489 Days of Excitement (Democratic Party Presidential Candidates)

william.scherk

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Three hundred and twenty-five days until the first chance Democratic electors have to select a candidate (beginning with the Iowa caucuses), plus the time between that caucus and the end of the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee Wisconsin on July 16 2020.

I'll be using this topic thread to note various peaks of excitement between now and then.  I don't think there will be much excitement on the Republican side -- since barring unforeseen circumstances, President Trump is assured the nomination of his party. 

Ballotpedia has a good, clean, in depth section devoted to the exciting Democratic candidates ...

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Americans will elect the next president of the United States on November 3, 2020. President Donald Trump(R) filed for re-election on January 20, 2017, the day of his inauguration. Sixteen U.S. presidents—approximately one-third—have won two consecutive elections. George H.W. Bush (R) was the last president to lose his re-election campaign in 1992.

Eighteen notable elected officials and public figures have entered the race:


The first two of 12 Democratic primary presidential debates will be held in June and July. NBC News, MSNBC, and Telemundo will host the first debate and CNN will host the second. As of March 2019, no information has been released regarding the timing of the Republican primary debates.

The Democratic National Convention will be held July 13-16, 2020, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The Republican National Convention is scheduled to take place August 24-27, 2020, in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Ballotpedia has compiled the following resources on candidates running for president in 2020:

President Trump had the kindest words for one declared Democratic hopeful, Senator Kamala Harris. From an interview with the New York Times shortly after she declared:

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BAKER: Who do you think is their toughest candidate?

TRUMP: So, you never know that answer. You — somebody that you think would be the least tough is the toughest. I would say, the best opening so far would be Kamala [pronouncing as Kameela] Harris. I would say, in terms of the opening act, I would say, would be her. I think she probably —

HABERMAN: What stood out to you about it?

TRUMP: I just think she seemed to have a little better opening act than others. I think.

BAKER: Incredible crowd.

TRUMP: A better crowd — better crowd, better enthusiasm. Some of the others were very flat. I do think Elizabeth Warren’s been hurt very badly with the Pocahontas trap. I think she’s been hurt badly. I may be wrong, but I think that was a big part of her credibility and now all of a sudden, it’s gone. And I may be wrong about that but, you know, I don’t see it. Some — you know, a lot of the folks have not decided to run yet. They might not run.

HABERMAN: Joe Biden?

TRUMP: I don’t — you know, I’d like to see him run. I’d like to see him run.
 

Michael has debuted a new topic, 2019 Dem Primary Watch [May 8 2019]

 



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Rick Wilson reminds me of my wicked smart uncle, the eldest.  The most conservative of his generation, and can generally slice through any of my bullshit, should I venture any.

"How Democrats are losing 2020, already: Trump must not win reelection, but the candidates lining up to beat him are giving a good chance"

I personally want to see more swinging from Trump at the candidates -- like Buttigieg and Harris and Klobuchar, who haven't yet recieved a good label like "Creepy Uncle" ...

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A funny bit from Steve Bannon ...

A Harris-O’Rourke ticket stands the best chance against Trump in 2020

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[...]

Bannon also speculated that if Democrats don’t have a presidential contender that has “broken out of the pack” by the end of this year, the Democratic Party will begin to look outside the current pool. That includes asking Hillary Clinton to run, again, the strategist contended.

“People should not count her out,” Bannon said. “She’s going to be sitting in the bullpen waiting for the call.”

[...]

 

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The 'loyal opposition' to President Trump is I think going to be rather disappointed with the "Let's Demand Tax Returns" gambit.

Every previous candidate/President who has released (some) tax information has done so voluntarily. I don't see how a demand will be finessed. In the end, the privacy of the IRS client seems to take precedence over any actual "need," although I am not 100% sure of my grasp of the details. "Yes, Marge, I know you want it. But you ain't gonna get it."

Here is Mick Mulvaney putting the kibosh on the gambit, on FoxNews: "Dems will never see Trump's tax returns."

