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Polls, polls, polls and polls make Merlin a sourpuss

william.scherk

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On 1/2/2016 at 4:33 PM, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Polling the way the media currently does it, essentially, is based on the same kind of suspense as in game shows. The purpose is so the media can get and keep eyeballs.

As dopamine spurts from anticipation in the viewer's head, his or her eyeballs are directed at the unknown but anticipated outcome. And there are plenty of pundits on 24/7 to talk about nothing but that.

Drumpf supporters know all about this, though, even though they may not formally know much about neurochemicals.[...]

Drumpf supporters want serotonin more than dopamine at this stage.

Dopamine is the neurochemical allied to anticipation of a reward. Serotonin is the neurochemical allied to social dominance. Don't think Drumpf himself doesn't know this stuff, neurochemical names and all.

Oddly enough, I don't think the professional pollsters know much about neurochemistry and persuasion.

 

 

On 12/29/2015 at 6:02 PM, Michael Stuart Kelly said:
On 12/29/2015 at 4:46 PM, Marc said:

I think that this threads most important point was made recently by William who thoroughly explained how polls need to be converted to votes and sometimes the difficulty in doing this .

Ha!

In other words, it's a law of nature that if you consistently win polls, you don't win elections. That just doesn't happen to anybody.

Double ha!

:)

Michael

 

On 12/23/2015 at 9:23 AM, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Drumpf has only won an unprecedented string of polls in a presidential primary so far because that's all he can win. Nothing else is available.

 

On 1/8/2016 at 3:43 PM, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

As a Drumpf supporter looking at the countdown, here are some of the things that catch my interest a lot more:

 


 

And:

 


 

More useless polls, I know. These are polls, not votes...

 

On 1/26/2016 at 10:05 AM, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

I know my stuff about Drumpf supporters because I am among them. I interact with them. I read them and talk to them.

Try it and you will see.

You want polls as a replacement for your eyes?

Like a poll of Objectivists who truly believe in Rand's ideas? You would need a poll to figure that one out?

 

On 2/14/2016 at 8:19 PM, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

As usual, Drumpf is killing it on the Drudge and Time online polls about who won the debate. So far, he's leading by over 40% on Drudge and over 60% on Time. He's even leading on TheBlaze poll right now by 10%, but later that will be reversed when Beck's Cruzbots show up and mass vote.

 

On 2/17/2016 at 1:23 PM, Michael Stuart Kelly said:
On 2/17/2016 at 11:44 AM, william.scherk said:
On 2/17/2016 at 10:59 AM, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Of course, we all know that polls are not reality. :)

 I don't know what 'everyone' knows or what you think about polls -- and I don't believe you hold the opposite corollary to your one-liner: "We all know Polls are Reality." Maybe somewhere in between is your considered opinion.[...] 

Did you read into the poll  I mentioned above that broke out Drumpf supporter's views on various issues of policy, preferences and attitudes? Do you find yourself represented in those soundings?

Anyhow, you are probably unlikely to give us an essay on polling. T

Boy, did you get that right. My thing is human nature, not running stats on the answers to multiple choice questions.[,,,] 

Now we come to polling. [...] That's why I treat polls more like a score of a football game than the hard reality of what will happen if we get this election wrong.[...]

Polls are like cotton candy for nutrition.

 

On 2/26/2016 at 9:53 PM, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

btw - Drumpf is crushing it as usual in the online polls about who won the debate.

I only looked (and voted :) ) at Drudge and Time, but I presume the others are doing similar. 

Well... I just looked (and voted :) ) at TheBlaze and he's killing it there, too. (Beck probably loses sleep over this because Drumpf actually won the last one on TheBlaze, even after the Cruz bots woke up. :) )

 

On 3/14/2016 at 7:36 AM, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Merlin,

What's making you a sourpuss all of a sudden?

It wouldn't be the latest polls in Ohio [...], would it?

:)

Michael

 

 



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:) 

I wasn't familiar with the term "Drumpf supporters."  My first guess was about dumping Trump. Then I see MSK calling himself a Drumpf supporter.

I don't consider Drumpf a very flattering label. Did MSK forget his "marketing hat"? :)

 

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See the Drunpfinator ... an extension for the Chrome browser. It renders web pages into comedy gold (well, at least renders a small internal chuckle). I forgot to turn it off for the remarks quoted above.

Oops.

Our fearless leader has been all over the map with regard to public opinion sampling, touting the shittiest online polls and turning his nose up at decent ones.  It is almost funny. I sure am glad Robert Campbell dropped back in on us. I find MSK's Drumpf love to be disheartening.

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3 hours ago, william.scherk said:

I find MSK's Drumpf love to be disheartening.

Ha!

It's called winning.

