An Opportunity For OLers To Test Their Theoretical Accuracy - What Could Have Happened To Flight MH370?

[BaalChatzaf]

I just heard that the older pilot moved out of his home ONE DAY BEFORE the disappearance. Yet if he “was known to be happily married and comfortably well-off. . . AND the profile simply does not fit,” then is it possible he was coerced? And what form would that coercion have taken to be affective? Here are some excerpts from “The Times of Israel.”

The cut and paste:

Ex-El Al expert: Iran likely involved in MH 370

Based on profiling, pilots are unlikely suspects, says Israeli airline’s former security chief; he and other experts believe plane intact. A former security chief for El Al said that the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 points directly to Iran. Isaac Yeffet, who served as head of global security for Israel’s national carrier in the 1980s and now works as an aviation security consultant in New Jersey, said investigators were correct in honing in on the two fake-passport carrying Iranian passengers on the doomed flight, and they have wasted valuable time by exploring other leads.

“What happened to this aircraft, nobody knows. My guess is based upon the stolen passports, and I believe Iran was involved,” he said. “They hijacked the aircraft and they landed it in a place that nobody can see or find it.”

In the immediate aftermath of the aircraft’s disappearance, which occurred last week during a standard night flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, Malaysian officials and the media were fixated on the story of two Iranians who had made it onto the plane with stolen passports. As the days wore on and the investigation uncovered new and confusing details, with officials admitting that the plane could have traveled for as long as seven hours without radio contact, and that its potential location could be anywhere from northern Kyrgyzstan to the southern Indian Ocean, attention has shifted to the pilots and to far-flung conspiracy theories. This is a misstep, said Yeffet, and one that would not have happened in Israel.

However, it would have taken more than just a pair of Iranians with forged documents, Yeffet said, to pull off such an astonishing crime. “I can’t believe for a second that if these people planned to hijack the aircraft, it was just them,” he said. But based upon the tried-and-true Israeli intelligence strategy of profiling, the pilots, he said, are unlikely suspects.

“We are talking about a captain who is 53 years old, who has worked for Malaysia Airlines for 30 years, and suddenly he became a terrorist? He wanted to commit suicide? If he committed suicide, where is the debris?” Adding that the captain in question, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, was known to be happily married and comfortably well-off, Yeffet said the profile simply does not fit. “From the United States to China to Japan, everybody is searching for this aircraft or piece of it. And there is no sign. So in my opinion, the aircraft was hijacked. And it was an excellent plan from the terrorists, to land in a place where they can hide the plane and no one can find it.”

Like Yeffet, Ramot believes the plane was being intentionally flown to a secret location, and he went as far as to say he is holding out hope that the 239 passengers and crew who were on board are still alive.

“We don’t know any better yet,” he said. “One of my theories is that the airplane landed in Bangladesh. It could reach there, it’s very close to Afghanistan. It could have landed on airstrip there, and everybody on board is still alive. It could be done.”

Like his colleagues, Schiff said that his guess is as good as anyone’s as to the fate of MH 370, but he also believes there’s a good possibility that it has been brought down, intact, on a hidden runway in some far-flung corner of the world. “It will be found. It may take a month or a year, but eventually, it will be found,” he said. “This aircraft didn’t vanish. It exists somewhere in the world, and it will be found, probably in one piece.”

EDIT.

From the UK Daily Mail and Australian news sources:

An image has emerged of the pilot of the missing Malaysia Airlines jet wearing a T-shirt with a 'Democracy is Dead' slogan as it has been revealed he could have hijacked the plane in an anti-government protest. Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah, a father-of-three, was said to be a 'fanatical' supporter of the country's opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim - jailed for homosexuality just hours before the jet disappeared.

end quote

So, it was the opposition leader and not the pilot who was jailed for homosexuality. What the hell is that about?

My goodness! It is like the T.V. Series Lost in real life. I think the plane is at the bottom of the ocean.

Ba'al Chatzaf

[Jules Troy]

I think Iran did it.

[Brant Gaede]

I just heard that the older pilot moved out of his home ONE DAY BEFORE the disappearance. Yet if he “was known to be happily married and comfortably well-off. . . AND the profile simply does not fit,” then is it possible he was coerced? And what form would that coercion have taken to be affective? Here are some excerpts from “The Times of Israel.”

