Sign of the Times Middle East Style


Michael Stuart Kelly

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Okay, you the US are officially screwed, so you say. Care to elaborate on that point?

WSS,

I'm assuming that Adam made his comment because of the source.

Ex-President Jimmy Carter is widely reviled for his frequent pronouncements about foreign affairs, including his blessing of elections widely understood to have been rigged.

Robert Campbell

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We, the US are officially screwed...

Former President Carter guesses Egypt's Mubarak 'will have to leave'

Okay, you the US are officially screwed, so you say. Care to elaborate on that point?

I ask because you earlier had laid out the correct US policy for Egypt:

1) the U.S.should support all freedom movements, covertly and overtly where ever they exist;

2) the U.S. should finance them;

3) the U.S. should also utilize extremely aggressive intelligence resources to eliminate oppressive dictatorships where ever they exist and whether they are monarchial, fascist, communist, theological, etc.

4) here is the tricky part, it should be done with the least use of military power.

William:

First step in moving forward with a rational Egyptian policy would be to immediately end all ethanol subsidies, credits etc.

Second, announce that the quantitative easing policy has ceased to exist.

Third, immediately direct the House and Senate to pass a flat across the board decrease in all federal spending except for defense spending.

Defense spending cuts would be in a separate piece of legislation which would be built around a re-framed foreign policy.

Fourth, an immediate fifty (50 %) decrease in the capital gains tax and the corporate income tax.

Fifth, an immediate end to offshore drilling in the US, opening Anwar to drilling and a national program to build nuclear power plants on a crash program basis, our Hiroshima moment.

Sixth, a declaration of the US's commitment to an immediate interim food support program which would be populated by unemployed American workers who would be paired up with under and unemployed Egyptian workers. A stipulation in the program would be that anyone in the American employ who corrupted the program would serve a minimum sentence of ten (10) years serving meals at our Guantanamo Bay facility that the President promised would be closed within a year of his election.

More later.

By the way, I was surprised to see this Reuters story pop up today based on our ElBaradei discussion.

(Reuters) - Egyptians on the streets of Cairo said on Monday they had reservations about opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei, who has offered to act as transitional leader to prepare Egypt for democratic elections.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/31/us-egypt-elbaradei-idUSTRE70U28H20110131

Adam

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Okay, you the US are officially screwed, so you say. Care to elaborate on that point?

WSS,

I'm assuming that Adam made his comment because of the source.

Ex-President Jimmy Carter is widely reviled for his frequent pronouncements about foreign affairs, including his blessing of elections widely understood to have been rigged.

Robert Campbell

Robert:

You always see right through my subterfuges.

Adam

pouting and turning back to his secret decoder ring room

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Okay, you the US are officially screwed, so you say. Care to elaborate on that point?

I'm assuming that Adam made his comment because of the source.

I get that Carter is not on Adam's Xmas card list, sure, but I don't know how Carter's Sunday School lessons seals the USA's doom.

Ex-President Jimmy Carter is widely reviled for his frequent pronouncements about foreign affairs, including his blessing of elections widely understood to have been rigged.

I understand that Carter stands near Pol Pot/Obama/Dracula/Whittaker Chambers in the rankings of evul, sure -- in Objectivish estimations at least. But Carter stands in the middle of the pack in approval ratings by the general public -- at least as tracked by Gallup.* I sometimes think Adam exists in an alternative universe, however, with his birther-ish insistance that Obama is obviously a marxist. By Adam's standards, all Canadians labour under a Trotskyite regime, and inhabit an alien horror world far beyond Obamadracula's communist fantasies. I mean, using Adam's criteria, every single modern Canucki PM has also been to the left of Obamadracula, including our current PM.

For a Canadian observer like me, that kind of thinking is kooked out nonsense.

But that's not what puzzles me here. I don't see a gaping chasm between Adam's prescriptions for US Egypt policy as excerpted from his earlier post and the observations of Carter. Maybe Adam agrees with everything Carter said, but feels his flesh crawl at the idea that a monster like Carter can share his opinions. Maybe if Adam agrees in some way with the former President, the USA cannot stand.

