it begins...

[Selene]

Bob writes:

Define imminent.

Extremely likely this week.

Definitely this month.

That's my opinion, and I'm sticking to it.

Greg

Today is October 1. What happened?

The opening moves of WW III.

I thought you played chess?

A...

[Brant Gaede]

Brant writes:

"It has begun" only means you will not stop.

Why should an opinion about the timing of the beginning of World War Three bother you? You're free to deny that WWIII is "real data" and that doesn't bother me one bit.

As events unfold, they will show which one of our opinions is right.

Greg

My opinion is your epistemology is all screwed up, but not the psycho as in psycho-epistemology.

--Brant

[moralist]

I use the objective reality of how my own life actually turns out

as the sole indicator of the validity of my acting on what I know to be true.

What else could there be with that power

except the just and deserved consequences of my own actions?

Surely not the subjective opinions of others.

Greg

[moralist]

Jerry writes:

Today is October 1. What happened?

Nothing much...

[william.scherk]

Brant writes:

"It has begun" only means you will not stop.

Why should an opinion about the timing of the beginning of World War Three bother you? You're free to deny that WWIII is "real data" and that doesn't bother me one bit.

Yikes.

Greg is almost promising 'real data' marking out yesterday/today as THE date a worldwide military conflagration was set into play, a coming conflagration that will push aside WWII from top rankings in death and destruction -- a mighty military convulsion spanning the globe and fought on multiple fronts in many lands, engulfing Europe once more, maiming all nations but Ireland and Switzerland, Finland and Spain.

Forget the Biggest, Baddest Financial Crisis the USA has ever suffered ... forget the predictions of currency and market meltdown on September 13/14 past. Oracle has filed those predictions in the bin. We are moving on. Johnathan Cahn is on vacation. Shmita Whoopee is subsiding into the general background Christian end-times whoopee.

It's war, kids. Big war. The biggest international conflict this old earth has ever seen. Bigger than the Great War, bigger than the war that sent hundreds of millions to the grave by 1946.

World War III

That's right. It started today. It didn't start in 2011 in Syria, it didn't start in 2012. It didn't start in eastern Ukraine or the Crimea, and it didn't start in Israel. It started when Russian warplanes struck civilian centres far from ISIS lines. It started with Russian entry into the quagmire that is Syria. It started the moment Russian sorties dropped unguided fragmentation bombs in Idlib and Homs. It started the moment Russian arms were responsible for civilian deaths. It started with their lie that they were here to fight ISIS. It started the moment Russia took control of airspace of the Alawite heartland AKA Assadistan.

Forget about the Sarin massacre in 2013. Forget about the tortures documented by Caesar released in 2014. Do not consult any war correspondents to test out the announcement of the Greatest War Humankind has ever experienced.

-- an FYI for Greg: the Russians enforce conscription. Each year a new crop is inducted, buzz-cut and trained. There is zero evidence that Russian means to deploy 150,000 ground troops to Syria.

On the one hand, I can see a quick pivot from finance to war when predictions fail and Cahn goes to Vegas. On the other hand, when I look for evidence of World War, I don't see it. What am I missing that I am not convinced by Oracle? Greg, as you roll out the details of your new promotion, what are a few signs of the inevitable escalation and broadening of the just-born war? What should we be looking for, what events are sure to come in the next days, weeks, and months?

If the world war envisioned does not actually get under way till next century, is this new promotion valid even then?

My personal subjective point of view -- informed by paying attention to Syria since 2011 -- is that what we are witnessing in that country and in Iraq are in a sense the final battles of the second world war, and in some ways a continuation of the first as well. Because none of these countries got what Europe got at the end of the world conflicts: peace treaties that sorted out national borders and interstate order.

When the Ottomans were defeated, when the Nazis were defeated in the Middle East, no treaties were made by the subject peoples of the winners. There was no government left standing in its old forms. All order was imposed from on imperial high, whether as a mandate or an occupation. The 'independent' nations of the war zone had no say in their borders or their status.

Almighty states still seethe with the repercussions of wars that did not end in peace but in armed truce. The great dictatorship of Assad is a beast born of a war without end. an armed truce with Israel, years of alternating chaos and strongmen in a direct line from the end-days of the Ottoman era.