The cut and paste:

Ex-El Al expert: Iran likely involved in MH 370

Based on profiling, pilots are unlikely suspects, says Israeli airline’s former security chief; he and other experts believe plane intact. A former security chief for El Al said that the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 points directly to Iran. Isaac Yeffet, who served as head of global security for Israel’s national carrier in the 1980s and now works as an aviation security consultant in New Jersey, said investigators were correct in honing in on the two fake-passport carrying Iranian passengers on the doomed flight, and they have wasted valuable time by exploring other leads.

“What happened to this aircraft, nobody knows. My guess is based upon the stolen passports, and I believe Iran was involved,” he said. “They hijacked the aircraft and they landed it in a place that nobody can see or find it.”

In the immediate aftermath of the aircraft’s disappearance, which occurred last week during a standard night flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, Malaysian officials and the media were fixated on the story of two Iranians who had made it onto the plane with stolen passports. As the days wore on and the investigation uncovered new and confusing details, with officials admitting that the plane could have traveled for as long as seven hours without radio contact, and that its potential location could be anywhere from northern Kyrgyzstan to the southern Indian Ocean, attention has shifted to the pilots and to far-flung conspiracy theories. This is a misstep, said Yeffet, and one that would not have happened in Israel.

However, it would have taken more than just a pair of Iranians with forged documents, Yeffet said, to pull off such an astonishing crime. “I can’t believe for a second that if these people planned to hijack the aircraft, it was just them,” he said. But based upon the tried-and-true Israeli intelligence strategy of profiling, the pilots, he said, are unlikely suspects.

“We are talking about a captain who is 53 years old, who has worked for Malaysia Airlines for 30 years, and suddenly he became a terrorist? He wanted to commit suicide? If he committed suicide, where is the debris?” Adding that the captain in question, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, was known to be happily married and comfortably well-off, Yeffet said the profile simply does not fit. “From the United States to China to Japan, everybody is searching for this aircraft or piece of it. And there is no sign. So in my opinion, the aircraft was hijacked. And it was an excellent plan from the terrorists, to land in a place where they can hide the plane and no one can find it.”

Like Yeffet, Ramot believes the plane was being intentionally flown to a secret location, and he went as far as to say he is holding out hope that the 239 passengers and crew who were on board are still alive.

“We don’t know any better yet,” he said. “One of my theories is that the airplane landed in Bangladesh. It could reach there, it’s very close to Afghanistan. It could have landed on airstrip there, and everybody on board is still alive. It could be done.”

Like his colleagues, Schiff said that his guess is as good as anyone’s as to the fate of MH 370, but he also believes there’s a good possibility that it has been brought down, intact, on a hidden runway in some far-flung corner of the world. “It will be found. It may take a month or a year, but eventually, it will be found,” he said. “This aircraft didn’t vanish. It exists somewhere in the world, and it will be found, probably in one piece.”

EDIT.

From the UK Daily Mail and Australian news sources:

An image has emerged of the pilot of the missing Malaysia Airlines jet wearing a T-shirt with a 'Democracy is Dead' slogan as it has been revealed he could have hijacked the plane in an anti-government protest. Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah, a father-of-three, was said to be a 'fanatical' supporter of the country's opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim - jailed for homosexuality just hours before the jet disappeared.

end quote

So, it was the opposition leader and not the pilot who was jailed for homosexuality. What the hell is that about?

The use of a trumphed up charge designed to slander the victim and drive him out of politics. The former PM of that country used that tactic. Nothing to actually do with homosexuality.

--Brant

there is no good reason to suppose the plane is anywhere but on the bottom of the ocean or that Iran had anything to do with its disappearance--the plane will never be found; the search area is much too vast (and the embarassment of the Malaysian government will continue dribbling out for years, which may be the whole idea by a responsible party if there was a responsible party)

[BaalChatzaf]

The use of a trumphed up charge designed to slander the victim and drive him out of politics. The former PM of that country used that tactic. Nothing to actually do with homosexuality.