I mean, what does Adam take issue with? what's the difference?

-- Carter watches Al Jazeera closely. So does Adam

-- Carter believes the Egyptian leader has become more politically corrupt. Adam won't deny this

-- Carter says Mubarak has perpetuated himself in office. Adam can't deny this obvious remark.

-- Carter guesses Mubarak will have to leave. Adam's guess is the same.

-- Carter tells us that US presidents privately tell Mubarak that 'you have got to have freedom.' This is not only part of Adam's prescriptions, but a fact that Adam highlighted in his reporting from the Wikileaks.

So, forgive me, Robert for hoping Adam could explain his "we are officially screwed" comment with regard to Carter.

I am not asking for the use of decoder rings, just a straightforward explanation of how the Carter statements should be taken as proof that "we are officially screwed." If Adam can explain how he gets to his conclusion using the example of the Carter story, great. If not, it gives me another data point in my assessment of Adam's grasp on reality and his ability to sustain rational discussion.

As for your reading of Carter, I do appreciate it, and understand your context. I do have a question based on what you wrote above, though.

Which elections has Carter 'blessed' that were actually rigged? I checked the relevant pages at the Carter Center.

_________________

** kudnfan2rkkn4cpuo0aq7a.gif

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Okay, you the US are officially screwed, so you say. Care to elaborate on that point?

I'm assuming that Adam made his comment because of the source.

I get that Carter is not on Adam's Xmas card list, sure, but I don't know how Carter's Sunday School lessons seals the USA's doom.

Ex-President Jimmy Carter is widely reviled for his frequent pronouncements about foreign affairs, including his blessing of elections widely understood to have been rigged.

I understand that Carter stands near Pol Pot/Obama/Dracula/Whittaker Chambers in the rankings of evul, sure -- in Objectivish estimations at least. But Carter stands in the middle of the pack in approval ratings by the general public -- at least as tracked by Gallup.* I sometimes think Adam exists in an alternative universe, however, with his birther-ish insistance that Obama is obviously a marxist. By Adam's standards, all Canadians labour under a Trotskyite regime, and inhabit an alien horror world far beyond Obamadracula's communist fantasies. I mean, using Adam's criteria, every single modern Canucki PM has also been to the left of Obamadracula, including our current PM.

For a Canadian observer like me, that kind of thinking is kooked out nonsense.

But that's not what puzzles me here. I don't see a gaping chasm between Adam's prescriptions for US Egypt policy as excerpted from his earlier post and the observations of Carter. Maybe Adam agrees with everything Carter said, but feels his flesh crawl at the idea that a monster like Carter can share his opinions. Maybe if Adam agrees in some way with the former President, the USA cannot stand.

I mean, what does Adam take issue with? what's the difference?

-- Carter watches Al Jazeera closely. So does Adam

-- Carter believes the Egyptian leader has become more politically corrupt. Adam won't deny this

-- Carter says Mubarak has perpetuated himself in office. Adam can't deny this obvious remark.

-- Carter guesses Mubarak will have to leave. Adam's guess is the same.

-- Carter tells us that US presidents privately tell Mubarak that 'you have got to have freedom.' This is not only part of Adam's prescriptions, but a fact that Adam highlighted in his reporting from the Wikileaks.

So, forgive me, Robert for hoping Adam could explain his "we are officially screwed" comment with regard to Carter.

I am not asking for the use of decoder rings, just a straightforward explanation of how the Carter statements should be taken as proof that "we are officially screwed." If Adam can explain how he gets to his conclusion using the example of the Carter story, great. If not, it gives me another data point in my assessment of Adam's grasp on reality and his ability to sustain rational discussion.

As for your reading of Carter, I do appreciate it, and understand your context. I do have a question based on what you wrote above, though.

Which elections has Carter 'blessed' that were actually rigged? I checked the relevant pages at the Carter Center.

_________________

** kudnfan2rkkn4cpuo0aq7a.gif

Wow, at this rate, it looks like Carter will overtake George W. Bush's cellar position by sometime in 2013, if not sooner! Interesting statistics. Thanks, WSS.