The great American Syria expert Joshua Landis sees the Syria/Iraq wars as a part of a The Great Sorting Out, of ethnicities and religious sects. He sees that a Sunni minority cannot rule Iraq in perpetuity, nor can a Shia/Alawite minority rule a Sunni majority in Syria. The sorting is hideously bloody and will be bloodier still, but in the end, guns will still and reconstruction begin and commerce reawaken.

In a realistic World War III scenario, one would need to identify the alliances at hand, and sketch out how each entity will choose to enter the war and on which side. In addition, the scenario must lay out the aims and objectives of the leagues of actors. Greg writes in short bursts of proverbs and equations, so I am not expecting much detail out of him.

It begins. It does dishes. It takes a pee. It belts out Broadway show tunes. It never ends. It starts again. It dies off. It is reborn.

It being, er, mutable.

[Selene]

William:

Do you not see a difference between Assad killing his own people and the establishment of a Russian air base and port in a sovereign country not within Russia's "natural" sphere of influence?

A...

[moralist]

William writes:

On the one hand, I can see a quick pivot from finance to war...

Well, events can be like that.

While you're looking in one place, it's in another. World Wars begin with trigger events.

In my subjective opinion, Russian military bombing our allies in Syria is a trigger event for WWIII. Time will tell if it is or it isn't.

Greg

[moralist]

Adam writes:

Do you not see a difference between Assad killing his own people and the establishment of a Russian air base and port in a sovereign country not within Russia's "natural" sphere of influence?

The last time Russia made an military move like that was 35 years ago. I'd say that's noteworthy.

Greg

[Brant Gaede]

Adam writes:

Do you not see a difference between Assad killing his own people and the establishment of a Russian air base and port in a sovereign country not within Russia's "natural" sphere of influence?

The last time Russia made an military move like that was 35 years ago. I'd say that's noteworthy.

Greg

Yes, and it deserves detailed and cogent analysis.

--Brant

[Selene]

Adam writes:

Do you not see a difference between Assad killing his own people and the establishment of a Russian air base and port in a sovereign country not within Russia's "natural" sphere of influence?

The last time Russia made an military move like that was 35 years ago. I'd say that's noteworthy.

Greg

I assume you mean Afghanistan in 1979-80 right Greg?

[william.scherk]

William:

Do you not see a difference between Assad killing his own people and the establishment of a Russian air base and port in a sovereign country not within Russia's "natural" sphere of influence?

Don't get me wrong. I am disgusted beyond measure at the Russian escalation. It is also a significant event -- Russia is flying sorties over the same country that the US-led coalition flies. The coalition targets ISIS and the Syrian side targets the varied stripes of rebellion closer to its heartland.

Russia and Syria have been allies since the cold war began. The military port is old. The Russian air forces are new. Like I said, significant. Deadly wrong and stupid, and due to lead to more refugee flows.

So, I am sure we agree at how ugly and stupid is the Russian move. Is it a sure trigger of WWIII? I don't think so.

William writes:

On the one hand, I can see a quick pivot from finance to war...

Well, events can be like that.

While you're looking in one place, it's in another. World Wars begin with trigger events.

In my subjective opinion, Russian military bombing our allies in Syria is a trigger event for WWIII. Time will tell if it is or it isn't.

Okay. How much time will tell? It isn't clear to me if all of us will be dead before we call your bet off.

And Russian intervention is a tricky thing to predict beyond the obvious: Russia will bomb targets chosen by the Syrian leadership.

Anyway, Who is in the air bombing in the Middle East Syria-Iraq theatre? Well, Iraq, US, Canada, Australia, UK, France, Turkey, Russia, etc. To date.

What makes yesterday/today the key date in a conflict zone that has been raging since 2012 (due to the war-supplies sent it to rebels by such as Qatar, Kuwait, Saudia Arabia, UAE)?

I'll meet you more than half-way and call it The Great Middle Eastern War. But why call it now, and not in earlier years? The Russian intervention on behalf of Assad will not interfere with Western attention to ISIS. By its own assertion of power, it means to prop up Assad. Just by today's actions many Syrians became enraged with Russia, Again, a local rage, not a world-changer.

So, disgusted by Russia's ploy to flex its muscles on the world stage? Yeah. Could they find no better friend to stand beside than the brutal Syrian dictatorship? No, well, maybe North Korea. What an alliance. Iran, Russia, Hezbollah, the Assad regime. This is going to solve the basic grievance in the Syrian war?