--Brant

there is no good reason to suppose the plane is anywhere but on the bottom of the ocean or that Iran had anything to do with its disappearance--the plane will never be found; the search area is much too vast

I agree. Right now the simplest and most reasonable assumption is that the plane is lost and we must wait until some wreckages shows up or someone comes upon the black boxes by happenstance before the power for their signal transponders runs out.

Look at the case of Emelia Erhardt's plane. No one ever found wreckage or body remains.

Ba'al Chatzaf

The use of a trumphed up charge designed to slander the victim and drive him out of politics. The former PM of that country used that tactic. Nothing to actually do with homosexuality.

--Brant

there is no good reason to suppose the plane is anywhere but on the bottom of the ocean or that Iran had anything to do with its disappearance--the plane will never be found; the search area is much too vast

[Jules Troy]

We have satellites that can do facial recognition.

They have found no wreckage debris because there is not any to be found. The plane is in Pakistan in Taliban controlled area.

I Received this in my email and have not had time to verify any of it butttt

Given the intense interest in the disappearance of the Indonesian B-777 . . . and a recently received email from a friend, I thought that you all might like to read this short message. The authors name is Pat. He is a good friend of mine from Federal Express. I was his First Officer (Co-Pilot) for two or three months prior to my upgrading to Captain in 1995. Pat and I then served together as Line Check Airman in the B-727 for a number of years. He is an ex-Air Force F-15 pilot and is now either a MD-11 or B-777 Captain at FedEx. He is a straight shooter! As a courtesy I have obliterated his last name and email address.

THE HINDU CUSH

An observation: a retired 3-star USAF general said (on Fox News) on 18th of March that Boeing received its last 'ping' from the Malaysian 777, while on the ground in western Pakistan, in taliban-controlled area, near the Afghanistan border.

while flying today between Paris and new Delhi (LFPG-VIDP), we were going to fly right over that area. when talking with Kabul Control, we were told to "OFFSET COURSE 10 NAUTICAL MILES TO THE NORTH, TO AVOID MILITARY AREA".

Having flown this part of the world for the last 3.5 yrs, I have NEVER been asked to offset that much in that area, EVEN WHILE THE WAR WAS GOING ON

The three star that Pat is referring to is General Tom McInerney. General McInerney has been a Fox News contributor for quite a while. He comes across to me as an intelligent, sober and connected man. He is always quite measured in his responses and I have never seen him wonder off into the woods by trying to make people think that he is knowledgeable about subject matter that he has little understanding of. On two occasions (that I have seen) this past week the General has stated unequivocally that the missing B-777 is on the ground in western Pakistan in a Taliban controlled area. Two days ago he publically stated on one of the Fox News programs that he had information from Boeing that the last ping from the aircraft had been when the aircraft was on the ground in Pakistan. The following day Boeing walked that statement back but . . . did not state that McInerney was incorrect. Last night I saw a teaser that the General was going to be on the Sean Hannity show. I normally do not watch Sean but I did want to hear what the General had to say, given his position that is clearly contrary to the story being put out by everyone else. Once again General McInerney stated . . . without equivocation, that the aircraft was on the ground in western Pakistan. Sean inquired as to his sources and that General responded that he could not divulge his sources at this time.

Now . . . everyone on this mailing is either an accomplished pilot or crewmember. I have little doubt that this mystery has caused you to ponder the question . . . what happened. I have been involved in several military aircraft accident investigations and the lesson that I have learned from those experiences is to avoid speculation and let the evidence guide you to a conclusion. Frequently things are not what they initially appear to be . .. . or, as Will Rogers once mused; If things were as obvious as they initially appear .. . . then men would be riding horseback sidesaddle . . . and not women. One infuriating aspect to this story is the plethora of experts that are dredged up by the media whose knowledge of the B-777 and of typical airline (ICAO and Domestic) procedures is . . . in a word . . . lacking. As one example .. . . virtually every guest has Googled the B-777-200ER and noted that its fuel capacity is just over 45,000 gallons . . . a little over 300,000 pounds. Unfortunately, transport aircraft are not like our automobiles that we fill up completely at every fueling. There are specific requirements for fuel that include taxi fuel, climb to initial altitude fuel, cruise fuel (all corrected for wind aloft), descent fuel, approach and landing fuel . . . fuel to the alternate and reserve fuel. The sum of these will be the amount of fuel on board at block out and that amount will be reflected on the aircrafts Weight & Balance paperwork. I flew the B-727 for over twenty years . . .. that aircraft has a capacity of 54,000 pounds of fuel. I could count on one hand the number of times that I ever took off with 54,000 pounds in the aircraft. The issue is fuel burn for the trip. If you are carrying extra fuel (above the required fuel), you are burning extra fuel simply to carry extra fuel. So . . . THE question concerning the B-777 should be . .. . how much fuel did the aircraft have at block out. If we knew that the block out fuel was (say) 220,000 pounds, then Boeing, given the profile that the aircraft flew . . . could tell you within a few miles what the maximum range of the aircraft was . . . but after almost two weeks I have not heard this issue raised by any of the experts.

