So, You Think You're Smarter Than A CIA Agent?


Selene

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I ran across this in my NPR e-mail this morning and I found it intriguing,

Better Than The Pros

For the past three years, Rich and 3,000 other average people have been quietly making probability estimates about everything from Venezuelan gas subsidies to North Korean politics as part of , an experiment put together by three well-known psychologists and some people inside the intelligence community.

According to one report, the predictions made by the Good Judgment Project are often better even than intelligence analysts with access to classified information, and many of the people involved in the project have been astonished by its success at making accurate predictions.

http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/

The Project Welcome

The Good Judgment research team is based in the University of Pennsylvania and the University of California Berkeley. The project is led by psychologists Philip Tetlock, author of the award-winning Expert Political Judgment, Barbara Mellers, an expert on judgment and decision-making, and Don Moore, an expert on overconfidence. Other team members are experts in psychology, economics, statistics, computer science and interface design.

We are participating in the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program, sponsored by IARPA (the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity). The ACE Program aims "to dramatically enhance the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of forecasts for a broad range of event types, through the development of advanced techniques that elicit, weight, and combine the judgments of many intelligence analysts." The project is unclassified: our results will be published in traditional scholarly and scientific journals, and will be available to the general public.

Read more about the IARPA ACE Project

However it does look quite interesting.

Their team is extensive.

A...

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Your brains are on the back burner?

--Brant

Yes.

What I see and do in the moment takes precedence over thought and emotion. I can always think and feel about it later. :wink:

Greg

Capitalism

--laissez-faire capitalism

--crony capitalism

--Atilla the Hun capitalism

--zen capitalism

--Brant

take your pick folks, one to a customer

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For some reason this thread reminded me of a CIA joke from a few years ago.

I had to search for it, but finally found it here:

The CIA had an opening for an assassin. After all of the background checks, interviews, and testing were done there were three finalists: two men and a woman.

For the final test, the CIA agents took one of the men to a large metal door and handed him a gun.

"We must know that you will follow your instructions, no matter what the circumstances. Inside this room, you will find your wife sitting in a chair. Kill her!"

The man said, "You can't be serious. I could never shoot my wife." The agent said, "Then you're not the right man for this job."

The second man was given the same instructions. He took the gun and went into the room. All was quiet for about five minutes. Then the man came out with tears in his eyes."I tried, but I can't kill my wife." The agent said, "You don't have what it takes. Take your wife and go home."

Finally, it was the woman's turn. She was given the same instructions to kill her husband. She took the gun and went into the room. Shots were heard, one shot after another. The the agents heard screaming, crashing, and banging on the walls. After a few minutes, all was quiet. The door opened slowly and there stood the woman.

She wiped the sweat from her brow, and said, "This gun is loaded with blanks. I had to beat him to death with the chair."

:)

Michael

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Nice one ... never saw that one coming...

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Capitalism

--laissez-faire capitalism

--crony capitalism

--Atilla the Hun capitalism

--zen capitalism

--Brant

take your pick folks, one to a customer

" ...money demands of you the highest virtues,

if you wish to make it or to keep it."

--Ayn Rand

Where there's no virtue...

...there's no Capitalism.

Greg

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Capitalism

--laissez-faire capitalism

--crony capitalism

--Atilla the Hun capitalism

--zen capitalism

--Brant

take your pick folks, one to a customer

" ...money demands of you the highest virtues,

if you wish to make it or to keep it."

--Ayn Rand

Where there's no virtue...

...there's no Capitalism.

Greg

Grump. No fun. Grump.

--Brant

virtue capitalism, sheesh, what's the world coming to?

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Grump. No fun. Grump. --Brantvirtue capitalism, sheesh, what's the world coming to?
Who cares?The world doesn't matter as long as it's what I'm coming to, because an objective moral value is not altered by how many people live by it. No fun?... it's lots of fun making money. :smile:Greg
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Grump. No fun. Grump. --Brant virtue capitalism, sheesh, what's the world coming to?
Who cares? :smile: The world doesn't matter as long as it's what I'm coming to, because an objective moral value is not altered by how many people live by it. Greg

Thank goodness I didn't put up my fav, "rape and pillage capitalism."

--Brant

close call

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