All this aside, should any 'event' trigger be assigned to Greg's It Begins Bingo 'win' column payout pool? I mean, nice try, nice pivot, but no.

[moralist]

Brant writes:

Yes, and it deserves detailed and cogent analysis.

Well, you'll never get that from me!

I have nothing to do with those macro world events as they all lie within the spheres of personal influence and personal responsibility of others. I'm just observing this impending flood from the safety of my ark.

I also have nothing to do with the weak feminized leftist US government that laid down to set the stage for those events, as there are NOT enough Americans in America today to create a decent morally strong government.

And like I said, America had already forfeit its moral physical protection (2001),

...and forfeit it's moral financial providence (2008)...

...and now it has forfeit its moral authority to lead the world (2015).

Greg

[Selene]

William:

I was responding to JT because he jumps in and splits.

At any rate, this was already prepared by the Russians. This type of deployment takes time and supply lines.

ISIS becomes more powerful in Iraq for a while...remember ISIS wants Armageddon that is why their Mahdi chose the town he announced the Caliphate from in order to fulfill prophesy.

I have seen many conspiracy/prophetic theories on Jesus Christ manipulating the Hebrew/Jewish prophesies for his own political power. A pre-O'bama.

The Passover Plot being one of them.

ISIS is supposed to be whittled down to 5,000 in the final battle around that town and then the 12 Immam comes out of the well built for him and they take over the world.

Me, I still pulling for the roaches over that scum surviving.

A...

[moralist]

Markets are back at panic levels, says Credit Suisse

By Sara Sjolin

Published: Oct 2, 2015 8:15 a.m. ET

MARKETS ARE BACK AT PANIC LEVELS, SAYS CREDIT SUISSE

If it feels like youre reliving the market jitters of the Great Recession and eurozone crisis, its probably because you are.

During this week, global risk appetite dropped to panic levels for the first time since January 2012, according to Credit Suisses Global Risk Appetite Index. That was back when investors feared a breakup of the euro bloc, grappled with unsustainably high sovereign borrowing costs and freaking out about the spillover from Greece.

Before that, the index reached panic state around the onset of the 2008 financial crisis, after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the U.S., during the dotcom bubble and after Black Monday in 1987. [all during Shemitahs] Get the picture?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/markets-are-back-at-panic-levels-says-credit-suisse-2015-10-02

[william.scherk]

My staff at the Secular Shmita Sausage institute came up with a lovely synthesis of the ups and downs of this thread and its topic and its leader and advocate. Sometimes the predictions are stressed, sometimes not. Sometimes Greg dodges, sometimes he weaves, sometimes he ducks and runs, sometimes he snips and snipes.

Since the sky didn't fall on the date God+Greg had circled on the calendar of doom, the thread will inevitably drift and become the economic bad news, god planned it dumping ground. That'll be fun for all. Here is the GregGod initial claim for utter financial doom and collapse, from July 9:

• Biggest stock market collapse, September 17th, 2001
• Biggest stock market collapse, September 29th, 2008
• Biggest stock market collapse, September 13th, 2015.

Highlights of the 27 odd pages, all from our moralist:

