An Opportunity For OLers To Test Their Theoretical Accuracy - What Could Have Happened To Flight MH370?


Selene

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"The last plot on the military radar's tracking suggested the plane was flying toward India's Andaman Islands, a chain of isles between the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal, they said.

Waypoints are geographic locations, worked out by calculating longitude and latitude, that help pilots navigate along established air corridors.

A third source familiar with the investigation said inquiries were focusing increasingly on the theory that someone who knew how to fly a plane deliberately diverted the flight."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/14/us-malaysia-airlines-radar-exclusive-idUSBREA2D0DG20140314

A...

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Adam wrote:

A third source familiar with the investigation said inquiries were focusing increasingly on the theory that someone who knew how to fly a plane deliberately diverted the flight."

end quote

It was spooky that the phones on board continue to ring. That sounds like a plot for the Oceana flight on “Lost.” A Verizon worker speaking on Rush’s show thought it could be a satellite allowing the phones to seemingly ring and not the people’s phones. The best scenario is that it was hijacked and the perps are demanding ransom at a country like Viet Nam. My second hope is that the pilot managed to land on the ocean and people are on life rafts and their phones are out of range of a satellite or phone tower.

Fox business just said the theories and the search zone are expanding. As of now, the most likely destination would be an island in the Indian Ocean because the plane was following certain “check points” as if the plane were being deliberately steered for hours, as Adam mentioned.

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Peter:

The article mentioned it, not I.

That is not even in my top three (3) scenarios.

A...

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Peter:

The article mentioned it, not I.

That is not even in my top three (3) scenarios.

A...

Alien abduction? Bomb? It's still flying around up there?

Let's try and stay grounded here Peter, pun intended.

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Did the plane have enough fuel and range to get to Iran?

--Brant

it's likely in the Bay of Bengal

at least one of the pilots was a Muslim

if one pilot kills the other and changes course, the passengers may not realize it for a long time

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Kat and I are going through the TV series Lost right now.

I may have a few ideas about what happened to the plane.

:smile:

Michael

Great series and I missed the last season - I will have to watch it.

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Here is a set of possible causes of the plane's disappearance. It hinges on a problem reported in another 777 that could have contributed to rapid depressurization and lost communications.

The site is http://www.malaysiandigest.com/

There would have been an explosive loss of pressure at 35,000ft when the SATCOM antenna array disintegrated. The pilots, while disoriented would have done two things, try to take the plane down to below 30,000 feet and try to turn around to the nearest airport for an emergency landing. This is corroborated by the turnaround statement that was tracked by the Military Radar. This also explains why sites like FlightRadar24 and Flightaware lost the flight at the Igari checkpoint. ADS-B isn’t able to track aircraft flying below 30,000ft, but the plane still would have appeared on DCA and Military radar.

Now, the explosion would have taken out the entire SATCOM antenna array, so if the pilots did indeed try to send out a distress call over their normal communications channels, it would not have gone through. However they might not have been aware that their SATCOM antenna array is gone. There could have switched to other communication channels (VHF etc), but they might have been either disoriented, or they just felt that all communications were down. Its hard to speculate their condition and if they were able to get their oxygen masks on in time. Hypoxia (due to the lack of oxygen) can set in very fast, impair cognitive functioning of the brain and incapacitate a person in a short amount of time. Passenger oxygen masks on the 777 do not deploy until cabin altitude exceeds approximately 13,500, and passengers were likely unconscious by that time if it was a slow decompression.

A similar condition was confirmed by the NTSB in the 1999 Lear Jet crash is South Dakota

Edited by william.scherk
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Adam, what are your top three reasons the plane is missing?

I am staying out of this for now, however William's post #13 - is one of my top five and moving into my top 3 as more information appears to be available.

The quandry is where is any wreckage?

However, remeber it took at least two (2) years to find that plane off Brazil a few years ago.

These types of investigations fascinate me.

A,,,

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NY Times breaking news as of 5:00 PM...

Radar signals recorded by the Malaysian military appeared to show that the missing airliner climbed to 45,000 feet, above the approved altitude limit for a Boeing 777-200, soon after it disappeared from civilian radar and turned sharply to the west, according to a preliminary assessment by a person familiar with the data.