Now . . . I have come to the conclusion that General McInerney very well may have found the answer . . . if for no other reason in that it can be explained by virtually every aspect of this tragedy. If the aircraft is in Pakistan, then there will be no wreckage . . . and no debris field. While the subject of pilot suicide has been discussed, flying 2,700 miles to flame out and crash into the Indian Ocean makes little sense to me. The Egypt Air First Officer in the B-767 didnt make it fifty miles off of the US coast! This situation certainly appears to be a well thought out criminal act . . ... by somebody. Given the Captains political extremism and the fact that his marriage was reportedly failing . . . that his wife and daughter moved out of their home the day before the aircraft went missing . . . this is where Id put my chips. No one went to all of this planning and deliberation just to trash the airplane . .. . you could do that with absolutely no planning whatsoever. I am also intrigued at the Israeli response. The Jerusalem paper (on line) commented that Israeli officials expected to see the aircraft again. The Israelis have also publically stated that Iran is involved and have issued NOTAMS indicating that initial contact with Israeli ATC will be moved further from her borders to permit adequate time to de-louse (my words) any suspicious aircraft. Without question, the Israelis have the best HUMINT in that region . . . they dont get caught sleeping often.

I am of the opinion that the flaw in the planning is the fact that the perpetrator did not realize that the SatCom system would continue to ping even though the systems were turned off in the cockpit. Like our cellphones, even when we turn them off, if the sim chip has any power, the phone is communicating with the nearest cell tower. The only way to go dark with a cell phone is to remove the battery or allow it to completely discharge. In the case of the B-777, someone would have to find the appropriate circuit breaker(s) . . . either in the cockpit or the E&E compartment (below deck) and pull them to depowering the equipment.

Interesting situation with terrifying potential. Pakistan reportedly has over 200 nuclear weapons .. . . think about the possibilities . . ..

[Ellen Stuttle]

Interesting situation with terrifying potential. Pakistan reportedly has over 200 nuclear weapons .. . . think about the possibilities

Why would the Pakistanis need a hijacked plane with which to deliver bombs? Don't they already have planes they could use?

Ellen

[Jules Troy]

To be able to deny culpability, deflect deflect blame others....Who knows, perhaps it is already in another country.

Lets say an individual that owned a rather large (legal) gun collection and he was planning a murder. Is he going to use a gun he owns that can be traced back to him? Or a black market one that he will then toss.

Is he going to use his own car to get there or a stolen one?

[Peter]

China claims to have heard a ping. I read the flight transcript and it is possible the plane was high jacked just after take off. I have no evidence, just a hunch or supposition. Flying for hours and then ditching the aircraft in the Ocean makes little sense, but perhaps the hijackers lacked sense or had a dispute.

[Selene]

China claims to have heard a ping.

And what did Mr. Ping say?

I would not trust China if they said the sun rose in the East this morning.

A...

[Brant Gaede]

China claims to have heard a ping.

And what did Mr. Ping say?

I would not trust China if they said the sun rose in the East this morning.

A...

But it didn't.

--Brant

[Ellen Stuttle]

Plane Found?

examiner.com article

April 30, 2014

GeoResonance, a company that uses technology to find nuclear, biological and chemical weaponry under the ocean, might have found missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370. As GeoResonance reports on its website, we have successfully applied our technology to locate submersed structures, ships and aircraft. On Tuesday, April 29, the Australian company told CBS News in a statement that with the help of its advanced technology, it has found materials that belong to the wreckage of a commercial airliner."