REB

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What have the Egyptians done for us lately?

If by us you mean USA and its allies, Egypt has maintained peace with Israel, cooperated and coordinated security with Israel against Hamas, stood against the Mullahs in Iran, and generally supported long-term strategic policies of the US during the last seven US presidencies.

Hope that answers your question.

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William:

I voted for Carter for US President.

I do not have the opinion of Canada that you allude to in your post.

Gallop polls are suspect as reflecting what the voting population of the US believes and that is due to their methodology.

Carter is a good man who should stick to his habitat work. He is not competent in the areas of economics or global politics.

Carter is anti Israeli. Some folks have stated that he is an outright anti-Semite. I do not think that poorly of him.

Where you get the idea that there is a connection between the fact that O'biwan has not produced the alleged "long form birth certificate" and him being a marxist is completely beyond me.

O'biwan is the President and he cannot be removed whether he was or was not born in Hawaii. He is the son of a United States citizen and, therefore, fits my understanding of what our Constitution requires in terms of a "natural born person."

What I question is why his campaign has fought disclosing the document. What I question is his campaign not disclosing his college grades. What I question is his obfuscation of a series of questionable political "friends" and allies, how, where and when he met them and a number of other questionable associations that he has managed to acquire in his rise to power.

I believe he is a marxist, small "m." I believe he wishes to transform the United States into a society that will be doomed to fail as a global power that can advance the good. I believe that he is dedicated to an agenda of centralized power which will continue the destruction of individual rights and freedoms that our Constitutional Republic was founded upon.

Carter, I am sure, is not in favor of starving Egyptian children, nor am I. Merely because Carter and I might semantically agree with general unspecific goals for freedom for Egypt is frankly meaningless.

I am extremely concerned with the Muslim Brotherhood and its position to manipulate Egypt towards an Islamic state similar to Iran's within six months.

There is a similar pattern. Evil Mubarak, repressive, US ally...Evil Shah, repressive, US ally. Revolution, transitional government...Islamists take over, execute the generals, dissidents in prison, exile other elements and we have the Republic of Iran or Egypt.

Not a good scenario.

Forty percent of the worlds oil goes through the Suez Canal. The average daily wage for an Egyptian worker is between two dollars [$2.00] and four dollars [$4.00] per day.

Tourism is a major industry. Egyptians queue up for bread, a chicken and cooking oil. Reports of young men being hired to stand in line or fight for a place at the head of the lines by middle class Egyptians is not an extraordinary story in today's Egypt.

This is a culture that is ripe for revolution and a savage repression due to the structural economic conditions that exist internally.

There is a good chance of a Sharia state like Iran emerging from this revolution and that is no comfort to me. Some 75% of Egyptians believe that 9-11 was perpetrated by the CIA or the US government. More than 2/3 of the Egyptian street wants to revoke the peace treaty with Israel and go to war to regain land.

I will answer any further questions.

Also, I am not a "O"bjectivist.

Adam

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I guess I have been lucky. My father took me to Mosques in Brooklyn in the late 1050's...

Adam

Wow, guess you see a lot of changes in the old neighbourhood these days, eh?

Couldn't resist.

Carol:

Actually, many of those sections are remarkably the same even down to the circling flocks of pigeons and the coops on the tar beach rooftops.

However, other sections of Brooklyn are being "gentrified" similar to sections of Harlem, the South Bronx and Astoria Queens.

The really hate America radical mosques are, for example, on Flatbush Avenue in "Downtown Brooklyn." Really viscous, hostile bullhorn speechifying from the loudspeakers outside the Mosque.

Adam

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There is a similar pattern. Evil Mubarak, repressive, US ally...Evil Shah, repressive, US ally. Revolution, transitional government...Islamists take over, execute the generals, dissidents in prison, exile other elements and we have the Republic of Iran or Egypt.

Yikes. On first glance I thought I was reading Grand Mufti Richard Wiig's prognosis for Egypt. On second glance, I don't see much difference between his prognosis and yours -- they are equally dire and paranoid.