Continue reading the main story

The radar track, which the Malaysian government has not released but says it has provided to the United States and China, showed that the plane then descended unevenly to 23,000 feet, below normal cruising levels, as it approached the densely populated island of Penang, one of the country’s largest. There, officials believe, the plane turned from a southwest-bound course, climbed to a higher altitude and flew northwest over the Strait of Malacca toward the Indian Ocean.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/world/asia/malaysia-military-radar.html?emc=edit_na_20140314&nlid=53564225&_r=0

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NY Times breaking news as of 5:00 PM...

Radar signals recorded by the Malaysian military appeared to show that the missing airliner climbed to 45,000 feet, above the approved altitude limit for a Boeing 777-200, soon after it disappeared from civilian radar and turned sharply to the west, according to a preliminary assessment by a person familiar with the data.

Continue reading the main story

The radar track, which the Malaysian government has not released but says it has provided to the United States and China, showed that the plane then descended unevenly to 23,000 feet, below normal cruising levels, as it approached the densely populated island of Penang, one of the country’s largest. There, officials believe, the plane turned from a southwest-bound course, climbed to a higher altitude and flew northwest over the Strait of Malacca toward the Indian Ocean.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/world/asia/malaysia-military-radar.html?emc=edit_na_20140314&nlid=53564225&_r=0

Good speculation so far. Earlier spec., however, posited that the purported course of flight required competent navigation.

--Brant

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The so called "radar image" is really from a transponder on the plane. The transponder could have been turned off and the plane keeps on flying. We have no idea where the plane might have gone down (if it went down) or where it landed (if it landed).

The only clue is something that looks like debris picked up by a Chinese satellite.

Until the plane or it wreckage is found (and that includes the black boxes) we have no really sharp idea where the plane is and how it got there.

Ba'al Chatzaf

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Bob wrote:

Until the plane or it wreckage is found (and that includes the black boxes) we have no really sharp idea where the plane is and how it got there.

end quote

It was reported late last night that if the two main methods of finding a plane’s location are turned off, there is still a “secret” pinger that goes off periodically and can’t be reached by anyone inside the plane. Now that the secret has been revealed engineers will do something different.

The Malaysian Prime Minister insists this was a deliberate act. Many of the experts speaking today, say this must have been a hijacking. The plane appeared to be avoiding ground radar. The plane flew up to seven hours after the beginning of the incident. However, as William mentioned, if there were accidental, explosive disintegration of the body of the plane, oxygen deprivation would have adversely affected the crew’s judgment. BUT the pilots descended to an altitude where the oxygen was denser and survivable.

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I have it! The plane was snatched out of the sky by Ancient Aliens!!

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Bob wrote:

I have it! The plane was snatched out of the sky by Ancient Aliens!!

end quote

Laugh, you silly person. Alien abduction has never been disproved, though traveling from the past to the present has been shown to be bunk, by Hoopendork’s Quackum Function. Phrase it correctly and the truth would be, “The plane was snatched out of the sky by Modern Aliens!!” I have seen them. The truth is out there . . . look hard . . . just over the horizon.

Last nights, “Grimm” had an Egyptian mummy discovered by a woman paleontologist / Egyptologist behind a wall in a museum. It had never been opened. Inside they found a mummy of a creature with pointy ears. It was Anubis the jackal like god of the dead, mummified. And that means it was not mythological. It’s genes live on today in Wesen people, (pronounced Vessin). What a sinful pleasure, is "Grimm."

Peter

Notes:

From Wikipedia:

Homicide Detective Nick Burkhardt of the Portland Police Department (the city actually has the Portland Police Bureau) learns he is descended from a line of "guardians" known as "Grimms", charged with keeping balance between humanity and the mythological creatures of the world called Wesen, the German word for being or creature (pronounced "vessin" on the show; German pronunciation: [ˈveːzn̩]). Throughout the series, he must battle against an assortment of dangerous creatures, with help from his friend Monroe (who is a reformed creature), and his partner Detective Hank Griffin.

Egypian Gods from Wiki.

The oldest known mention of Anubis is in the Old Kingdom pyramid texts, where he is associated with the burial of the pharaoh. At this time, Anubis was the most important god of the dead but he was replaced during the Middle Kingdom by Osiris.

He takes names in connection with his funerary role, such as He who is upon his mountain, which underscores his importance as a protector of the deceased and their tombs, and the title He who is in the place of embalming, associating him with the process of mummification. Like many ancient Egyptian deities, Anubis assumes different roles in various contexts.

