KorbenDallas

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KorbenDallas last won the day on March 31 2019

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About KorbenDallas

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    John Mackey
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  1. Reading some of this thread over Thanksgiving, an interesting mention about the Stockdale Paradox has lead to some thoughts. The main idea of the paradox is, "you need to balance realism with optimism" according to this article about it. This reminds me of Rand's Razor in the cognitive/emotional realm, from an excerpt in ITOE, "The requirements of cognition determine the objective criteria of conceptualization. They can be summed up best in the form of an epistemological “razor”: concepts are not to be multiplied beyond necessity—the corollary of which is: nor are they to be integrated in di
  2. Pfizer said today their vaccine is 90% effective against coronavirus--making the announcement a week AFTER the election. Typically what happens is companies receive information like this then choose when to release the information to the public, so what is the possibility that Pfizer knew they had a 90% effective vaccine before the election? I'd say those chances are very high. I haven't dug deeper, but if this is true, if they had announced the vaccine news before the election, it would have been a game-changer and Trump would have had no problem getting elected again. I'm not one for con
  3. I hope so!!!! She can't get work done, too much ideological stonewalling.
  4. Na it's been grey, I've been going back and forth between Foxnews and CNN maps, CNN has only had AZ grey
  5. That's a false alternative, either earning faith or not. What Trump did earn from me in the last election is respect in how he won, going for the rust belt flipping WI and MI, and I especially do not want a democrat in office. But doesn't have to do with doubt in Trump or lack of faith to say that he is in a bad position in the electoral map at the moment I type this, winning AZ is his only real path to victory--and that path currently has about 550k+ of mail-in votes uncounted and 2/3 of those are in Maricopa County, a democrat county where mail-in votes have been decidedly trending democra
  6. Well I just read this article: "Trump 2024: If President Loses, Most Republicans Back Another Shot—Poll" https://www.newsweek.com/trump-2024-president-loses-republicans-run-again-poll-1544786 Two key takeaways from the article, 1) If Trump loses he can run in 2024 and 2) Bannon was quoted in the article saying if Trump loses in 2020 he fully expects him to run in 2024. As I type this, it isn't looking good for Trump. If he holds GA, NC, PA then he'll need Nevada or Arizona; Arizona a state that the Trump folks are predicting a 30k vote win once all votes have been counted. I have
  7. Boris Johnson contracted COVID-19, went to the hospital, and recovered. Though I believe when Boris went his symptoms were worse than Trump's. I believe Trump will be fine, high recovery rate especially when caught early, and access to the best medical professionals and treatments available to him. My first thought when I read the news was, "Wow, the left is really going to like this." I don't wish anything on the president, but the news will be in a frenzy for while. Considering if he recovers before the election, I have doubts how much it will influence the outcome. Most people already
  8. Professor with history of correctly predicting elections forecasts that Biden will defeat Trump https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/510754-professor-with-history-of-correctly-predicting-elections-forecasts-that American University professor Allan Lichtman, who has a record of accurately predicting presidential races, said he expects former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, to defeat President Trump in November. Lichtman was one of the few forecasters who predicted the Trump's election in 2016. Over decades of observing presidential politics, he has
  9. This video isn't a deepfake video, why are you asking about this video? The twitter video posted earlier in this thread is the one I was talking about. Duh level? I looked for the original video and I couldn't find it, if it's out there then more power to whoever can dig it up---and golly, maybe that's why nobody has posted the original, who woulda thunkit? But what is your position about the twitter video? It's not a deepfake? Is it altered? Does it have artifacts make her appear strange? I'm asking because you compared the twitter video to a video from her youtube channel
  10. Ran across this article today on The Atlantic, A Famous Argument Against Free Will Has Been Debunked For decades, a landmark brain study fed speculation about whether we control our own actions. It seems to have made a classic mistake. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/09/free-will-bereitschaftspotential/597736/ The death of free will began with thousands of finger taps. In 1964, two German scientists monitored the electrical activity of a dozen people’s brains. Each day for several months, volunteers came into the scientists’ lab at the University of Freiburg to g
  11. In the serial killer example, Harris cites prior causes being determinates, "these events precede any conscious decision to act," but because they exist in the serial killers past doesn't mean they caused it. Of course there are plenty of plenty of people that have similar backgrounds but haven't murdered, Sam Harris is identifying conditions in the serial killer's past that could have influenced his act, but they are conditions, not necessary and sufficient conditions, so they exist but they aren't necessarily causal.
  12. Interesting! So I Googled it: U.S. Space Force estimated to cost $13 billion in first five years: memo https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-military-space/u-s-space-force-estimated-to-cost-13-billion-in-first-five-years-memo-idUSKCN1LX2GZ WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Air Force estimated start up costs for a proposed U.S. Space Force, a new military service backed by President Donald Trump, will be around $13 billion in the first five years, according to a Department of Defense memo seen by Reuters. The Air Force, the U.S. military branch that takes responsibility for s