The New Economy


Theodore

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The degree to which I now trust someone is the degree to which I will speak candidly with them.

-Joe

That's a valuable truth and also alludes to the other side of its dual nature:

Don't trust anyone who isn't even honest enough to tell you who they are.

Greg

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You don't know that, Dean. It is an accepted article of faith in the bitcoin religion.

I do know it. I did a full code review. With my copy of the Bitcoin algorithm, I can verify for myself whether a particular transaction's source of bitcoins are one of the original 21 million generated from the original Bitcoin algorithm and original Bitcoin ledger. I can verify for myself whether the source has been spent already or if I am the first recipient.

You are inserting unjustified smear words "faith" and "religion". Earlier you called the inventor of Bitcoin a dishonest swindler. Your thoughts on this matter have been acknlowledged. We disagree.

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You don't know that, Dean. It is an accepted article of faith in the bitcoin religion.

I do know it. I did a full code review. With my copy of the Bitcoin algorithm, I can verify for myself whether a particular transaction's source of bitcoins are one of the original 21 million generated from the original Bitcoin algorithm and original Bitcoin ledger. I can verify for myself whether the source has been spent already or if I am the first recipient.

Poring over the source code does not keep bitcoin from being a Pyramid. Because like all pyramid scams, value is determined by how many people can be sweet talked into putting their money into the collective.

You are inserting unjustified smear words "faith" and "religion".

Sorry Dean, you had missed my point. Being a religious person, I don't consider faith itself to be derogatory at all. What I was referring to was having a misplaced faith in getting something-for-nothing. It's like the black lady who believes that she'll get a free obamaphone. She got it, and you'll likely get what you believe in, too. But what you don't see is the kind of person you become when you get what you want without working to earn it.

Earlier you called the inventor of Bitcoin a dishonest swindler.

And for an irrefutably valid reason. He has to hide his identity from others because of what he is doing. This is what cheaters need to do when they're up to no good. People who do what's right don't need to hide. It's as simple as that.

I've enjoyed our lively discussion, Dean. :smile:

We each have a completely different views of what's ethical and unethical in business, because each of our lives are guided by a completely different set of values. And since each of us harvests only what we ourselves have planted and no one else, that's as it should be.

Greg

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Please correct me if I'm wrong. But to my understanding, we know that the vast majority of existing bitcoins are possessed by only a tiny handful of individuals. What is going to happen when one of those individuals decides to cash out? ...when they start to look at mansions, ferraris and private jets? What is going to happen to the value of your currency once all of those bitcoins come up for sale on the market, all at once?

How can anybody put trust into Bitcoin knowing that some random stranger can crash the market at any given time?

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Please correct me if I'm wrong. But to my understanding, we know that the vast majority of existing bitcoins are possessed by only a tiny handful of individuals. What is going to happen when one of those individuals decides to cash out? ...when they start to look at mansions, ferraris and private jets? What is going to happen to the value of your currency once all of those bitcoins come up for sale on the market, all at once?

Yeah, that's the rub. Right now, bitcoin is still in the growing phase of the Pyramid cycle as more and more people jump onto the bandwagon. To the ones who have already bought in, it becomes a religion that needs more and more new converts buying into it to keep the value from collapsing.

How can anybody put trust into Bitcoin knowing that some random stranger can crash the market at any given time?

You're asking the right question. Any means of exchange needs to have a reasonably stable value. Do you believe this bitcoin value chart says my "value is stable, trust me"?

chart.png?width=1208&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitBu

I don't.

It says, "I'm a zero sum game that you can only win when others lose."

I think bitcoin would be a useful medium of exchange if only it wasn't a pyramid scam.

Greg

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Please correct me if I'm wrong. But to my understanding, we know that the vast majority of existing bitcoins are possessed by only a tiny handful of individuals. What is going to happen when one of those individuals decides to cash out? ...when they start to look at mansions, ferraris and private jets? What is going to happen to the value of your currency once all of those bitcoins come up for sale on the market, all at once?

How can anybody put trust into Bitcoin knowing that some random stranger can crash the market at any given time?

Its not "my currency", but I do have some bitcons.

