Placeholder for GW/CC 'How I got here' thread

[Edited January 2 2019 -- to remove or replace dead visual-links]

Long ago Jonathan and I got some good traction out of a tangle of issues related to Global Warming slash Climate Change.  I think we are slated to renew or refresh our earlier exchanges.  I am going to poke in links to some he-said/he-saids from a few different threads at different times. One feature of the updated software is an automated 'sampling' of a link posted raw.  See below. 

So this blog entry will be kind of administrative-technical while being built and edited. I haven't figured out if Jonathan and I should impose some 'rules' going in, so your comment may be subject to arbitrary deletion before the field is ready for play. Fan notes included.

Study-links-Greenland-melting-with-Arctic-amplification.jpg

globalWarmingPEWpolarization.png

Adam, see what you think of the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, especially the revealing map-based representations of opinion. You can drill and zoom down to state, county, district level to track data across a number of survey questions, where some of the answers are surprising. On some measures at least, the thing it is not found only in the UK, Quebec, Canada: Here's a snapshot of several maps which do not always show an expected Red State/Blue State pattern;

[images updated January 2 2019; click and go images]

2018YaleClimateOpinionMaps.png

personalHarmYaleCC.png

[Deleted image-link]

Edited 4 May 2015 by william.scherk

 

Plug my How To Get Where I Got book of books, Spencer Weart's The Discovery of Global Warming. Insert link to Amazon, Library link, and to the intro chapter of Weart's companion website to the book. Make sure you include a link to Ellen's mention of a book review. 

Bob Kolker's June 3 comment is a good hinge. What do we (J and I) think we know about the mechanism Bob sketches? What can we 'stipulate' or what can we agree on, for the sake of argument?

On 6/3/2016 at 9:31 AM, BaalChatzaf said:

CO2 does  slow down the radiation of energy in the infra-red bandwith.  The question is to what degree  given that there are other systems that tend to diffuse and disperse heat (such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Nino, along with convection and the Coriolis Effect that moves warm are to the polar regions).  The scientific fact is that CO2 tends to absorb radiated energy in the infra red range.  That is NOT fabricated.  That is a matter of experimental fact. 

Please see http://scied.ucar.edu/carbon-dioxide-absorbs-and-re-emits-infrared-radiation

The issue is to what extent is the CO2 load of the atmosphere is slowing down heat radiation into space, when such absorbing or radiation occurs along with other heat dispersing processes.   

No denies that putting a blanket on, when it is cold slows down the rate at which one's body radiates heat.  Air is a poor heat conductor and the blanket traps air.  Also the blanket is warmed and radiates half its heat back to the source.  This produces a net slowing down of heat loss.  Heat loss still occurs (Second Law of Thermodynamics in operation)  but the rate of loss is affected. 

Tyndol and Arhenius  established the heat absorbing properties of CO2  in the late 19 th and early 20 th century.  Subsequent work has show the absorbtion to be the case and has measured it even more accurately than Tyndol and Arhenius. 

 

 

arctic1.jpg



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6 hours ago, merjet said:

 

 
Here's your chance to improve or mutilate Wikipedia.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coin_rotation_paradox  Edit the page to explain why the phenomena happens.  I bet you can't do so correctly and without help. But you can show your stupidity to many people not on OL.

I don't see any phenomenon. It's just one active coin and one passive. One discrepancy leads to another.

Now that's just off the top of my head. I've not actually explained it except, maybe, philosophically.

--Brant

Science? I don't have to show you any science! I don't need no stinkin' science!

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29 minutes ago, Brant Gaede said:

I don't see any phenomenon. It's just one active coin and one passive. One discrepancy leads to another.

Now that's just off the top of my head. I've not actually explained it except, maybe, philosophically.

--Brant

Science? I don't have to show you any science! I don't need no stinkin' science!

You are supposed to be dazzled by the outcome that the moving coin has done a 360 while going, not all the way around, but merely halfway around, the static coin.

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On 2/13/2020 at 6:34 AM, Jonathan said:

That's false. MSK answered your questions.

Jonathan,

When he asked, I said he probably wouldn't get it.

(This issue was why President Trump sometimes does things that look inconsistent on the surface--he mentioned two cases if I recall correctly.)

After I answered him, then made a few attempts at explaining it in simple terms, guess what?

He didn't get it.

And he laughed (and still laughs) at people who do get it.

He wanted a different outcome.

Sharing information does not seem to be at the root of interacting with him.

It may start that way, but it always goes south into a pissing contest.

