruths, and scientists not correct them -- and I've seen brave individual scientists then step forward to correct the record, earning them vitriol from fellow scientists who were silent about the untruths. Let's cut through all of that and have a grown up conversation. Show me what I ask to see. It's what I need to be convinced. I need to see the science, not a substitute and some tee hee hees. I need to see reliably repeatable successful predictions, including all of the details that I've listed several times here. I'll wait. I'll continue to laugh at the non-responsive responses, the silent treatment games, the tee hee heeing, and the panic ploys. I'll wait. --- Cool. It really shouldn't be a difficult thing to figure out. Just answer the questions. Or tell us why you think that the questions are not valid, if that's the case. Do you not like the scientific method? Do you reject it as being silly or old-fashioned or something? If so, explain why, and then identify what you propose to replace it with. --- Show me the repeatable, successful predictions. Identify specifically what was the hypothesis, precisely what predictions were made, when were they made, what potential results were identified ahead of time as falsifying or invalidating the hypothesis, what the start and finish dates of the experiment were, provide the unmolested data, the untainted control, and the unmanipulated historical record. --- What Brad is doing is trying to bog down the discussion by overwhelming it with minutiae. The game is that we asked for repeatable, so Brad is going to pretend to not understand the context, and give all sorts of examples of repeatable in regard to noncontroversial pieces of the puzzle, while hoping that we didn't notice that he switched to talking about pieces when we were specifically asking for repeatable entire picture. It's like someone saying that granite floats on air. You ask for proof via repeatable experiments, and douchebag then goes into the repeatable science of the mineralogical composition of granite, and what evidence there is to label it felsic. Do you know what felsic means? Huh, stupid? No? But yet you have your big important opinions about rocks not floating! Science denier! That, and another tack is bickering about how badly Brad's being treated, and who said what. Boo hoo hoo. Brad has lots of time for all of that, but no time for answering my questions. That's fanboy/activist stuff, not science. Science is actually the mindset that the alarmist fanboy/activists ridicule: critical thinking, skepticism, caution, testing, etc. A truly scientific mindset is that of trying as hard as one can to find flaws in any theory. I don't get the impression that Brad, Meatball2, or Billy have ever taken that approach. Their mindset seems to be that of confirmation bias, heroically fighting the silly "denier" rubes, tee hee heeing, and high-fiving. But maybe I'm wrong. I guess Meatball2 is gone, but I'd like to ask Brad and Billy to tell us about their critical examination of the idea of anthropogenic climate change. What are your biggest criticisms? Do you have any? What holes have you found in the theory? What are the biggest weaknesses in whatever theory you have the most confidence? Do you feel that you have to hide them? Show us your critical scientific side rather than just the fanboy side. After all, even the IPCC identifies severe weaknesses. It admits to significant limitations. Anyway, there's no need for the trick of trying to obscure the forest with leaves. It's really as simple as X amount of CO2 over time period Y should equal temperature Z. Sounding like a broken record: In regard to the big picture issue of anthropogenic climate change (and not isolated, smaller pieces of the picture), show us the repeatable, successful predictions. Identify specifically what was the hypothesis, precisely what predictions were made, when were they made, what potential results were identified ahead of time as falsifying or invalidating the hypothesis, what the start and finish dates of the experiment were, provide the unmolested data, the untainted control, and the unmanipulated historical record. --- Great. Let's start with time and falsifiability. How long of a time period must we observe temperatures rising, without leveling off or falling, in order to conclude not only that temperatures are indeed rising enough so as to be considered climactic change, but also primarily caused by human activities? Which models/experiments have identified this timeframe prior to the models' predictions being made, and prior to reality then being observed? Where may I find the details of these types of ground rules? We already know that some scientists are asserting that a 12 to 15 year "pause/hiatus," or even a 15 to 18 year one, is not sufficient to falsify their favorite models. With such assertions, determining exactly when the ground rules were established becomes very important. Without these details, it can seem that people are just making it up as they go along. What are the specific conditions of falsifiability? What results in reality would invalidate the hypothesis? And why? And let's add just one more question. Which single model is the settled science model? I've seen a range of models with a range of predictions. Some have fallen by the wayside over the decades, and we don't hear about them anymore, but, anyway, which of the differing and competing current models settled it once and for all, and what date was it officially determined by the consensus scientists that that single model nailed it? --- And here, again, are the questions that your surrogate/ringer-wannabe, disappearing Brad, couldn't answer: How long of a time period must we observe temperatures rising, without leveling off or falling, in order to conclude not only that temperatures are indeed rising enough so as to be considered climactic change, but also primarily caused by human activities? Which models/experiments have identified this timeframe prior to the models' predictions being made, and prior to reality then being observed? Where may I find the details of these types of ground rules? We already know that some scientists are asserting that a 12 to 15 year "pause/hiatus," or even a 15 to 18 year one, is not sufficient to falsify their favorite models. With such assertions, determining exactly when the ground rules were established becomes very important. Without these details, it can seem that people are just making it up as they go along. What are the specific conditions of falsifiability? What results in reality would invalidate the hypothesis? And why? And let's add just one more question. Which single model is the settled science model? I've seen a range of models with a range of predictions. Some have fallen by the wayside over the decades, and we don't hear about them anymore, but, anyway, which of the differing and competing current models settled it once and for all, and what date was it officially determined by the consensus scientists that that single model nailed it? ----- J

