Placeholder for GW/CC 'How I got here' thread

[Edited January 2 2019 -- to remove or replace dead visual-links]

Long ago Jonathan and I got some good traction out of a tangle of issues related to Global Warming slash Climate Change.  I think we are slated to renew or refresh our earlier exchanges.  I am going to poke in links to some he-said/he-saids from a few different threads at different times. One feature of the updated software is an automated 'sampling' of a link posted raw.  See below. 

So this blog entry will be kind of administrative-technical while being built and edited. I haven't figured out if Jonathan and I should impose some 'rules' going in, so your comment may be subject to arbitrary deletion before the field is ready for play. Fan notes included.

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Adam, see what you think of the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, especially the revealing map-based representations of opinion. You can drill and zoom down to state, county, district level to track data across a number of survey questions, where some of the answers are surprising. On some measures at least, the thing it is not found only in the UK, Quebec, Canada: Here's a snapshot of several maps which do not always show an expected Red State/Blue State pattern;

[images updated January 2 2019; click and go images]

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[Deleted image-link]

Edited  by william.scherk

 

Plug my How To Get Where I Got book of books, Spencer Weart's The Discovery of Global Warming. Insert link to Amazon, Library link, and to the intro chapter of Weart's companion website to the book. Make sure you include a link to Ellen's mention of a book review. 

Bob Kolker's June 3 comment is a good hinge. What do we (J and I) think we know about the mechanism Bob sketches? What can we 'stipulate' or what can we agree on, for the sake of argument?

On 6/3/2016 at 9:31 AM, BaalChatzaf said:

CO2 does  slow down the radiation of energy in the infra-red bandwith.  The question is to what degree  given that there are other systems that tend to diffuse and disperse heat (such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Nino, along with convection and the Coriolis Effect that moves warm are to the polar regions).  The scientific fact is that CO2 tends to absorb radiated energy in the infra red range.  That is NOT fabricated.  That is a matter of experimental fact. 

Please see http://scied.ucar.edu/carbon-dioxide-absorbs-and-re-emits-infrared-radiation

The issue is to what extent is the CO2 load of the atmosphere is slowing down heat radiation into space, when such absorbing or radiation occurs along with other heat dispersing processes.   

No denies that putting a blanket on, when it is cold slows down the rate at which one's body radiates heat.  Air is a poor heat conductor and the blanket traps air.  Also the blanket is warmed and radiates half its heat back to the source.  This produces a net slowing down of heat loss.  Heat loss still occurs (Second Law of Thermodynamics in operation)  but the rate of loss is affected. 

Tyndol and Arhenius  established the heat absorbing properties of CO2  in the late 19 th and early 20 th century.  Subsequent work has show the absorbtion to be the case and has measured it even more accurately than Tyndol and Arhenius. 

 

 

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14 hours ago, Ellen Stuttle said:

I don't think Tony is in Merlin's league.  Tony gets blockages where he can't get past a word meaning on which he's fixated, but he wouldn't have done something like Merlin's gall in presenting a false picture of the Aristotle's wheel paradox on Wikipedia.

Ellen

That was way too much, but it's indicative of a general Wikipedia problem.

--Brant

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18 hours ago, Ellen Stuttle said:

I don't think Tony is in Merlin's league.  Tony gets blockages where he can't get past a word meaning on which he's fixated, but he wouldn't have done something like Merlin's gall in presenting a false picture of the Aristotle's wheel paradox on Wikipedia.

Ellen

Good point.

J

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8 hours ago, Brant Gaede said:

That was way too much, but it's indicative of a general Wikipedia problem.

--Brant

Definitely. Wikipedia attracts zealots. Remember the Valliants? Heh. 'I want my little opinion on something to be the settled universal truth of all time, so I'm going to spaz out about it on Wikipedia until I win for a few months before some other zealot goes through the hassle of fixing what I fucked up.'

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9 hours ago, Brant Gaede said:

Is the rest of the world warming?

--Brant

It's just Canada. And Canadians caused it. It's settled science. 99.99999% of scientists agree.

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10 hours ago, william.scherk said:

"Are you new here?"

I think you are quoting me. Aikido doesn't work on me.

The Earth has been warming since the Little Ice Age. That's a true statement but has nothing to do with AGW which is getting a freebie ride off this undisputed fact.

As for Canada? The perma-frost goes soft. BFD! This is your problem and won't be dealt with by AGW BS. Fossil fuels Regina!

"Is the rest of the world warming?" has to do in the context of this yik yak with this century or the last 20 years.

"Your arms are too short to box with me" or, apparently, with anyone else. And you know this. So you bring in bodyguards.