:) 

It doesn't matter if you switch out the spelling in my posts.

That's a word thing for word people.

I am into the deed thing.

Like winning.

:)

Michael

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1 hour ago, Selene said:

As disheartening as your question begging statements on the "...shittiest online polls..." and "...decent ones...?"

Well, there are shitty polls, and there are very shitty polls, and that is my opinion. I don't know your opinion on polls.  

[IMO]Decent polls are what they call scientific, with open data and no shitty tricks, clear questions, of a certain margin of error. It is in the interpretation that I can go wrong. I take the toplines sometimes (as with the Canadian election where some polling failed to show the 40-ish percent that the Liberals grabbed) and run with it. So, relying on shitty and shittier and shittiest polls (which are the self-selected Vote online polls such as the Who Won Debate single question 'polls.'  They aren't polls, really, in the sense of population sampling)  -- I am at a disadvantage in getting hints of the 'pulse of the people.'  If you are dismayed by my allusion to a  love that makes exceptions, that I am disheartened by MSK's love for Trump, it is my honest feeling.  

I get disheartened at his tone sometimes ("your pretty little head") but that's different. It's that he has set aside the Principle of Charity and allowed his arguments to drift into auto-debunk mode at times, and insulting despite the smileys and lizard brain metaphors.

More disheartening is that he sorts out the critics and doubters into a huge cohort of Haters hating haterade.  It is condescending when applied to Bidinotto, to Reb!, to Merlin, to Robert. It stings my sense of fair play.  I say so here and there, now and again, in other words. 

You can let your hair down here, Adam. I do.  Having a disagreement between opinions is a grand old tradition.  I try not to be too disagreeable, but we each have our tastes and triggers.

1 hour ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Ha!

It's called winning.

:) 

It doesn't matter if you switch out the spelling in my posts.

That's a word thing for word people.

It is grade-school level, the Drumpfinator. I apologize for not swapping it out here, if it was taken as anything but quippy banter. It does make Google News more fun at times.  It is akin to my calling Rubio JugEars or Hispano-twin or Candidacide. It is cheesy.

Winning, Mr Trump is definitely winning. I think you should be crowing a little with each advance in the number of delegates he has in the bag. His rock-bottom 33% has beens surpassed in all but 'well, he wasn't gonna win there, anyway' states like this week's shutout in, er, Utah. As Rand might say, "pass it along."  It is in the bag for Trump. Even the nitwits at 538 throw the bones and get Trump majority. It is in the Runes, I feel. The sickness in American politics is not in Trump, but in the disaffection with your institutions, your dismal approval of Congress, the sinking feeling that America's great days are in the past, through individual perception of ordinary folks, not a cohort, not a group, but individual stories of disaffection and hope.

The anodyne slogans of politics are manifold but spin around the same polls. Together, Change. Hope. Positive. Reform. Freedom. Trump is essentially positive despite the slurs and the Hoopla. He does find everything in US politics to be fucked, but what American doesn't and what American would not tip it all out in the ash-heap and elect a new guard? 

One of the arts of acting is the Method. Observation and mimesis of emotional tone, as a driver of performance. The Method, not taught at my high school, was nevertheless a tool to provide facsimiles of emotion, tears, anger, frustration. These emotions are not too hard to conjure up for an actor. So, in some senses, I feel or 'feel' the corresponding emotion of a cohort or model.  I can empathize from there,

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

There is something called titration. It is appropriate sometimes (powerful drugs, for example). I try to be proportionate in my criticisms, proportionate and coherent and so on.  I do let loose backstage, which is a feature not a bug (a feature of the very very light hands on the reins of OL, for which I give thanks. For which I try to pay the rent by letting WSS out ... in titrated doses). I want to be less of something on the Front Porch at OL, and more active independently, as with the podcasts. Here I can be frank.

I am excited to have finally launched a podcast series that appears on iTunes. I have a pen-pal Twitter Fren across the water in Victoria. He is Muslim and philosophical (see his podcasts here, especially his version of "Philosophy, what is it good for?")

I foresee an exchange with him, as he is friendly to my atheism. I want to introduce him to my obsessive interest in the Randian corpus and attachments and modern-day phenomena.

He will probably say fuck no to appearing (as robot or live) on my POD.  But one can only ask and appear well-groomed and charismatic. Thank god for all my early actor training. 

As you were, gentlemen. I will put my hair up, unplug the Drumpfinator, and continue listening to the segments of Mr Trump with the Borg. 

I reiterate my plangent hope -- that Trump-watchers and Trump-opiners should listen, listen, listen to Mr Trump. Listen to the rallies, listen to his interviews, listen to his plans as with the conflab with the WaPo borg.