Some 75% of Egyptians believe that 9-11 was perpetrated by the CIA or the US government.

I will be asking you to cite something in support of this claim, Adam. Something that wasn't pulled out of Pamela Geller's ass.

There have been many polls that have plumbed world opinion on 9/11 perpetrators. In just a couple minutes of searching I found a site that commissions and collects credible international polls on the question. Another few minutes and I found a visual aid** that compares the results of these credible samplings on 9/11 perpetrators.

I also found credible polls of American beliefs about 9/11 perpetrators. The most recent poll I could find reported on the notion that "the federal government either assisted in the 9/11 attacks or took no action to stop the attacks because they wanted to United States to go to war in the Middle East." Likely: 16% ; Somewhat Likely: 20%.

I will continue looking for something, anything, to support your confident claim.

Let us restate that uncited claim for the record:

Some 75% of Egyptians believe that 9-11 was perpetrated by the CIA or the US government.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

**

WPO_911_Sep08_graph.jpg

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I know this is a serious thread, Adam, but I was "not resisting" your comment that your father took you to mosques over 900 years ago.

Once a proofreader, always a proofreader.

Lol. Yes those 1050's were quite rough on our family.

I just corrected the date. Amazing, worse than a Freudian slip that was a Popperian bra.

Thanks Carol

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Some 75% of Egyptians believe that 9-11 was perpetrated by the CIA or the US government.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

**

WPO_911_Sep08_graph.jpg

William:

Since I am in a corrective mode, what I meant to say was that 2/3 of Egyptians believed that elements other than Al Qaeda were responsible for 9-11. I am not basing my arguments about Egypt and its future on a poll.

That was sloppy on my part.

Let me ask you a question, on a scale of 1 through 10, with 1 being no threat to establishing a repressive Egyptian Islamic state and 10 being highly probable of establishing an Islamic Egyptian state, where would you place the Muslim Brotherhood in the post Mubarak Egyptian political landscape?

Adam

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Since I am in a corrective mode, what I meant to say was that 2/3 of Egyptians believed that elements other than Al Qaeda were responsible for 9-11.

What? Let's check this out:

Said: "Some 75% of Egyptians believe that 9-11 was perpetrated by the CIA or the US government."

Meant: "2/3 of Egyptians believed that elements other than Al Qaeda were responsible for 9-11."

Not even fucking close. Nobody could guess what you meant by what you wrote, Adam.

Here's what I figure. You pulled the first confident statement out of thin air, and you would have let that statement stand as fact if you hadn't been challenged. This does not augur well for any of your future claims of fact, Adam. How will anyone know if what you say is what you mean?

Let me ask you a question, on a scale of 1 through 10, with 1 being no threat to establishing a repressive Egyptian Islamic state and 10 being highly probable of establishing an Islamic Egyptian state, where would you place the Muslim Brotherhood in the post Mubarak Egyptian political landscape?

I will gladly answer a question like that. But I want you to do two things beforehand. Describe your vision of a repressive Egyptian Islamic State explicitly (I ask you that because you described such a state as emerging like this -- revolution, transitional government...Islamists take over, execute the generals, dissidents in prison, exile other elements -- and we cannot be sure that what you wrote is what you actually mean).

The second thing I want you to do is lay out the question a bit more intelligibly and simply.

A one to ten scale is fine (though a 0-100% scale is better), but if you are asking me or anyone to assign probability to an event/situation, you need one event/situation described explicitly. I mean, as it stands there is a slightly different descripto for the one and the ten end of the scale, and you have added in the meaningless term 'political landscape.' An answer to such a garbled formulation would have little value.

So, please redraft the query, answer it yourself, and I am sure I won't be the only one to weigh in.

Edited by william.scherk
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William:

You are incorrect. I heard the poll today either on Al Jazeera or one of the internet radio shows that I listen to while working. I heard the percentage in two parts and I split the difference.

If you do not wish to answer the standard 1-10 framing question or you wish to re state the question, be my guest.

