Iowa 2016 - Time To Make Your Predictions


Selene

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Ted Cruz 30% 2,222 0

Donald Trump 29% 2,107

Virtual dead heat - it is a 2 man race in Iowa which is a win for The Donald

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Yep The Donald is doing better than those 5 write in vote from 2012...

Ted Cruz 30% 4,283 0

Donald Trump 28% 3,992 0

Marco Rubio 19% 2,667

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Brant writes:

I think Trump is ethanol whoring his way to an Iowa victory.

Much to my dismay, so did Cruz in the debate.

This is one time I hope he's lying except that's a Catch 22,

and would mean that he could be lying about anything else.

Nevertheless I still like Ted.

Greg

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Huckabee will be suspending his campaign tonight also.

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I am glad that both Carly Fiorina and Rand Paul will stay in the race, although both are anti choice on a woman's right to choose. I imagine that either would get a boost if they came to their senses and became pro choice, at least in the general election. I realize that is a dream.

At this time, 4:44AM, Cruz won and beat Trump by a good margin, and Rubio came in third, followed by Carson at 10 and Paul at 5%. Have yet to hear Trump's take on the outcome.

Part of me wishes Trump would decide to drop out but given his narcissism he will go on at least to New Hampshire. Maybe if he loses there too he'll drop out.

Interviews with voters in Iowa were revealing at the ignorance and shallowness of their decision making.

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Iowa GOP caucus results (10:04 p.m.) vs. Iowa polling average

CANDIDATE

POLLING AVERAGE

ACTUAL VOTE

DIFFERENCE

Trump

28.6

24.7

-3.9

Cruz

23.9

27.8

+3.9

Rubio

16.4

22.6

+6.2

Carson

8.0

9.3

+1.3

Paul

4.4

4.5

+0.1

Bush

3.7

2.8

-0.9

Huckabee

3.1

1.7

-1.4

Christie

2.6

1.7

-0.9

Fiorina

2.4

1.8

-0.6

Kasich

2.4

1.9

-0.5

Santorum

1.2

0.9

-0.3

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Iowa GOP caucus results (10:04 p.m.) vs. Iowa polling average CANDIDATE POLLING AVERAGE ACTUAL VOTE DIFFERENCE Trump 28.6 24.7 -3.9 Cruz 23.9 27.8 +3.9 Rubio 16.4 22.6 +6.2 Carson 8.0 9.3 +1.3 Paul 4.4 4.5 +0.1 Bush 3.7 2.8 -0.9 Huckabee 3.1 1.7 -1.4 Christie 2.6 1.7 -0.9 Fiorina 2.4 1.8 -0.6 Kasich 2.4 1.9 -0.5 Santorum 1.2 0.9 -0.3

Maybe I should start a new thread called "How Ted Cruz Stole Votes from poor Ben Carson."

But look at the poll averages against the vote totals: Ben Carson did 1.3% *better* than the poll average projected he would. So did Cruz, Rubio, and Paul. The real obvious loser (based on poll average projections) was not Ben Carson, but Donald Trump.

Did Cruz's supposed dirty tricks about Carson leaving the race hurt Carson? Maybe, somewhat, but how could we tell? But then who really *benefited* from this tactic? Cruz with a 3.9% bump up from the polling average - or Rubio with a 6.2% bump up? Gee, did *Rubio* steal most of the votes from Carson? His campaign spread the same rumor, after all, so the anti-Cruz argument works just as well on him.

Or, what about Cruz's supposed dirty trick with the voter "violation" mailout - did *this* help Cruz beat Trump? Rubio's campaign sent out a similar mailer, but as "report card," rather than something that looked like a notice of an infraction of the law. This would less likely turn off voters and be more likely to win him votes, than what Cruz's campaign did. So, maybe *Rubio* is more responsible for Trump losing!