1. I do know that the climax to this confluence of events will occur on September 13th this year.
2. You people had better get ready for what's coming
3. I'm 67 and will work until I'm dead.
4. America will be shaken again in 2015, just as it was in 2001 and 2008.
5. This time... it's the Apocalypse.
6. I have no idea of what's going to happen.
7. I'm just looking at a 2,500 year old moral template that someone else noticed is repeating itself.
8. Just to be clear, William, I didn't say nothing might happen. Just like the liberal bureaucracy, your crooked government imprinted mind can't even get things straight. In my opinion, something is definitely going to happen just like it already did in 2001 and 2008, both times on exactly the last day of a 7th Shemitah year.
9. There is going to be a final pope. During his reign, the Roman Catholic Church will be judged. It's no end of entertainment watching to see whether or not predictions come to pass
10. Soon there will be just one little last thing that will finally set everything cascading off the cliff.
11. In my opinion, what happens this time will make the last one seem like a picnic... as each succeeding event has been bigger than the last.
12. Fun is always inherent in whatever I do.
13. The idea that another catastrophe will strike America again on exactly the same day is derived from an Old Testament Biblical prophecy in the book of Isaiah which is repeating in exactly the same way here today as it did in Israel 2,500 years ago. You get one more month of free mocking, so make the best of it.
14. You got about 30 days left to ~feel~ secure Bob... before your casino bets get wiped off the table.
15. I believe that there will be another collapse of the corrupted debt based system on Monday, September 14th 2015 that will be similar to the debt collapse of September 2001 and the debt collapse of September 2008.
16. You don't need a freaking prophet to see what's coming. Secularized leftist America pissed away it's moral protection and it's economic providence. What happens as a result of that forfeiture is a foregone conclusion.
17. Secular leftist "separation of church and state" America has crapped on God......and that has consequences. By the way, stocks are dropping again... but this is NOTHING compared to what's coming...
18. If you think your secularized America can get away with taking a great big steaming dump on God and continue to receive His moral protection and economic providence... ...you're in for a rude awakening, you dumb fucking suckers.
19. 2,500 years ago, Isaiah warned the Israelites that if they didn't stop practicing iniquities like sacrificing their children on altars to pagan idols, their land would be completely destroyed.
20. At this very moment, secularists are busy writing God out of America's founding... and when they finally succeed,,, America will be destroyed.
21. America is going to hit the ground... HARD.
22. The definition of marriage has been a bond between a man and a woman for thousands of years. You're a secularist, so the words "sacred" and "profane" are meaningless to you. Which is why you bought into the popular secular leftist insanity of sticking your dick into another man's shit and calling it "marriage".
23. AIDS is just one result of your secular values, Peter... and that's both unreasonable and inhumane.
24. The three pillars of the secular political religion of leftism are dope, perversion and abortion.
25. 14 September 2015: Looks like a very quiet uneventful day so far. Nothing has happened with the potential of becoming a trigger event.
26. 15 September 2015 America is failing for lack of decent values.
27. 19 September Futures are tanking... looks like a bloodbath by the 22nd. I still hold by my opinion that another even greater US economic collapse is imminent.
28. Extremely likely this week. Definitely this month. That's my opinion, and I'm sticking to it.
29. In my opinion it will be the same as 2001 and 2008 only greater this time. America degenerated enough to forfeit it's moral protection and economic providence in 2001. Right now it's fair game to get rattled again. This time it'll be right down to its foundations.
30. Nassim Taleb tells a story about people like Bob. He's the turkey that lives 1,000 days believing that everything will continue just like it has... ...until it gets slaughtered on the 1,001st day.
31. In Capitalism, there are no guarantees and always successes and failures.
32. Heterosexual AIDS is the result of the homosexual practice of anal intercourse which is completely imbedded into African culture. Anal tissue is not designed for intercourse and abrades so that the virus spreads as easily in heterosexual African females as with homosexual males. And that's how people destroy themselves. It's completely self inflicted.
33. AIDS is the most heavily politically protected disease in the world by leftists, because it is primarily associated with one of the three Holy Sacraments of their secular religion... perversion.
34. By the way, tonight there will be a truly spectacular total lunar eclipse. It is the fourth of the Blood Moon series of four over the last two years... and millions of Muslim males are pouring out of the Middle East... ...quite literally an invasion.
35. Peter, I'm sorry if you suffered any personal harm from a prediction that didn't come to pass.

Edited October 5, 2015 by william.scherk

[william.scherk]

William:

I was responding to JT because he jumps in and splits.

Uh, sure. Maybe next time you are responding to Jerry you won't introduce the response with my name ...

William:

Do you not see a difference between Assad killing his own people and the establishment of a Russian air base and port in a sovereign country not within Russia's "natural" sphere of influence?

(I've answered this above, but thought to mention now -- to Jerry -- Russia has been an ally of Syria since Soviet times. I don't know if Jerry sees a difference between Assad bombing, starving, sieging, imprisoning and torturing his own people -- and Russia acting as an extension of his overburdened air forces.

Jerry?)

ISIS is supposed to be whittled down to 5,000 in the final battle around that town and then the 12 Immam comes out of the well built for him and they take over the world.