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I constantly move from the past to the present. It is the way time goes.

Just sitting still I am moving into the future at the speed of light, one second per second.

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Bob wrote:

I constantly move from the past to the present. It is the way time goes. Just sitting still I am moving into the future at the speed of light, one second per second.

end quote

Would you please be more literal? If you are just sitting and not moving then you are not “moving” into the future. You are being transported there by “time ripples.” And furthermore, if you are also looking into the future at the speed of light, one second per second are you actually a prophet? I think not! To be a prophet one must see into the future at least seven seconds, or to insure enough time to make a trade on Wall Street.

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Bob wrote:

I constantly move from the past to the present. It is the way time goes. Just sitting still I am moving into the future at the speed of light, one second per second.

end quote

Would you please be more literal? If you are just sitting and not moving then you are not “moving” into the future. You are being transported there by “time ripples.” And furthermore, if you are also looking into the future at the speed of light, one second per second are you actually a prophet? I think not! To be a prophet one must see into the future at least seven seconds, or to insure enough time to make a trade on Wall Street.

The Lorentz interval between me now and me one second from now while staying in the same place has an absolute value equal to the number of kilometers light travels in one second.

Ba'al Chatzaf

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I just heard that the older pilot moved out of his home ONE DAY BEFORE the disappearance. Yet if he “was known to be happily married and comfortably well-off. . . AND the profile simply does not fit,” then is it possible he was coerced? And what form would that coercion have taken to be affective? Here are some excerpts from “The Times of Israel.”

The cut and paste:

Ex-El Al expert: Iran likely involved in MH 370

Based on profiling, pilots are unlikely suspects, says Israeli airline’s former security chief; he and other experts believe plane intact. A former security chief for El Al said that the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 points directly to Iran. Isaac Yeffet, who served as head of global security for Israel’s national carrier in the 1980s and now works as an aviation security consultant in New Jersey, said investigators were correct in honing in on the two fake-passport carrying Iranian passengers on the doomed flight, and they have wasted valuable time by exploring other leads.

“What happened to this aircraft, nobody knows. My guess is based upon the stolen passports, and I believe Iran was involved,” he said. “They hijacked the aircraft and they landed it in a place that nobody can see or find it.”

In the immediate aftermath of the aircraft’s disappearance, which occurred last week during a standard night flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, Malaysian officials and the media were fixated on the story of two Iranians who had made it onto the plane with stolen passports. As the days wore on and the investigation uncovered new and confusing details, with officials admitting that the plane could have traveled for as long as seven hours without radio contact, and that its potential location could be anywhere from northern Kyrgyzstan to the southern Indian Ocean, attention has shifted to the pilots and to far-flung conspiracy theories. This is a misstep, said Yeffet, and one that would not have happened in Israel.

However, it would have taken more than just a pair of Iranians with forged documents, Yeffet said, to pull off such an astonishing crime. “I can’t believe for a second that if these people planned to hijack the aircraft, it was just them,” he said. But based upon the tried-and-true Israeli intelligence strategy of profiling, the pilots, he said, are unlikely suspects.

“We are talking about a captain who is 53 years old, who has worked for Malaysia Airlines for 30 years, and suddenly he became a terrorist? He wanted to commit suicide? If he committed suicide, where is the debris?” Adding that the captain in question, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, was known to be happily married and comfortably well-off, Yeffet said the profile simply does not fit. “From the United States to China to Japan, everybody is searching for this aircraft or piece of it. And there is no sign. So in my opinion, the aircraft was hijacked. And it was an excellent plan from the terrorists, to land in a place where they can hide the plane and no one can find it.”

Like Yeffet, Ramot believes the plane was being intentionally flown to a secret location, and he went as far as to say he is holding out hope that the 239 passengers and crew who were on board are still alive.

“We don’t know any better yet,” he said. “One of my theories is that the airplane landed in Bangladesh. It could reach there, it’s very close to Afghanistan. It could have landed on airstrip there, and everybody on board is still alive. It could be done.”

Like his colleagues, Schiff said that his guess is as good as anyone’s as to the fate of MH 370, but he also believes there’s a good possibility that it has been brought down, intact, on a hidden runway in some far-flung corner of the world. “It will be found. It may take a month or a year, but eventually, it will be found,” he said. “This aircraft didn’t vanish. It exists somewhere in the world, and it will be found, probably in one piece.”