When I read the headline, I knew that they'd have to find a way to somehow work global warming climate doom into the story: Earth’s magnetic pole is on the move, fast. And we don’t know why Earth’s magnetic field is what allows us to exist. It deflects harmful radiation. It keeps our water and atmosphere in place. But now it’s acting up — and nobody knows why. --- In the near future, man-made climate doom will be first suspected to cause this magnetic pole dance, then it will be openly blamed, and finally it will be announced to be settled consensus science, you fucking science deniers! J

Hey, Billy this should excite you -- new and refurbished croakings of doom, fresh methods of conjuring up combinations of crises to arrive at extra-scary scare predictions, which of course include Climate Doom™ and population explosions (Yay, Ehrlich might make a comeback!): Scientists fear end to Mankind not 'decades away' but ‘much sooner’ OUR CIVILISATION is doing pretty well – but how long do we have left? https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/760048/civilisation-collapse-when-end-of-the-world ----- J [WSS: Edited to make the URL 'live']

Oh, no!!! Unnamed scientists have told the AP's reporters that Climate Doom is nearing the point where it can't be reversed?!!! Oh, fucking no!!!!! It must be true if scientists predicted it! Hmmm. The left has been pushing imminent catastrophe for forty years, and the predicted doomsday continues to be pushed back each time that it fails to arrive, but that just means that it MUST be true this time, right? And Trump's bumbling statement that Billy highlighted above in blue is even more proof of Climate Doom! Trump must be wrong because just look at that sentence, tee hee hee! We'd better surrender all of our freedoms immediately to save the planet. Meanwhile, the actual science that I've been requesting for years now -- repeatedly successful predictions of future outcomes -- still hasn't been presented here. Millions of pixels worth of snicker tee hees, irrelevant document dumps, opinions on top of opinions, but still no science. J

Turdeau really liked Butts, but Butts gots to go, even though he dindu nuffin: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/gerald-butts-resigns-as-prime-minister-justin-trudeaus-principal-secretary/ar-BBTLPqf Gerald Butts resigns as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's principal secretary On his way out, of course he had to promote the DOOM™: A well-known policy wonk, Butts has been a vocal defender of the government's Canada Child Benefit and an advocate for carbon pricing as a solution to climate change... ...In his resignation letter, Butts said he hoped fighting global warming "becomes the collective, non-partisan, urgent effort that science clearly says is required. I hope that happens soon." So, I had heard claims that global warming is "settled science," and also that the blame being mankind's is "settled science," but I had not heard that it had been scientifically settled that there's DOOM™ right around the corner, that we're on the fucking verge, that a collective, non-partisan urgent effort involving carbon pricing is "required." When did that become what science "clearly says"? Where can I review that science? Is it the same place that I can review all of the other unsuccessful predictions behind the "settled science"? J

Muh climate doom! Everything is proof of the doom! J

It is interesting to discover that not buying into the climate doom narrative, and not wanting to punish the rich, are examples of craziness. Heh. What is wrong with you? We're going to stick it to those who have more than we do, and you're not going to support us and help us take what we want? You must be mentally ill!

Hello? Billy? Are you pouting? You really, really badly want to pontificate on John Tyndall, but your glorious parade was rained upon? I'm sorry, pumpkin. So, let's have your little Tyndall party!!! Yay!!! Happy Tyndall Day, Billy! Tell us all about him! Did he make any predictions about global warming? Did those predictions come true in reality? Did he take a position on man-made climate change, hypothesize that man's activities would result in certain specific temperature increases, and then successfully predict future outcomes in reality? I know, I know. Predictions are icky. But they're a part of grownup science, Billy. You can't have your exciting doom and your controlling other people if you don't have successful predictions first. Okay, so can we get past Tyndall now? What's next? Let's pick up the pace, okay? What's the next very important non-answer to my questions that we need to explore in-depth? J