I think I might be mixing up Sunni and Shia eschatology. The Muslim end-times beliefs have some strange parallels to Christian end-times theology, and are just as perplexing for an atheist like me. See the section on 'signs' at Wikipedia's entry for Islamic eschatology. See also a neat little article at Middle East Alternatives. These paragraphs make for gruesome reading:

Millenarianism has been an integral part of the foundational bases of ISIS. An inductive reading of ISIS’s scholastic and applied ideology point to five such bases shaping the outlook of the ISIS’s world view: (1) scientism — truth can be determined methodically, it is one and irrefutable; (2) historicism — the revelation was graduated, with its later elements abrogating the earlier; (3) harshness — of any two possible decisions, the one to be adopted is the harsher; (4) sectarianism — separation from anyone who disagrees, and their denunciation, is mandated; and (5) millenarianism — ISIS is the fulfillment of history. With the first four methodological orientations present the form of ISIS’s ideology, millenarianism assumes the central role as the engine shaping its purpose.

The reliance on the “beyond” imbues all facets of activity at ISIS. In its recruitment, indoctrination, and deployment of its operatives — at all ranks, from foot soldiers to organizational leaders — ISIS throroughly conflates the physical and the metaphysical. Even when perceived by outsiders as a “cult of death” devaluing life and reducing human beings to ephemeral tools, the convictions held by ISIS followers are based on the equation of life and afterlife, or even on the subservience of the former to the latter. Through ecstatic practice — usually undeclared as such in keeping with the stated rejection of mysticism — ISIS adepts achieve a state of physical self-negation through which death is viewed as a welcome rite of passage, the quality of which, through courage and bravor, determines the value of the higher stage of existence.

The blurring of the dividing line between the material and the spiritual, at the individual level, is mirrored by the diffusion between the historical and the eschatological at the collective level. The individual is encouraged to follow the path delinetated by dogma towards the afterlife, while the State, as the collective, is ushered towards the realization of the eschatological sequence.

The trajectories in effect thus suggest that ISIS would indeed proceed towards the fulfillment of the Millenium. Upping the ante through the proclamation of the advent of the Mahdi would be the expected course, once the effect of the declaration of the Caliphate, framed in eschatological terms, loses its potency. Such a motion, however, would be possible only if pre-requisite conditions are met.

The main obstacle facing the declaration of ISIS as host to the Mahdi is the lack of consensus, in the domain of Sunni Islam, on relevant traditions describing the Mahdi and his advent. The details of the figure and the event vary considerably, with abundant contradictions and gaps that have convinced scholars through the ages of the futility of the pursuit of once reconciled narrative. Today, however, students of the tradition and scholars sympathetic to ISIS are energetically engaged in a revision of the corpus — on the basis of ISIS’s own methodological orientations, re-assessing traditions on the basis of their support of the emergence of ISIS, while reconciling traditions towards the creation of a normative account. Despite higher level claims of eschatological fulfillment, ISIS has not officially endorsed the coalescing normative account in its official media, but has allowed multiple references in its semi-official outlets, while not objecting to its deliberate promotion by supporters. The pattern of propositions bubbling up from the supporter’s domain through semi-official media before acquiring canonical status has already been established on a number of crucial decisions. The most notable example was the declaration of the Caliphate.

[BaalChatzaf]

You got about 30 days left to ~feel~ secure Bob... before your casino bets get wiped off the table.

Greg

80 days and counting. My bank account is still intact and nothing has been wiped out. Don't quit your day job. You are not much of a prophet.

[Brant Gaede]

You got about 30 days left to ~feel~ secure Bob... before your casino bets get wiped off the table.

Greg

80 days and counting. My bank account is still intact and nothing has been wiped out. Don't quit your day job. You are not much of a prophet.

He sure is. I took what he said and reversed it and it came true.

--Brant

[moralist]

Bob writes:

80 days and counting. My bank account is still intact and nothing has been wiped out. Don't quit your day job. You are not much of a prophet.

I think your math is off, Bob...

80 days before today was July 19th, and no one said anything was going to happen then. It's been 21 days since September 13th.

I had nothing riding on the prediction so it's impossible to for me lose financially no matter what happens.

The market looks to finish down about 2% this year which makes it the worst year for stocks since 2008.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/03/investing/stock-market-worst-year-since-2008/index.html

This is what the recovery looks like...

Greg

[moralist]

William, are you physically impaired?

Greg

[Brant Gaede]

Great graphic, Greg.

--Brant

where and how do I apply (I'm sooooo hungry!)

thinking of disability