Obviously, you can bend these statistics any way you want, and the analysis seems to make sense. What does *not* make sense, for Trump, is to waste time and focus by harping about how Cruz stole the election from him, or to threaten to sue for it.

Trump needs to take the high road, like Rubio is doing - focus on his positive message, about making America great again, and not be stingy with details about how he's going to do so. He looks less Presidential, less statesmanlike...basically, smaller, petty, unworthy when he complains and threatens to sue.

He also needs to concentrate on getting a ground game together. He tweeted about not even know what that was. What??? The guy who wants to be Commander-in-Chief can't even muster an army of supporters to do a full-scale campaign, blanketing the state he wants to win? That needs to change, too, if he expects to win.

REB

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I need to make a correction...

I totally misunderstood Ted Cruz as I only heard part of his response on ethanol. He was actually AGAINST the government subsidized ethanol program. To say that in a corn state like Iowa was truly brave as his honesty likely cost him some votes.

Greg

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I am glad that both Carly Fiorina and Rand Paul will stay in the race... 

 

Gulch,

 

As you know by now, Rand is out. However, he is up for reelection soon as Senator.

 

Sarah Palin just endorsed him hard.

 

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Thank you to Sen. Rand Paul for running a positive, principled and productive campaign for President. His voice was one...

Posted by Sarah Palin on Wednesday, February 3, 2016

 

Michael

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Editorial: Something smells in the Democratic Party

Dr. Andy McGuire, chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party, dug in her heels and said no. She said the three campaigns had representatives in a room in the hours after the caucuses and went over the discrepancies.

McGuire knows what’s at stake. Her actions only confirm the suspicions, wild as they might be, of Sanders supporters. Their candidate, after all, is opposed by the party establishment — and wasn’t even a Democrat a few months ago.

Transparency?

So her path forward is clear: Work with all the campaigns to audit results. Break silly party tradition and release the raw vote totals. Provide a list of each precinct coin flip and its outcome, as well as other information sought by the Register. Be transparent.

And then call for a blue ribbon commission to study how to improve the caucuses, as the Republican Party of Iowa did after its own fiasco in 2012. Monday’s mess showed that it’s time for the Democrats to change, too.

The caucuses have become something they were never intended to be. It’s as if RAGBRAI tried to morph into the Tour de France. It wasn’t built for the speed or the significance.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/editorials/caucus/2016/02/03/editorial-something-smells-democratic-party/79777580/

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Looks like they've nailed the Cruz people in Iowa on automated voicemails, too. They made robocalls claiming that Carson dropped out of the campaign.

 

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Phony GOP Establishment Preaches "Do As I Say, Not As I Do"Dr. Ben Carson and Donald Trump are RIGHT for trying to get...

Posted by Sarah Palin on Thursday, February 4, 2016

 

Go to the Breitbart link in Sarah's post to hear the audio.

 

Michael

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In Iowa entrance polls are done.

Only 13% listed immigration as an important issue on the Republican side!!

This is another reason for The Donald not pulling as many votes as some folks expected.

The top three (3) issues were:

government spending 32%

economy/jobs 27%

terrorism 25%

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/primaries/iowa-entrance-poll/

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The head of the Iowa Democratic party chairwoman who refuses to release the actual vote, or, respond to the issues of significant issues in the counting is a tad biased...

In fact, the supposedly objective and neutral party chairwoman has donated thousands of dollars to Hillary’s political campaigns, served on a special women’s council for Hillary, and even drives a Buick with a license plate that reads “HRC 2016.”

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SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - In 2066 when the Super Bowl celebrates its 100th anniversary fans will not just watch the National Football League's championship game - they will live it in all its bone-jarring virtual reality glory.

No longer a parochial pastime, futurists believe American gridiron will be a global game with franchises from London to Beijing, concussions, like paper money, will have disappeared and fans will swarm stadium concession stands at halftime for a puff on legalised marijuana or to sip on $100 beers.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/future-fans-live-super-bowl-not-watch-070440886--nfl.html

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