If the wreckage is that of the missing Malaysia Airlines jet Flight MH370, has not been determined yet. [....]

hindustantimes.com article

April 30, 2014

The countries searching for the missing Malaysian jet are assessing a claim by a resource survey company that it found possible plane wreckage in the northern Bay of Bengal, Malaysia's defense minister said.

The location is far from where the underwater and surface search has been concentrated for weeks. Australia-based GeoResonance Pty Ltd. stressed that it is not certain it found the Malaysia Airlines plane missing since March 8, but it called for its findings to be investigated.

Australia international business times article

April 29, 2014

Meanwhile, an American pilot claimed he has found wreckage of the missing airline. After 52 days of the search mission, Michael Hoebel, a pilot from New York, believed he has found the wreckage site of missing jet, Daily Mail reported.

The 60-year-old pilot reportedly spent hours scrutinizing satellite images made available to the general public by the Web site TomNod.com, before he concluded MH370 was lying underneath the Indian Ocean. He noted he has discovered the outline of the jetliner at the bottom of the ocean, off the northeast coast of Malaysia. The area was west of Songkhla in Thailand.

If debris lying at the bottom of the Indian Ocean were verified to be the missing Boeing 777, then it appeared to be in one piece, as per the image that was taken few days after the alleged crash.

Ellen

[Selene]

Ellen:

I saw that first report, thanks for the update.

A...

[BaalChatzaf]

Plane Found?

examiner.com article

April 30, 2014

GeoResonance, a company that uses technology to find nuclear, biological and chemical weaponry under the ocean, might have found missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370. As GeoResonance reports on its website, we have successfully applied our technology to locate submersed structures, ships and aircraft. On Tuesday, April 29, the Australian company told CBS News in a statement that with the help of its advanced technology, it has found materials that belong to the wreckage of a commercial airliner."

If the wreckage is that of the missing Malaysia Airlines jet Flight MH370, has not been determined yet. [....]

hindustantimes.com article

April 30, 2014

The countries searching for the missing Malaysian jet are assessing a claim by a resource survey company that it found possible plane wreckage in the northern Bay of Bengal, Malaysia's defense minister said.

The location is far from where the underwater and surface search has been concentrated for weeks. Australia-based GeoResonance Pty Ltd. stressed that it is not certain it found the Malaysia Airlines plane missing since March 8, but it called for its findings to be investigated.

Australia international business times article

April 29, 2014

Meanwhile, an American pilot claimed he has found wreckage of the missing airline. After 52 days of the search mission, Michael Hoebel, a pilot from New York, believed he has found the wreckage site of missing jet, Daily Mail reported.

The 60-year-old pilot reportedly spent hours scrutinizing satellite images made available to the general public by the Web site TomNod.com, before he concluded MH370 was lying underneath the Indian Ocean. He noted he has discovered the outline of the jetliner at the bottom of the ocean, off the northeast coast of Malaysia. The area was west of Songkhla in Thailand.

If debris lying at the bottom of the Indian Ocean were verified to be the missing Boeing 777, then it appeared to be in one piece, as per the image that was taken few days after the alleged crash.

Ellen

The ocean is two miles deep where the plane most likely went down. The needle on my bullshit meter nearly bent at a 90 degree angle.

Ba'al Chatzaf

[Jules Troy]

I still think it is in terrorist hands.

[Ellen Stuttle]

Another report of debris sighting, this time surface debris near Vietnam

Here's a link to a Daily Mail article which covers all reports so far and has a map showing the whole relevant area - Bay of Bengal, South Indian Ocean, South China Sea.

Some oil-rig workers off Vietnam claim to have seen a burning jet airplane.

Ellen

[Peter]

On 4/3/2014 at 11:17 PM, Jules Troy said:

To be able to deny culpability, deflect deflect blame others....

Why do objectivist fans of Rand, watch tales from the alternative, fictional universe? Some good supernatural sitcoms I still watch reruns of if they are available for free are: “Bewitched”, “I Dream of Jeannie,” “The X-Files,” ‘Lost,” “Grimm,” “Once Upon a Time,” and “True Blood.”

Any others worth watching?

[Peter]

These two are more SciFi but they are showing now or soon. "La Brea" and "Manifest." "Manifest" is especially good.