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Disagreements, March 14



10 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:


Are you serious?

You think I'm stumped by Trump's appeal?




I humbly suggest you haven't been paying much attention to this thread since July. Either that or you really need to brush up on your reading skills. I have been explaining Trump's appeal over and over for months.



I even said I have a collection of boneheaded mainstream press explanations for his appeal that range from Hillary plant to authoritarian psyche. All bullshit.




And all with failed predictions of an immediate failed Trump campaign. If it were one prediction or other, OK. But there has been nonstop wrong predictions (by ALL of these authors) since July and correct predictions (by me) during the same period.



If I'm not mistaken, I even said Silver is measuring the wrong things [...]

So what could Silver measure that he doesn't? Here is a very easy parameter (among many). It would give him quite good predictive results. It can be expressed by the question: Do you receive government money?




If the person does, it is less likely he or she will support Trump. If the person doesn't, it is more likely he or she will support Trump.

Simple and accurate.



And that's just one parameter.

But Nate Silver ain't gonna do that. You wanna know why? Because he receives government money.


9 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

Silver spent several months categorically saying, with strong emphasis, that Trump didn't stand a chance in most of the interviews he gave. Even after he started joking about being constantly wrong, he still kept saying that crap.

So I lost respect for him.



I don't believe he is motivated by hatred. I believe he, like a good doggie, is barking while sitting on the lap of the owner who feeds him--the establishment machine, which can be Republican or Democrat.



Now all I need is for you to ask me what I mean because you don't see anyone trying to destroy Trump...


6 hours ago, merjet said:

WSS, did you compute those Average Vote %'s youself? If so, you need to learn some basic statistics. More objective would be the percent of delegates for each candidate for the 5 states + DC. They are:

 TRUMP     41.0%     CRUZ   38.2%        RUBIO        6.2%     KASICH      14.6%

Those numbers are very different from yours:

 TRUMP    29.22%     CRUZ    36.83%     RUBIO    16.65%    KASICH     17.34%

You should also have labeled the columns. I have no idea what your left column for each candidate is. I assumed the right column is number of delegates.

I just noticed that MSK has called himself a Trump groupie on this thread. Now I can't stop imagining the many screaming, teenage, female fans of the Beatles.   :)

A first attempt at an explanation for Trump's shitty showing in the GOP races in DC and Wyoming:

10 hours ago, Michael Stuart Kelly said:

DC is easy. Most folks in DC work in the government or work for people who are in the government (or otherwise receive money from the government). Trump is a threat to their livelihood.



I don't know anything about Wyoming. When I consulted the figures, though, unless I sorely misunderstood how to read them, it looks to me like under 1,000 people voted all total (see here). That's for the entire state. And this in a state that has a population of well over 550,000.





In fact, it looks like under 3,000 people voted in DC and it has a population of well over 650,000.

If those numbers are correct, that means GOP primary caucus participation for voters is hellishly complicated to understand and/or do there. It also indicates a predominantly horse-trading environment. In that case, maybe Trump blew off those places and didn't do jack in either. 



Natural gas

Coal bed methane

Crude oil


In 2008, the Tax Foundation ranked Wyoming as having the single most "business friendly" tax climate of all 50 states

Today, Wyoming is represented in Washington by its two Senators, Mike Enzi and John Barrasso, and its one member of the House of Representatives, Congresswoman Cynthia Lummis. All three are Republicans. The state has not voted for a Democrat for president since 1964, one of only eight times since statehood. At present, there are only two relatively reliably Democratic counties: affluent Teton and college county Albany. In the 2004 presidential election, George W. Bush won his second-largest victory, with 69% of the vote. Former Vice President Dick Cheney is a Wyoming resident and represented the state in Congress from 1979 to 1989.
Republicans are no less dominant at the state level. They have held a majority in the state senate continuously since 1936 and in the state house since 1964. However, Democrats held the governorship for all but eight years between 1975 and 2011.



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