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From: Donald Trump

william.scherk

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A few more details on Iowa Caucusing for Trump -- how to figure out exactly where to go -- from an Iowa gentleman who is Trump captain in his precinct. I will later transcribe the fiddly bits from the gent, and post links. If I was marketing the How To Caucus video, I would have the details clickable, and the details already programmed into a site on the Trump side. That way, any Trump Iowa supporters who have not been recruited already -- at a rally or by operatives off the RNC lists, or by friend, neighbour, family -- they could just click in their Zip code and bam, there spits out a reminder with all the details, ready to print and tweet and stick on the bulletin board at the truck stop ...

The exciting part of the night of February 1 is in the ground game and the turn-out. It is not completely predictable in advance -- at least with two weeks left on the clock.

statemap.gif

The closer to Iowa we get, the less meaningful the actual results, in a way. By the day before the results, we will have a very good rough idea which way the chips will fall, and how the preference proportions will be reported, ie, Trump 36%, Cruz 27%, etc ... and yet the circus will have moved on to Hoopla In New Hampshire. As I have noted, the actual delegate totals are teeny, and the winner is not necessarily indicative. This is almost certainly the verdict of Iowa, though its verdict will spare a couple of the walking dead from a few more weeks and months of spending and balloting.

liars.jpg

Being wonkish, I think the neatest thing about Iowa is the retail game, even if the outcome is not going to make a slight bit of difference in the next three heats. I have been reading today all the things Mr Trump has said about Iowa expectations the past week or so, and I think he has calculated quite well. His eyes are on the horizon ... even as his supporters slug it out in the organizing and instructing and mobilizing. Thanks, Michael for the goad to a bit of research. If I was in Iowa, apparently I could pick up a paper at the gas station on February 1st, with every last precinct IDed.

By the time the date comes, I will be so wonked out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYd1Qw9G614

-- a snapshot of the running window of polls in Iowa via RCP -- just a bit out of date. It is going to be tight, if one had to close off bets right now:

POLLS!

Cruz_Ontop.png

Source: Donald Trump



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