:)

Michael

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14 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

btw - Fewer than 20 reads per post? Where did you get that stat? Educated guess? I don't know how to get views per post. I don't even get views per thread, although I might be able to find out where to turn that on in the backoffice. (For the record, your guess sounds good to me, maybe even a little high since this thread is in William's blog and, from a general impression I have garnered over time, blog threads on OL don't seem to get the same luv from the search engines that normal threads do.

Jon already answered how to get the views-per-post figure for this thread (for blog threads generally).

For threads on the main board, click on the forum heading. Views and number of posts are listed for each thread in a column to the right of the thread titles.

For instance, for the "McAfee" thread, click on "Stumping in the Backyard."  In the column to the right it says at this moment: 

21 replies, 194 views.

Ellen

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17 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Anyway, it's easy to see number of points per poster over time, although I'm not sure what these points are (maybe likes).

The "Laugh" reaction counts as a point, since apparently it's meant by the web designers to indicate an approving, laughing-with laugh, not a derisive, laughing-at laugh.  By virtue of using the "Laugh" icon to indicate derision, Jon manages to make Brad look on the "Leaderboard" as if he has a high approval rating.

Ellen

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31 minutes ago, Ellen Stuttle said:

By virtue of using the "Laugh" icon to indicate derision, Jon manages to make Brad look on the "Leaderboard" as if he has a high approval rating.

Ellen,

Ditto for William.

:)

In fact, on the Leaderboard, you can choose by year, by week, all time, by day, etc. William is in the top 4 in all of them.

He should thank Jon for making him look good.

:)

Thanks of thinking through the gamification stuff. I could have (and probably should have) thought this stuff through. I'm mostly bored by it, though. I've noticed, I'm not very participatory by nature. So the badges of participation and things like that don't interest me from the way they were designed. I prefer them for banter or other "up" emotions.

Even traffic only interests me (for now) from a particular viewpoint that is not normal. I try to keep it within a margin. I especially do not want a huge amount of traffic right now. Why? Simply because more bandwidth costs more money. Later, when I can move the forum to a different structure, hire coding technicians and so on, I will change this standard and open up with some tricks and tools I have learned over the years. Then the traffic should skyrocket.

Michael

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On 2/12/2020 at 6:48 AM, bradschrag said:
On 2/12/2020 at 6:40 AM, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Brad,

Actually, I'm going to do better than that, except it's going to be a pain in the ass for me.

All of your future posts will now have to be reviewed by me before they will be published. Nobody will be able to see them. Only me. I will make sure to delete anything else inappropriate before letting them through.

Call it potty training for now.

Michael

NOTE FROM MSK: Trolling text removed.

Would anybody be concerned if an unseen hand began to remove 'trolling text' ... or 'inappropriate' bits of commentary going forward? The invisible hand guide would be the Objectivist Living rules.

troll-bridge.jpg

Personally, I think such an invisible hand would be wise to "mark" the inappropriate material rather than delete it. Perhaps a spoiler ...

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21 hours ago, william.scherk said:

Personally, I think such an invisible hand would be wise to "mark" the inappropriate material rather than delete it. Perhaps a spoiler ...

William,

There are contexts and there are contexts.

Double-dog daring me on my own forum, like Brad did, comes with a cost. You (William) don't have to like me deleting his shit, but that's the way it is in that context. And if the person keeps up too much of that crap, like the crazy lady did sometime back, I ban them and block them from even reading the forum without using a proxy.

As to context, I personally like to drink lots water every day. But if I drink 2 gallons of it in a short time, I die. Does that mean drinking lots of water is bad for me? Or only in the context of within a short time?

See how that works?

Letting texts be is great for almost all contexts. But in a few contexts with hardheads wearing crashproof helmets, it's toxic. 

I often wonder why pro-establishment folks have difficulty understanding context when power is involved. They want to be the ones to tell everyone what to do and make exceptions for themselves--more often than not when they don't own the places they want to do that at.

My policy, which I have stated over and over for years, is that people on OL who are regulars, especially those who have been so for some time, which includes you, get lots of flexibility. Newcomers who show up and want to run this site and, with a chip on their shoulders, call the owner bad things, get very little.

Look what happened with this guy when I allowed him too much flexibility. He had no idea where he was at, even when warned. He must have thought OL was a safe space or something...

:) 

If Brad doesn't like the way he's being treated here, tough shit. I don't like the way he treated others and me on this forum. Let him bitch about me to his peeps. There are plenty of places on the Internet to do that. But here on OL, if he wants to be treated better, he needs to act better. And it starts by ditching the constant condescension. (Disagreement is fine.)