 

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I like this woman's poise. Anybody put money on Harris win place or show? Even if the steely grace is a false front, there is a certain gravity in her performance. Will the presidential nickname stick?

 

Edited by william.scherk

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The Canadian Election will be done and dusted (it is scheduled for on or before October 21 this fall) before the very first Iowan fires up the minivan to head to caucus.  That first opportunity to make preferences known in a non-scientific opinion-poll is in two hundred and twenty one days.

Having provided that temporal context, can I speak to a 'frontrunner' in the pack of grifters, losers, ham sandwiches and communists who believe they have a chance of being selected as the Democratic name on the November 2020 ballot?

26-debate-screengrab1.w700.h467.png

Nope. 

Anyway, the candidate that interests me is Kamala Harris. She is up on stage for the second part of the musical chairs initial 'debate' schedule, which kicked off yesterday in Miami.

221 days. Till anybody votes. What horses will be still be sweating it out at that time?  I have no idea.

See also Michael's dedicated thread:

Peter Taylor also furthers discussion with a separate topic thread:

 

Edited by william.scherk

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"Kamala Harris wielded her shtick fairly effectively at the game show formal whoopup in Miami.  Building on her law order justice rap back in California, when she turns her steely eyes on you, it feeds electricity into the moment." [Edited for Twitter-friendly]

That is what we could call charisma or native talent. The ugly business of Vote4ME is often the 'screen test' for the various actors. I have sampled a whole lot of individual opinion on last night, and conclude that she probably had the most 'impact' of the second and third-tier candidates, those between zero and eight percent in opinion surveys ...

Does this woman have the brains and ability and money and 'talent' to push herself out of the middle?  I don't know. But she is attracting the right kind of attention: critical.  This from Elizabeth Nolan Brown at Reason.

Kamala Harris Won the Democratic Debate by Fudging Her Record.

On 6/27/2019 at 11:17 AM, william.scherk said:

221 days. Till anybody votes. What horses will be still be sweating it out at that time?  I have no idea.

See also Michael's dedicated thread:

Michael pointed to a Drudge round-up of opinion which indicated some folks were most happy with the representative from Hawaii, Tulsi Gabbard, in the first night of the game show:

Added: 5 minute Fox News report on Harris's shtick-y moments. Fake 'juice'? Did 'juice' get her atop her party's front bench from California? More juice, please. 

Edited by william.scherk

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President Trump suggests that Kamala Harris was given too much credit for her performance in the second game show in Miami:

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[...]

The president also weighed in on the first Democratic debates that took place this week in Miami, suggesting that Harris’s performance was overrated and that former vice president Biden could have responded more effectively to her criticism of his opposition to federally mandated desegregation busing in the 1970s.

“She’s been given too much credit for what she did. It wasn’t that outstanding,” Trump said. “He was hit harder than he should have been hit.” Asked his own position on busing to desegregate public schools, Trump said he was developing a policy related to the issue that would be revealed in four weeks but declined to elaborate.

Trump also praised Mexico for stepping up immigration enforcement, stated that his administration was developing a “smart person’s waiver” to allow successful foreign college students to remain in the United States more easily after graduating, said the administration would appeal a federal judge’s ruling to block the use of Pentagon funds for a section of a proposed border wall and called another judge’s decision to stop the administration from adding a citizenship question to the 2020 Census “horrible and ridiculous.”

[...]

 

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"All Polls Are Wrong," and this one proves it (story by Arial Edwards-Levy at the Huffington Post):  

Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris Looked Like Winners At The First Debates: Poll

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[...]

So Who Won The Debate?

Whether or not a debate actually lends itself to a single “winner” is itself debatable ― among other things, it’s unclear whether voters really treat the event as a zero-sum game. But the first two debates each saw a clear standout.In the first survey, 59% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters who watched at least clips or highlights of the debate said Warren did the best job, with Castro a distant second at 16%, and the remaining candidates all in the single digits.

The second debate saw a similar divide, with 59% of the Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters who watched at least highlights or clips saying Harris did the best, 16% naming Biden, 11% naming Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and everyone else polling below 10%. [...]