--Brant

let the methane (Kraken) out!

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9 hours ago, Brant Gaede said:

I think you are quoting me. Aikido doesn't work on me.

The Earth has been warming since the Little Ice Age. That's a true statement but has nothing to do with AGW which is getting a freebie ride off this undisputed fact.

As for Canada? The perma-frost goes soft. BFD! This is your problem and won't be dealt with by AGW BS. Fossil fuels Regina!

"Is the rest of the world warming?" has to do in the context of this yik yak with this century or the last 20 years.

"Your arms are too short to box with me" or, apparently, with anyone else. And you know this. So you bring in bodyguards.

--Brant

let the methane (Kraken) out!

If the start of the next Little Ice Age happens around 2100  the Alarmists  will claim it is due to AGW.

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11 hours ago, Brant Gaede said:

Aikido doesn't work on me.

Brant,

It was working with Scott Adams until yesterday.

You have to start about 35:57 and go to about 46:13. That's the relevant part and it's a doozie. I believe Scott didn't mention it in the title because he's going to do a much more in-depth discussion in a later video.

And what's the fuss about? Scott just discovered that one of the main manmade climate change claims touted and yelled about for decades--that the current increase in temperature is unprecedented in recent years--is false. There is a focus this time around on CO2 as a kind of gotcha in waiting once the monkey-business if found out, but the way they have presented this to the public--both scientists and the mainstream press--has been a total misrepresentation. That fact is, the current temperature rise is normal compared to the patterns of the recent past.

Scott is so gobsmacked, he called the "unprecedented" claim a lie, then backed up and tried to use the principle of charity, saying that maybe this misrepresentation came from the geeks trying to simplify lots of variables for the general public.

I might agree with that for a few folks, but given the gobs of money and power they constantly demand, I'll go with a lie.

A big fat stinking-ass lie.

And, with Scott's typical reason-razor cutting through all the bullshit for the non-geek audience, he pointed out that in the recent past, climate scientists (in general) were convinced that previous temperature rises--that are identical to the one we are now experiencing--were due to this or that until the math didn't work. Then the scientists went back and factored in other variables to make the math work. But for today's temperature rise, some scientists (and the mainstream press) are trying to pass off the idea that the only variable that counts is CO2, since this is different than in the past.

Scott asks a simple question. If they were wrong in the past and later needed to factor in more variables to make their math work out, how do they know that no more variables need to be factored in to make the current math (used in the computer model crystal balls that predict doom and gloom) work? They don't. That's the simple answer. They don't. They just want the gobs and gobs of money and power based on a gypsy fortune teller and a crystal ball (my image, not Scott's).

Let me deepen the image--put Obama in a turban and colorful robes, then imagine him in a trance waving his hands over a crystal ball, intoning, "I see a message... the science is settled... the science is settled..."

:) 

The fact is, the future hasn't happened yet to make comparisons and measurements of what's missing--just like what happened in the past with temperature rises when things ended up being wrong.

As Scott said, his confidence in climate predictions just bottomed out.

Now, maybe William can contribute with a nice picture of the globe with some numbers or something... :evil: 

Michael

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What we know so far ...

11 hours ago, Brant Gaede said:
21 hours ago, william.scherk said:
On 4/3/2019 at 11:02 PM, Brant Gaede said:
On 4/3/2019 at 9:27 AM, william.scherk said:

Is the rest of the world warming?

"Are you new here?"

The Earth has been warming since the Little Ice Age.

Is it time for a refresher in the properties of "carbonic acid" in the atmosphere?  

Undead Climate Tropes - Curated tweets by wsscherk

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On 4/12/2019 at 12:33 PM, william.scherk said:

Is it time for a refresher in the...

Thanks, FalsifiaBilly!

And here's a refresher for you:

What is the Scientific Method?

The scientific method is a process for experimentation that is used to explore observations and answer questions. Does this mean all scientists follow exactly this process? No. Some areas of science can be more easily tested than others. For example, scientists studying how stars change as they age or how dinosaurs digested their food cannot fast-forward a star's life by a million years or run medical exams on feeding dinosaurs to test their hypotheses. When direct experimentation is not possible, scientists modify the scientific method. In fact, there are probably as many versions of the scientific method as there are scientists! But even when modified, the goal remains the same: to discover cause and effect relationships by asking questions, carefully gathering and examining the evidence, and seeing if all the available information can be combined in to a logical answer. 

Even though we show the scientific method as a series of steps, keep in mind that new information or thinking might cause a scientist to back up and repeat steps at any point during the process. A process like the scientific method that involves such backing up and repeating is called an iterative process.