As to posts I don't let through, he better make a copy of them because I am not saving them. (There has only been one so far.)

I'm curious to see how this plays out over time.

People know I rarely keep restrictions permanent. Frankly, I don't want to use restrictions at all, but it's real hard to get some people to pay attention. They're just too damn hardheaded. So I have to find a way to get their attention. Taking away their power always gets their attention.

If Brad learns how this community works and starts posting accordingly, great. And like I said, disagreements are fine if that's what he wants to do. If he never posts again, also great. It's his choice, not mine. Either way is good for OL.

He will not change how this community works, though. That would be bad for OL. He doesn't rule anything here.

Michael

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RE ATMOSPHERIC CO2:
SUMMARY FOR OL READERS

Even if we - unreasonably - suppose that humans are responsible for the entire post-industrial increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, and even if we - unreasonably - suppose that the post-industrial increase in "global mean surface temperature" is entirely caused by increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, there isn't any good reason to worry about the burning of fossil fuels, since the temperature increase has been small (at most about .8 Celsius degrees [1.5 Fahrenheit degrees]), increasing the temperature by the same amount again would require doubling the atmospheric CO2 concentration (which would need burning an awful lot of fossil fuels to accomplish), and meanwhile the increased atmospheric CO2 is beneficial to the plant life on which our lives ultimately depend.  In short, atmospheric CO2 alarm is misguided.

Now, the warming specifically of the Arctic might be cause for worry.  However, the details of CO2-as-driver theory don't do the job of explaining what's happening in the Arctic.  The anomaly distribution and warming patterns are discrepant with the theory - giving alarmists another headache (like "the hiatus") to scrabble to find ways to fit into their paradigm.

Ellen

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Princess Ellen wrote: Now, the warming specifically of the Arctic might be cause for worry.

And the Antarctic just reached 65 degrees F just above the ice. What if Canadas’s grain belt extended hundreds of miles further north? Moderate warming is good. This is dedicated to our beloved neighbor, Canada. We are best friends. Peter

In the early mornin' rain
With a dollar in my hand
And an aching in my heart
And my -pockets full of sand
I'm a long ways from home
And I missed my loved one so
In the early mornin' rain
With no place to go

Out on runway number nine
Big 707 set to go
Well I'm out here on the grass
Where the pavement never grows
Where the liquor tasted good
And the women all were fast
There she goes my friend
She's rolling out at last

Hear the mighty engines roar
See the silver wing on high
She's away and westward bound
For above the clouds she flies
Where the mornin' rain don't fall
And the sun always shines
She'll be flying over my home
In about three hours time

This ol' airport's got me down
It's no earthly good to me
'Cause I'm stuck here on the ground
Cold and drunk as I might be
Can't jump a jet plane
Like you can a freight train
So I best be on my way
In the early mornin' rain
So I best be on my way
In the early mornin' rain
So I best be on my way
In the early mornin' rain. Songwriter: GORDON LIGHTFOOT

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On 2/14/2020 at 12:23 PM, Jon Letendre said:

It is explained in the article. Find the word “illusion.” Merlin falls for the “illusion” then struggles to get back up, and thinks you might, too, that’s all.

 

On 2/14/2020 at 12:34 PM, Jon Letendre said:

You are supposed to be dazzled by the outcome that the moving coin has done a 360 while going, not all the way around, but merely halfway around, the static coin.

 
No, fabricator. I didn't fall for an "illusion" and said nothing about being being dazzled. I dared the conceptually and mechanically inept Jonathan to explain why what happens does happen. He failed. You and Brant also didn't explain why or even feel it was needed. I'm not surprised. None of you saw the significance of the center of the moving coin. Déjà vu.
 
Analysis and Solution
 
Why does the moving coin make two rotations? From start to end the center of the moving coin travels a circular path. The radius of that path is twice either coin's radius. Hence, the circumference of the path is twice either coin's circumference. How much the moving coin rotates around its own center en route, even if none, or in what direction -- clockwise, counterclockwise, or some of both -- has no effect on the length of the path. That the coin rotates twice per the description on Wikipedia makes a distraction.
 
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20 hours ago, Ellen Stuttle said:

Now, the warming specifically of the Arctic might be cause for worry.  However, the details of CO2-as-driver theory don't do the job of explaining what's happening in the Arctic.  The anomaly distribution and warming patterns are discrepant with the theory - giving alarmists another headache (like "the hiatus") to scrabble to find ways to fit into their paradigm.

 
 
By the way:
 

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