I don't know exactly why some folks figure Marianne Williamson could become a front-rank contender. The next round of candidate debates will occur in the fall, and the cut-off criteria will force a drop out by anyone polling -- like Marianne Williamson -- under 2%** ...

On edge: 2020 Dems face prospect of being cut from debates

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[...]

Of the 20 candidates who qualified for the first round of debates in June and July, just six are sure to appear in the September-October round, when the Democratic National Committee requires participants to hit 2% in multiple polls and 130,000 individual donors. Though many campaigns are worried, DNC Chairman Tom Perez has resisted pressure to relax the requirements.

“We put our rules out for debate participation months earlier because we wanted to give people time,” Perez said in an interview. “We want to be fair to everyone.”

There’s still time for struggling candidates to recover. All 20 contenders who appeared on the debate stage last week will return for the late July debates. And, for now, only a fraction of votersare paying close attention to the unfolding Democratic contest.

But failing to qualify for the September-October debates could be lethal to any candidate, regardless of whether they formally drop out of the race.

Currently, the only locks for the fall debates are former Vice President Joe Biden, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, California Sen. Kamala Harris and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg. 

[...]

On the other hand ... from Jonathan B Last at The Bulwark: Twitter Got the Democratic Debate Wrong.

And yet ... some anonymous person at the Conservative Treehouse says, "The Struggle is Real: Crazy, Creepy, Spank-Me and How Position for 2020." In this case, Senator Kamala Harris appears to be "Spank-Me."  Will Mr Trump pick up the nomenclature?

Senator Harris took Biden’s scalp knocking a solid ten percent from his pre-debate polling by accusing him of toxic whiteness/institutional racism.  Ever the opportunist, Spank-Me positioned herself as the heir-apparent to the grievance vote.  Booker attempted to regain grievance position, but his ethnic linguistics only made him look silly.  Down twinkles.

It could be that a large block of opinion would prefer "Vaccine Barbarella" to "Spank-Me," but I think that bloc is unlikely to be Democratic-voting.  In which case, the bloc of actually-Trumptastic-voters-to-be might think that Vaccine Barbarella is the absolute worst, next to Tulsi Gabbard.

All other things being equal, can Vaccine Barbarella move on up the rankings and meet the criteria to appear on stage with the Final Six in autumn?  I think not.

Spoiler

 

_____________

** from Morning Consult via RealClearPolitics:
Poll_Bottom_Morning_Consult_Democrat_candidates.png

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Days until Iowans choose to caucus under the Democratic Party banner: 214;
Days until the Democratic Convention 2020: 378;

Impetuous headline of the day: “DEMOCRATS WANT A KILLER”: KAMALA HARRIS EXPOSES A HARD TRUTH ABOUT BIDEN.

'Biden has always suffered from verbal incontinence and a lack of focused thought. Kamala’s debate night attack was about as spontaneous as Liberation Day in North Korea. But she also showed why she’s likely to be the nominee. Trump wages hard campaigns, and Biden has lost a step.'

Caucus Countdown!
All Polls Are Wrong!

Spoiler

Climate_of_Kamala_2.gif

Hiring for a Kamala Harris Nickname Contest director-general. We have a few on the table, notably from Peter Taylor.  

For dorkmeister wonkery on who is raking Harris over the coals most effectively, I will report back in a month. At the present time, it is the Berniebro and circular firing squad of 'not black' and 'not black enough' and 'Kamala Kop Killer" and "Jails Blacks, Ain't Black" and "Truant Nazi Kamala."  None so far with any bounce. The woman knows how to get a headline, though.  

The worst next to Ali Alexander 'she is a disgusting fraud' (calling herself black) is --  wouldn't you know it -- Sean King, whose blackity-blackness is itself conditional on political stripe. 

Another fun aspect of the "What is there to say about Kamala Harris?" initial Trumpist discourse is found at HA Goodman's Youtube account. For the last two rapid-fire Tim-Pool-ish uploads, he ignores Senator Harris to the point of only referring to her as a "California senator."

'Grab 'em by the balls/pussy!' 

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