Whether you are doing a science fair project, a classroom science activity, independent research, or any other hands-on science inquiry understanding the steps of the scientific method will help you focus your scientific question and work through your observations and data to answer the question as well as possible.

Steps of the Scientific Method
Steps of the Scientific Method Detailed Help for Each Step
Ask a Question: The scientific method starts when you ask a question about something that you observe: How, What, When, Who, Which, Why, or Where? 

For a science fair project some teachers require that the question be something you can measure, preferably with a number.

Your Question
Do Background Research: Rather than starting from scratch in putting together a plan for answering your question, you want to be a savvy scientist using library and Internet research to help you find the best way to do things and insure that you don't repeat mistakes from the past.

Background Research Plan
Finding Information
Bibliography
Research Paper

Construct a Hypothesis: A hypothesis is an educated guess about how things work. It is an attempt to answer your question with an explanation that can be tested. A good hypothesis allows you to then make a prediction:
"If _____[I do this] _____, then _____[this]_____ will happen." 

State both your hypothesis and the resulting prediction you will be testing. Predictions must be easy to measure.

Variables
Variables for Beginners
Hypothesis

Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment: Your experiment tests whether your prediction is accurate and thus your hypothesis is supported or not. It is important for your experiment to be a fair test. You conduct a fair test by making sure that you change only one factor at a time while keeping all other conditions the same. 

You should also repeat your experiments several times to make sure that the first results weren't just an accident.

Experimental Procedure
Materials List
Conducting an Experiment

Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion: Once your experiment is complete, you collect your measurements and analyze them to see if they support your hypothesis or not. 

Scientists often find that their predictions were not accurate and their hypothesis was not supported, and in such cases they will communicate the results of their experiment and then go back and construct a new hypothesis and prediction based on the information they learned during their experiment. This starts much of the process of the scientific method over again. Even if they find that their hypothesis was supported, they may want to test it again in a new way.

Data Analysis & Graphs
Conclusions

Communicate Your Results: To complete your science fair project you will communicate your results to others in a final report and/or a display board. Professional scientists do almost exactly the same thing by publishing their final report in a scientific journal or by presenting their results on a poster or during a talk at a scientific meeting. In a science fair, judges are interested in your findings regardless of whether or not they support your original hypothesis.

Final Report
Abstract
Display Board
Science Fair Judging

Throughout the process of doing your science fair project, you should keep a journal containing all of your important ideas and information. This journal is called a laboratory notebook. See the Science Buddies resource Science and Engineering Project Laboratory Notebooks for more information.

Educator Tools for Teaching the Scientific Method

Need a hands-on activity to familiarize students with the scientific method? Try our scientific method lesson plans:

Teachers who are Google Classroom users can assign a beginner student quiz or an intermediate student quiz to test student understanding of the scientific method. The quizes can be used as a pre or post evaluation — or even both! Additional quizzes and assignable science fair project submission forms are available on our Google Classroom Integration page.

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20 hours ago, william.scherk said:

Place hold ...

 

Oh, noes!!! Are we all going to die? Will the world end in 11 and a half years? What do we have to do to save existence, Billy? Punish and control other people?

In a few years, when old Arctic ice is no longer the frantic panic du jour because the predictions failed again, and the ice is increasing again, the focus will switch again to a different temporary panic again. Punishment and control of other people will be the solution to that severe catastrophic nightmare as well.

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The Gizmodo link leads to the National Snow and Ice Data Center -- for those who like to get closer to the findings ...

arcticSeaIceWhoopee.png

For climate-issue reactionaries, another cause for conniption?

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33 minutes ago, william.scherk said:

For climate-issue reactionaries, another cause for conniption?

Indeed! The reactionaries will definitely be having conniptions and using the ice stories above to push for more punishments and controls.

J

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The melting of the Arctic sea ice means the Northwest Passage will stay open long  which mean more sea commerces can use this shorter route.  It is good news for trade and business.

 

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17 hours ago, william.scherk said:

"It's okay to have 'minority opinions.'"  And once in a while, the opinions can be amplified.

Mike Pompeo claims rapidly melting Arctic sea ice could actually be a good thing, as it will create 'new opportunities for trade'

 

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See:  Arctic Amplification for earlier forecasts/predictions ...

Let me guess before following the link:

Doom? Punishment and control needed? Freedom bad?

J

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Speaking of predictions, Billy, do you have any answers to my questions yet? 'Member all of those times that I asked about successful predictions?

I've been predicting that you can't and won't answer them. What does that say about my hypothesis?

J

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