I thought that it might be time again to share one of my favorite things about Climate Doom and the alleged consensus. Remeber this? It's what got the whole 97% thing started: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change Notice that the papers were not read, but only the abstracts were considered. And what isn't noted in the above is that even the abstracts weren't actually read, but were only electronically scanned for predetermined words and phrases which might indicate agreement with or rejection of man-blamed climate change. So, they immediately eliminated from consideration two-thirds of the papers due to their not expressing an opinion. And why? Who decided that not expressing an opinion is not a valid position? One must have a strong opinion pro or con, or else one is not counted? Heh. And it gets worse. The deeper you look into it, the more pathetic these people's notions of science is in regard to the alleged consensus. Anyway, Billy, I'm curious if you find anything to criticize in their methodology. Is it what you would call good science? J

I like to listen to the activist fake news program called The Daily on NPR. It's a New York Times product. It presents one side, sneers at the other, includes ominous music and lots of pregnant pauses. The dramatic whispery host "I'm...Mic...heal.........Bar...bar...o........Today on......The.....Dai....ly..........." usually temporarily forgets and slips out of the whispery drama once or twice per episode. He's very, very important. He should be in charge of everything. You should be made to ask him permission for stuff. Anyhoo, last night's episode was a study in political activism pretending to be journalism: When we almost stopped climate change. One side was presented. Outrageous, unsupported claims were made. Countering arguments were not heard, but were caricatured, straw-manned, mocked and vilified -- the very idea of questioning and doubting activist scientists' assertions, even way back in the 80s before climate predictions had had their chance to fail, was painted as evil, and a threat to the very existence of mankind -- and therefore the mindset is that doubt is not to be given a voice, it is not to be tolerated or considered, but needs to be silenced, sued, convicted and punished. Being skeptical and critical was presented as opposing science. There is no place in science for doubt. Scientists are to be trusted, including when making proposals outside of their areas of expertise, such as economics, politics, public policies and their consequences, etc. Human-caused, cataclysmic global warming climate change existential fucking nightmare doom was presented as having been established as factually certain, settled science as far back as 1980. Natural disasters were presented as proof of predicted consequences, while all of the failed predictions were omitted from the program. (When one's group predicts every possible outcome -- i.e. storm activity will increase, storm activity will decrease, storm activity will stay the same -- it's easy to then cite the one prediction that was correct while leaving out any mention of the contradicting predictions of the same event that were wrong, which is why falsifiability is so important to science, and why it's not to be discarded just because activists know that the trick of unfalsifiability will dupe a lot of people). No evidence was presented to support the assertion that global warming is a threat to our existence. It just fucking is, so shut the fuck up. No weighing of the pros versus cons of warmer temperature was considered. One solution was proposed to address the alleged threat to all of our lives. To oppose that solution is to be an evil denier who is harming his fellow man. You're trying to get us all killed, so you need to be snuffed. Give the program a listen. There's much more to it than I've mentioed above. It really is a fascinating study in all of the available methods of shitbaggery. J

And climate doom alarm mongers say exactly the same thing when weather doesn't support their doomsaying. When they feel that they can take advantage of weather as a scare tactic, they conveniently forget how caustically they scolded others on the distinction between weather and climate.

Judy the fucking science denier is dumping cold water on the climate doom money grab again: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/dec/27/judith-curry-sea-level-study-disputes-climate-disa/?fbclid=IwAR13JHSjwAnjj3SlNjzKx8JhVp0oTEe3FBlr4X68_vGI6fwQQq6YS7YuSMw No, I didn't call her a denier, I really didn't. I wouldn't do that. I'm a true scientist, not someone who uses intimidation tactics. Huh? My having falsely accused her of science denial is in my written testimony? Hey, look over there! What's that? Yeah, over there. Behind the thing. Hmmm, I thought that I saw something. Anyway. Um, what were we talking about? Oh, yeah, have you seen the Gaga version of A Star is Born? Heh. J

"If we don't take action, the collapse of our civilizations and the extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon." https://www.npr.org/2018/12/03/672893695/david-attenborough-warns-of-collapse-of-civilizations-at-u-n-climate-meeting We need to control and punish people. The little people. In fact, it may not be enough to just punish them. We need serious sacrifices. Human sacrifices. Blood. That's the only thing that will stop Climate Doom. We've backed off of the scare tactics and ridiculous predictions for a while, so now it's time to bring them back. Most people have forgotten by now how silly our previous doomsaying was, so now it'll be fresh again and more effective, especially if we can get useful idiot celebrities to go along with it, and extra-especially if we can get celebrities with a veneer of an illusion of gravitas, like non-scientist Sir David F. Attenborough! He was knighted by the queen. Were you knighted by the queen? No? Then shut the fuck up. It's settled science. We have to kill some people, lots of them, and enjoy doing it, in order to save existence. J

Oh noes! Muh, muh climate doom! Muh settled science! Muh alarm! Muh, muh, muh panic! https://reason.com/blog/2018/11/14/widely-reported-ocean-warming-study-is-w Widely Reported Alarming Ocean Warming Study Is Wrong Skeptic of catastrophic climate change projections is right about significant errors in alarming new study...