-- and back to my fans/non-lubbers: if you want to bitchslap or exfoliate or defenestrate me here, let 'er rip. We don't have to be politically correct in the Keep.

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14 hours ago, william.scherk said:

Well, there are shitty polls, and there are very shitty polls, and that is my opinion. I don't know your opinion on polls.  

[IMO]Decent polls are what they call scientific, with open data and no shitty tricks, clear questions, of a certain margin of error. It is in the interpretation that I can go wrong. I take the toplines sometimes (as with the Canadian election where some polling failed to show the 40-ish percent that the Liberals grabbed) and run with it. So, relying on shitty and shittier and shittiest polls (which are the self-selected Vote online polls such as the Who Won Debate single question 'polls.'  They aren't polls, really, in the sense of population sampling)  -- I am at a disadvantage in getting hints of the 'pulse of the people.'  If you are dismayed by my allusion to a  love that makes exceptions, that I am disheartened by MSK's love for Trump, it is my honest feeling.  

I get disheartened at his tone sometimes ("your pretty little head") but that's different. It's that he has set aside the Principle of Charity and allowed his arguments to drift into auto-debunk mode at times, and insulting despite the smileys and lizard brain metaphors.

More disheartening is that he sorts out the critics and doubters into a huge cohort of Haters hating haterade.  It is condescending when applied to Bidinotto, to Reb!, to Merlin, to Robert. It stings my sense of fair play.  I say so here and there, now and again, in other words. 

You can let your hair down here, Adam. I do.  Having a disagreement between opinions is a grand old tradition.  I try not to be too disagreeable, but we each have our tastes and triggers.

It is grade-school level, the Drumpfinator. I apologize for not swapping it out here, if it was taken as anything but quippy banter. It does make Google News more fun at times.  It is akin to my calling Rubio JugEars or Hispano-twin or Candidacide. It is cheesy.

Winning, Mr Trump is definitely winning. I think you should be crowing a little with each advance in the number of delegates he has in the bag. His rock-bottom 33% has beens surpassed in all but 'well, he wasn't gonna win there, anyway' states like this week's shutout in, er, Utah. As Rand might say, "pass it along."  It is in the bag for Trump. Even the nitwits at 538 throw the bones and get Trump majority. It is in the Runes, I feel. The sickness in American politics is not in Trump, but in the disaffection with your institutions, your dismal approval of Congress, the sinking feeling that America's great days are in the past, through individual perception of ordinary folks, not a cohort, not a group, but individual stories of disaffection and hope.

The anodyne slogans of politics are manifold but spin around the same polls. Together, Change. Hope. Positive. Reform. Freedom. Trump is essentially positive despite the slurs and the Hoopla. He does find everything in US politics to be fucked, but what American doesn't and what American would not tip it all out in the ash-heap and elect a new guard? 

One of the arts of acting is the Method. Observation and mimesis of emotional tone, as a driver of performance. The Method, not taught at my high school, was nevertheless a tool to provide facsimiles of emotion, tears, anger, frustration. These emotions are not too hard to conjure up for an actor. So, in some senses, I feel or 'feel' the corresponding emotion of a cohort or model.  I can empathize from there,

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

There is something called titration. It is appropriate sometimes (powerful drugs, for example). I try to be proportionate in my criticisms, proportionate and coherent and so on.  I do let loose backstage, which is a feature not a bug (a feature of the very very light hands on the reins of OL, for which I give thanks. For which I try to pay the rent by letting WSS out ... in titrated doses). I want to be less of something on the Front Porch at OL, and more active independently, as with the podcasts. Here I can be frank.

I am excited to have finally launched a podcast series that appears on iTunes. I have a pen-pal Twitter Fren across the water in Victoria. He is Muslim and philosophical (see his podcasts here, especially his version of "Philosophy, what is it good for?")

I foresee an exchange with him, as he is friendly to my atheism. I want to introduce him to my obsessive interest in the Randian corpus and attachments and modern-day phenomena.

He will probably say fuck no to appearing (as robot or live) on my POD.  But one can only ask and appear well-groomed and charismatic. Thank god for all my early actor training. 

As you were, gentlemen. I will put my hair up, unplug the Drumpfinator, and continue listening to the segments of Mr Trump with the Borg. 

I reiterate my plangent hope -- that Trump-watchers and Trump-opiners should listen, listen, listen to Mr Trump. Listen to the rallies, listen to his interviews, listen to his plans as with the conflab with the WaPo borg.

-- and back to my fans/non-lubbers: if you want to bitchslap or exfoliate or defenestrate me here, let 'er rip. We don't have to be politically correct in the Keep.

Now, now, William. I think I see the problem here. You and Michael read each other.

--Brant

I don't know why I have a soft spot for defenestration

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