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Everything posted by BaalChatzaf

  1. Judith Curry is a top of the line atmospheric physicist and has written the basic text on Atmospheric thermodynamics. Curry does science. The Climatistas do models and poor models at that. The IPCC in its CMIP=5 bundle has produced shit. Humans do affect climate but the IPCC climatistas have not modeled climate anywhere near correctly. The difference between Curry and you is that she knows thermodynamics thoroughly and you don't.
  2. We didn't follow up our Lunar Landings partially because JFK framed the space race as a pissing context between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. Well we won, right? The Soviets lost. And eventually the Soviets folded. We won't get back in Go To The Moon (or Mars) mode until the PRC does.
  3. Teo Absolvo (thou are absolved). I fully understand your feelings. Schadenfreude is my third favorite hobby. It is well I do not know where the people I despise are buried. If I did, I would pee on their graves.
  4. 1792 Chief Walking Crow 1862 Chief Sitting Bull 1992 Chief Rolling Dice.
  5. No, but what happens in the next 100,000 may be affected by human tinkering. My inclination is to be cautious about entering positive feedback loops in systems whose dynamics we are ignorant of. A good example of a runaway feedback loop is snow avalanches and landslide. What starts of as little balls of snow or rock sliding/rolling downhill can expand to a massive movement of snow or land. This is rather straightforward physics in action. You don't need quantum theory to understand it.
  6. Putting stuff into the atmosphere to block the Sun could trigger off another cold spell like the Little Ice Age. You would get an increase in albedo which would generate weather that decreased the albedo even further. We are basically ignorant of the complexity of our climate system. Pushing our system into a positive feedback loop could produce unintended consequences and unlooked conditions. When you are dealing with something of which you ignorant, beware what you do.
  7. There really is no global climate. There are regional climate regimes governed by latitude, topography, nearness to the oceans, the presence of forests and grasslands, etc. In general climate is warmer in the tropics which receive sunlight nearly directly than at the poles where the sunlight cames in aslant due to the tilt of the earth to the plane of the ecliptic. The climate subsystems interact because heat is transferred from the higher temperature regions to the lower temperature regions by the oceans and atmosphere.
  8. I prefer being charitable and attribute the alarmist outburst as a result of underlying scientific error, government intervention, and exacerbation by the media. As you know the be basic axiom of the media is "if it bleeds, it leads". Back in the 70's the magazines, newspapers and t.v. we broadcasting the coming Ice Age showing New York City covered by a massive glacier. The Statue of Liberty's head and torch arm extended from a massive ice cube. Then warming caught on. So you see New York City well inundated by high sea level with Liberty's head and arm barely above the water line. Combine that with Paul Erlich's grim predictions over overpopulation with shortages of just about everything and then add The Club of Rome's fatalistic predictions of how the world is going to hell in a handbasket. The combined pessimism produces an image very much captured in the motion picture "Soylent Green". Well, none of this doom occurred. The models that the pessimist and the alarmists relied on were just plain wrong. However we should keep in mind that human activity does indeed affect the environment. Today you can see photographs and t.v. images of Chinese cities with air thick with pollution. The Chinese currently are the world's leading air polluters. The air in major Chinese cities looks thick enough that it can be cut into cubes and shipped abroad. Here in the U.S there is the infamous atmosphere of Los Angeles. Not so long ago (60-70 years) the atmosphere of Pittsburg was grey with coal dust. Fortunately that problem has been addressed since. Very effective steps have been taken to reduce air and water pollution caused by the disposal of industrial waste and human waste. Unfortunately the major third world nations such as India and emerging industrial giants such as China have yet to deal with the pollution problems they are causing. Even so, there is nothing that humans could do to turn the Earth into Venus. Human technology has only the minutest effect on the world compared to natural effects. The human race is capable of rendering itself extinct, but there is nothing humans can do to sterilize this planet of life. Natural will do that in about 1.5 billion years and humans will not be around then.
  9. Climate, roughly speaking is averaged weather. By convention climate is a sequence of averages taken over a moving 30 year window. 30 years is small enough to pick up significant average weather changes. The idea is to get data of change without be biased by the daily variations. 30 year averaging smooths the daily variation and still picks up longer range trends.