EDIT.

From the UK Daily Mail and Australian news sources:

An image has emerged of the pilot of the missing Malaysia Airlines jet wearing a T-shirt with a 'Democracy is Dead' slogan as it has been revealed he could have hijacked the plane in an anti-government protest. Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah, a father-of-three, was said to be a 'fanatical' supporter of the country's opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim - jailed for homosexuality just hours before the jet disappeared.

end quote

So, it was the opposition leader and not the pilot who was jailed for homosexuality. What the hell is that about?

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I just heard that the older pilot moved out of his home ONE DAY BEFORE the disappearance. Yet if he “was known to be happily married and comfortably well-off. . . AND the profile simply does not fit,” then is it possible he was coerced? And what form would that coercion have taken to be affective? Here are some excerpts from “The Times of Israel.”

The cut and paste:

Ex-El Al expert: Iran likely involved in MH 370

Based on profiling, pilots are unlikely suspects, says Israeli airline’s former security chief; he and other experts believe plane intact. A former security chief for El Al said that the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 points directly to Iran. Isaac Yeffet, who served as head of global security for Israel’s national carrier in the 1980s and now works as an aviation security consultant in New Jersey, said investigators were correct in honing in on the two fake-passport carrying Iranian passengers on the doomed flight, and they have wasted valuable time by exploring other leads.

“What happened to this aircraft, nobody knows. My guess is based upon the stolen passports, and I believe Iran was involved,” he said. “They hijacked the aircraft and they landed it in a place that nobody can see or find it.”

In the immediate aftermath of the aircraft’s disappearance, which occurred last week during a standard night flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, Malaysian officials and the media were fixated on the story of two Iranians who had made it onto the plane with stolen passports. As the days wore on and the investigation uncovered new and confusing details, with officials admitting that the plane could have traveled for as long as seven hours without radio contact, and that its potential location could be anywhere from northern Kyrgyzstan to the southern Indian Ocean, attention has shifted to the pilots and to far-flung conspiracy theories. This is a misstep, said Yeffet, and one that would not have happened in Israel.

However, it would have taken more than just a pair of Iranians with forged documents, Yeffet said, to pull off such an astonishing crime. “I can’t believe for a second that if these people planned to hijack the aircraft, it was just them,” he said. But based upon the tried-and-true Israeli intelligence strategy of profiling, the pilots, he said, are unlikely suspects.

“We are talking about a captain who is 53 years old, who has worked for Malaysia Airlines for 30 years, and suddenly he became a terrorist? He wanted to commit suicide? If he committed suicide, where is the debris?” Adding that the captain in question, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, was known to be happily married and comfortably well-off, Yeffet said the profile simply does not fit. “From the United States to China to Japan, everybody is searching for this aircraft or piece of it. And there is no sign. So in my opinion, the aircraft was hijacked. And it was an excellent plan from the terrorists, to land in a place where they can hide the plane and no one can find it.”

Like Yeffet, Ramot believes the plane was being intentionally flown to a secret location, and he went as far as to say he is holding out hope that the 239 passengers and crew who were on board are still alive.

“We don’t know any better yet,” he said. “One of my theories is that the airplane landed in Bangladesh. It could reach there, it’s very close to Afghanistan. It could have landed on airstrip there, and everybody on board is still alive. It could be done.”

Like his colleagues, Schiff said that his guess is as good as anyone’s as to the fate of MH 370, but he also believes there’s a good possibility that it has been brought down, intact, on a hidden runway in some far-flung corner of the world. “It will be found. It may take a month or a year, but eventually, it will be found,” he said. “This aircraft didn’t vanish. It exists somewhere in the world, and it will be found, probably in one piece.”

EDIT.

From the UK Daily Mail and Australian news sources:

An image has emerged of the pilot of the missing Malaysia Airlines jet wearing a T-shirt with a 'Democracy is Dead' slogan as it has been revealed he could have hijacked the plane in an anti-government protest. Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah, a father-of-three, was said to be a 'fanatical' supporter of the country's opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim - jailed for homosexuality just hours before the jet disappeared.

end quote

So, it was the opposition leader and not the pilot who was jailed for homosexuality. What the hell is that about?

My goodness! It is like the T.V. Series Lost in real life. I think the plane is at the bottom of the ocean.

Ba'al Chatzaf

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