The Muslim Brotherhood has a history that goes back to 1928.

I will rely on their history as the basis of my extreme concern with their involvement in the post Mubarak Egyptian political landscape.

The scenario that I described is precisely the scenario that occurred in Iran with the deposing of the Shah and the return and rise of Khomeini.

The stage in Egypt is set for a repeat pattern.

Adam

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As far as I can tell I have not posted much here

I already admitted I don't know the specifics - I just get the feeling Islam terrorists are behind it-I hope to hell I am wrong.

Let me get back to my Familyguy youtube clips?

TY

:mellow:

Edited by pippi
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I heard the poll today either on Al Jazeera or one of the internet radio shows that I listen to while working. I heard the percentage in two parts and I split the difference.

I asked for a cite/support for a confident statement of fact, and you gave none upon challenge; instead you changed the meaning of your statement. Now the story changes once again.

Please try harder to give support for your supposedly factual statements when you make them and say what you mean by a statement when you make it. You will save yourself the embarrassment of having to alter the statement, and appear much more credible in your presentation.

If you do not wish to answer the standard 1-10 framing question or you wish to re state the question, be my guest.

In 1979 there was a revolution in Iran that led a longtime US ally to become an implacable enemy. The regime change proceeded roughly like this: Revolution, transitional government...Islamists take over, execute the generals, dissidents in prison, exile other elements. Some people think the present events in Egypt will run through the same course.

Given that background, and considering a post Mubarak Egyptian political landscape, what probability would you assign to the likelihood of the Muslim Brotherhood establishing an Egyptian Islamic state?

0 == zero percent likelihood

100 = one hundred percent likelihood

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William:

You are entitled to interpret what I stated about how I heard that percentage.

It is the truth.

Adam

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You are entitled to interpret what I stated about how I heard that percentage.

It is the truth.

Some 75% of Egyptians believe that 9-11 was perpetrated by the CIA or the US government.

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Intriguing report from Laura Rozen of Politico. I haven't seen any other reports that get into this kind of detail of the behind the scenes maneouvers.

Post-Mubarak transition in works, analyst says; others see regime ploy

Senior Egyptian military officials are preparing for the transition from Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year rule and have opened discussions with the opposition, according to a veteran Middle East analyst who spoke with Egypt’s vice president who later made similar claims in a rare appearance on Egyptian television. But other Egypt analysts said they viewed the Egyptian security official's comments as a ploy to try to peel off some protesters and buy time for the embattled regime.

Egypt’s newly appointed vice president, intelligence chief Gen. Omar Suleiman, and Egyptian Defense Minister Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi are working closely together to try to manage a transition from Mubarak’s rule, Middle East analyst Stephen P. Cohen said after speaking by phone with Suleiman Monday.

The assessment came as Egypt's army issued a statement Monday pledging that it will not fire on peaceful protesters, and a day after the Pentagon said Defense Secretary Robert Gates had spoken by phone with Tantawi, but did not provide details about their conversation.

[ . . . ]

Tantawi and Suleiman “have different ideas about how the transition can take place,” Cohen said. One of their ideas, he said, involves a reconstituted Egyptian parliament comprised of 100 new members drawn from those disqualified from past elections and members of the opposition which would then serve as an "important body" during the transition to new elections.

“This would be a way of creating a body which would already be prepared to plan for real elections, and for which it would be clear to people that new parties and new people are not only welcome but needed," he said.

“It is not so important that the United States be planning an Egypt transition, it is important that Egypt be planning an Egypt transition,” Cohen said. “In fact, it’s better that Egypt do it. It means it’s coming from within and not an imposed solution.”

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You are entitled to interpret what I stated about how I heard that percentage.

It is the truth.

Some 75% of Egyptians believe that 9-11 was perpetrated by the CIA or the US government.

Which was how I first thought I heard it.

It was that 75% believed that Al Qaeda did not perpetrate 9-11.

I made a mistake, This is the second time I am stating it. You can continue to not understand how that can happen to a person when they are working and listening to another medium in the back ground.

Adam

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