  10. Climate is, roughly speaking, average weather over a moving 30 year interval. 30 years is considered the smallest interval that can indicate climate conditions. Several things are averaged; temperature, humidity, precipitation, growing season length etc. Climate change is the sequence of climate data points (each computered as stated prior over a 30 year interval). A sequence of climate data points as a function of time defines climate change. To be more exact that should be regional climate. There is no One and Only climate for this planet. There are several concurrent climate regimes acting and interaction over the planet. For example, climate in the polar regions is colder than climate in the tropics. That must be for the simple reason that the tropics get direct sunlight and the polar regions get sunlight at a slant. The various climate regimes must change over time because the Earth is never in thermodynamic equilibrium with the surround space. Our distance from the sun varies over time, the earth precesses around its axis of rotation, the Sun's irradiance varies over time and cosmic ray impact varies over time. Cosmic Rays!!???. Yes. Cosmic rays affect how water vapor in the atmosphere condense around dust particles in the air which affects the process of cloud formation. Clouds are the Venetian Blinds or the various climate regimes and have a significant effect on temperature. The major flaw in the premise of the Warmists is that there is an Ideal Climate from which our planet is forced to diverge because of CO2 production (mostly from burning hydrocarbon fuels). There is no Ideal Climate and there never was. Our general climate is a succession of ice ages separated by warmer interglacial periods. The last major ice age started about three million years ago and we are still in that ice age, enjoying one of several mild interglacial periods. Technically (this is a technical definition) we are in an ice age as long as there is permanent ice at the poles. Even our current interglacial period is marked by periods of warming a cooling. That last freeze-you-ass-off cooling was the (so-called) Little Ice Age which was in reality a cool periods that lasted from 1300 c.e. to 1815 c.e. (roughly). Since 1815 the world has been warming a few degrees from purely natural causes. Since 1850 the rate of increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has risen rapidly. That is because humans are burning stuff and producing CO2 faster than it can be absorbed by plants, weather of limestone rocks and dissolution of CO2 in the oceans. Since this rise in CO2 is concurrent with an already existing rise in temperature the alarmists have decided it is our fault because of the concurrent rise in CO2 concentration. In fact the most powerful greenhouse gas (so-called) is water vapor, not CO2 or methane (CH4). Of a 1.5 deg rise in temperature since 1815 humans may have cause a 0.5 deg. rise portion of the 1.5 deg rise. The alarmists are alarmed (alarmists are always alarmed by one thing or another) because of the rate CO2 addition to the atmosphere. So climate is changing. It is always changing and will continue to change for the next 1.5 billion years until the Sun becomes so hot it evaporates the oceans. Our vast oceans are why the Earth has not become Venus. The Sun will burn hotter and hotter as the hydrogen in the Sun is fused into helium and the helium is fused into carbon. The earth will eventually be baked dry and life will cease to exist on the surface as the oceans are evaporated into space. This will occur several billion years before the Earth itself is gasified by an expanding Sun (the Red Giant phase). That will be about 5 billion years from now. Our last 3 million years has ben a succession of ice age glaciation with intermediate mild periods. The next several million years should be about the same. Here is a graph:
  11. The key to the warming effect of the greenhouse gases is the stephan-boltzmann law. The greenhouse gasses absorb heat and reradiate in all directions. Which means half the heat absorbed radiated downward . The effect of the greenhouse gasses is slow the rate at which energy in the infrared frequencies is radiated into space (which is the cold sink for Earth's heat). According to the stephan boltzmann law the temperature will rise until the outward flux of energy is equal to inbound flux of energy (from the Sun). Please see:–Boltzmann_law
  12. But it won't last. Mammalian species have a relatively short shelf life compared to insects and single cell organisms.
  13. The same thing can be done with a string and two thumbtacks. Please see
  14. The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), alternatively "Eocene thermal maximum 1" (ETM1), and formerly known as the "Initial Eocene" or "Late Paleocene Thermal Maximum", was a time period with more than 8 °C warmer global average temperature than today. The CO2 level was at 550 ppm. This was 55 million years ago. This very warm period lasted 200,000 years and did NOT produce an unstoppable warming. Life flourished subsequent to this period. Eventually the CO2 level and temperature levels went down and several million years of hard ice age and glaciation followed. If the PETM did not turn us into Venus, nothing we are doing now will. Humans do not possess the technology to sterilize this planet. However there is little doubt that we could kill ourselves off if we set our minds to it. But no matter what we do, the Earth will remain an abode of life for the next billion years barring an exceedingly large celestial body colliding with Earth and busting the planet into little pieces.
  15. The meteorologists consider a 30 year running average of temperature, humidity, ghg levels. sea levels cloud cover as a climate data point. One day's weather doth not make climate. 30 years average weather is a climate data point.
  16. On any given day of any given year there is always somewhere, where the weather is "interesting". Weather is NOT climate.
  17. not true. She provided a good expression of what I was thinking about (ugh!) government, politics and the state. On scientific and mathematical issues she was a great Hollywood script writer.
  18. Science parted company with metaphysics over 100 years go. The only philosopher that physicists mention without spitting is Carl Popper.
  19. if he starts out from a pole he will end up back at the same place. Look at case 2 where he starts at at a non polar point. Unless step 2 of his journey ends at exactly the same point step 1 ended he does not get back because terminates step 2 and a different meridian of longitude form the meridian he was on at step 1.