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"Ron Paul More Electable Than Mitt Romney in Latest Poll"

survey by Public Policy Polling.

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#1 gulch8

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 03:14 AM

<<<"PRESS RELEASE
March 22, 2012, 9:21 p.m. EDT
Ron Paul More Electable Than Mitt Romney in Latest Poll

“Paul is the strongest candidate with independents, tying Obama with them while the rest of the GOP field trails by 6-15 points.”


LAKE JACKSON, Texas, Mar 22, 2012 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- 2012 Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul polls better against President Barack Obama in a head-to-head matchup than establishment-choice moderate Mitt Romney, according to a recent survey conducted by Public Policy Polling.

The poll found that Obama defeats Romney by 4 percentage points (48-44) and Newt Gingrich by 8 percent (50-42). While Santorum also joins Paul being within striking distance of the President by 3 points (48-45 and 46-43 respectively), Paul brings Obama a noticeable 2 percentage points further away from the 50 percent a candidate seeks to win on election day. Considering the +/- 3.3-percentage point margin of error, Paul in this poll is statistically tied for the presidency.

Reinforcing the electability case for Paul is that he ties Obama among independent voters, while Romney loses the largest voting segment by 6 percent, Santorum by 8 percent, and Gingrich by 15 percent -- a cause for concern whether Paul’s three rivals would even be competitive come November.

While many polls have shown Paul to be the most competitive Romney alternative, it also shows Paul to be making substantial progress and momentum for a general election bid. The new poll reveals that Paul is narrowing the gap between himself and Obama by 5 percentage points since last month’s PPP poll.

Other notables are that among one of the fastest growing voter segments, the Hispanic vote, Paul takes a full third of the Hispanic vote against the sitting President, with no other candidate able to come within 5 points of Paul’s Hispanic support.

Among the largest voter segment, self-identified independents, Paul is viewed favorably by 41 percent, whereas Romney and Santorum are relegated to a melancholy 29 percent and Gingrich further behind with a mere 24 percent favorability. These favorability numbers among independents translate into a clear Election Day advantage unique to Paul, where he would tie President Obama 42 to 42 for their votes.

Young voters, those 18 to 29 years in this poll, have long been considered to be in the President’s court. Yet, in a Paul-Obama matchup, these voters leave Obama and comparatively flock to Paul, backing him with a hefty 40 percent of their support. The range of youth support for Paul’s three competitors in a head-to-head with Obama ranges 22 to 29 percent, meaning about half of Paul’s margin to weak at best.

“The media may find an inevitability about Romney becoming nominee, but it is clear that with anyone other than Ron Paul as nominee a second term for Obama is the inevitability,” said Ron Paul 2012 National Campaign Chairman Jesse Benton.

“When polls say ‘Romney is actually not the most electable Republican candidate,’ voters should flock to the candidate who can defeat Obama by winning on true conservative principle. That man is Ron Paul,” added Mr. Benton.

The PPP poll is based on telephone surveys of 900 voters and has a +/- 3.3-percentage point error margin.

To view the poll release online, please click here. To view the complete poll document including questions and tables, please click here.

Authorized and paid for by Ron Paul 2012 PCC Inc. www.RonPaul2012.com

SOURCE: Ron Paul 2012 Presidential Campaign Committee




Ron Paul 2012 Presidential Campaign Committee
Gary Howard, 855-886-9779



Copyright Business Wire 2012

">>>

#2 BaalChatzaf

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 08:53 AM

Madness!
אויב מיין באָבע האט בייצים זי וואָלט זיין מיין זיידע

#3 Selene

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 09:38 AM

Gulch:

A word of caution on PPP polls. They are, self admitted, primarily a Democratic polling organization, and, they consistently have played agenda politics with their samples that they poll and the weighting of their statistical analysis.

http://www.publicpol...e_US_032212.pdf <<<<here you have the seventeen (17) pages of cross tabs which are basically the internals of the 900 "registered" voters. They do use the automated telephone polling methodology which has more advantages than disadvantages in terms of getting the more "honest" answers to the questions.

There is no information that I could find in the cross tabs as to whether these "registered" voters were "prime voters" [voters who always vote in all elections, including primaries where held].

Nor, could I find out whether they included cell phones in their sample which could indicate another severe bias in sampling. I may have missed the statement on cell phones in my cursory reading of these seventeen (17) pages, or, perhaps, it is on their home page. Just did not have the time to inquire today.

On page three (3) of the cross tabs, we will find the important information as to the internal sampling weights, e.g., the following two (2) questions indicate a slight bias in female respondents and a more serious bias in self identified Democrats by four (4) percent. This last weighting is significant in this particular election.

My conclusion is that this sampling bias favors the Democratic President O'bama. However, it may indicate a better performance for your man, Dr. Paul, so you should be buoyed by the results.

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 51%
Man................................................................. 49%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 41%
Republican...................................................... 37%
Independent/Other.......................................... 22%

The following was extremely interesting to me, as a political analyst. The following appears on page one (1) of the cross tabs, third (3rd) paragraph from the bottom of the page:

Democrats are, at this point, more united than the GOP is, and Libertarian Gary Johnson’s candidacy
is earning 7% of the vote, helping Obama to a wider 46-39 edge over Romney in a three-way battle.
Johnson does not weaken the president at all with Democrats, but pulls Romney from 78% to 71% of
his party.

This is extremely interesting and depending on where that seven percent (7%) is distributed, could push the election to O'bama.

Adam
"Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice..and moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue."

#4 Peter Taylor

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 09:47 AM

I don’t believe the poll but the local “Big Dog” of local talk radio, Bill Colley recently said he would vote for Ron Paul, instead of Santorum, who was his first choice.
Peter
Semper cogitans fidele,
Independent Objectivist,
Peter Taylor

#5 jts

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 02:05 PM

Ron Paul can't win where there are voting machines. If you want Ron Paul to win, get rid of all the voting machines.

Bunchuv stuff about election fraud:
http://netctr.com/election.html

Voting machines should be banned. Period. All elections that have voting machines should be declared invalid. Null and void, or whatever the expression is.

#6 Selene

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Posted 23 March 2012 - 03:25 PM

Ron Paul can't win where there are voting machines. If you want Ron Paul to win, get rid of all the voting machines.

Bunchuv stuff about election fraud:
http://netctr.com/election.html

Voting machines should be banned. Period. All elections that have voting machines should be declared invalid. Null and void, or whatever the expression is.


Jerry:

Your argument is a non-sequitur. I have seen your websites before on OL. They do not prove your assertion.

Can elections be stolen? Yes.

Are most, or a significant amount of elections stolen? This has never been proven and the assertion in the link does not establish that either.

Adam
"Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice..and moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue."




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