Bitcoin's price shot up to $30 in June 2011 (triggered by some mass media coverage), and at that time many people thougth the price was really high, a bubble, and many people did dump their savings in bitcoins. In April 2013 the price shot up to $266 (triggered by Cyprus financial crisis), and again many people thought the price was too high and dumped their bitcoin savings. Once again at the end of November 2013 the price shot up to $1250 (triggered by Chinese adoption), and again many people thought the price was too high and dumped their bitcoin savings.

But yes, there were a number of people who held onto their bitcoins even through these rises.

If you are a really big market player who can significantly alter the price by liquidating... then its more in your interest to sell over time rather than sell everything at once. This is for example why the April 2013 liquidation of gold event has been conspired to have been market manipulation... because a person who wanted to make a profit selling gold would never sell so much gold all at once... but someone who might want to hurt gold's image after Cyprus might have different motives (such as making profit selling dollars & bonds and hurting people's confidence in gold).

Let me assert to you that anyone who didn't sell yet despite those previous rises... who still holds on to the bitcoins that they attained before the market recognized their future market value... these people are mostly smart enough to know the above is true. Particularly the ones that have really large savings.

So... I assure you... the people who have the capability of temporarily crashing bitcoin market by liquidating their bitcoin savings "all at once" have no self interest in doing so. For the few that will, better for us, we would be able to buy the bitcoins from them at a lower price than otherwise. And then, given my assertion for why bitcoin is valuable (because it enables more efficient trade than any previous currency technology)... bitcoin's price will quickly retain its previous market purchasing power.

Its invalid to think that just because a currency is becoming more valuable that owners of it would not want to spend it. This is keynesian/chicago manipulator's talk. Just because you have something that is rising in value, it doesn't mean that you can't find other things in the market that you'd prefer to have now rather than not have or wait for the future. For example, if I don't have any food and I'm hungry, and I had bitcoins, and I beleived those bitcoins would double or triple in value even this year... I'd still spend some of my bitcoins to buy some food so that I don't starve right now. At the same time I might want to work as hard as I can to buy more bitcoins now before the price does rise.

So... JohnPaul... let me pose the question to you. Lets say you had 100 million USD worth of bitcoin... and you believed it would retain or increase in value through your lifetime... how would you go about spending them through your life?

Relevant note: you can go to http://mtgoxlive.com/orders to see how much the bitcoin price would change at mtgox if someone were to come in and dump a certain amount of USD or bitcoin into the exchange to trade at market price. Right now $8 million USD would have to be dumpted (buying bitcoins) to get the price to go from $950 to $1100.

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Let me assert to you that anyone who didn't sell yet despite those previous rises... who still holds on to the bitcoins that they attained before the market recognized their future market value... these people are mostly smart enough to know the above is true. Particularly the ones that have really large savings.

This further clarifies how we each live by a totally different set of ethical values. And this is why your view of bitcoin is so radically different from mine.

My value is working to earn money by providing useful products and services to others...

...while your value is winning money from the losses of others.

One creates wealth... while the other is zero sum.

Greg

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That market purchasing power is increased by purchasing undervalued assets and later selling them after the predicted rise... in my mind is an essential part of capitalism. This is an established idea in austrian economics.

The sum in bitcoin is 21 million, not zero. And as so many point out, alternative ledgers can very easily be created.

Its not like bitcoin holders were able to buy into bitcoin without the form of productivity you vouch for that you imply they lack. They had to work for dollars to be able to buy bitcoins on the exchanges. After bitcoin rose a little in value, they still had to continue working rather than cash in their so far profits.

You are mistaken in thinking that someone's buying in to bicoin will necessarily be their loss at another's gain. We are talking about ending the Federal reserve's military enforced monopoly on currency. This will be great for all producers. This is not zero sum whatsoever. This is a wonderful new pie that someone started making and allowed the rest of the world to join in making and trading.

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Please correct me if I'm wrong. But to my understanding, we know that the vast majority of existing bitcoins are possessed by only a tiny handful of individuals. What is going to happen when one of those individuals decides to cash out? ...when they start to look at mansions, ferraris and private jets? What is going to happen to the value of your currency once all of those bitcoins come up for sale on the market, all at once?

How can anybody put trust into Bitcoin knowing that some random stranger can crash the market at any given time?

Don't fire till you see the bit coins in their hands!!!!

Serapis_and_Bonhomme_Richard.jpg

John Palu Jones

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Some people speculate on Super Bowl Tickets, Acient Chinese Art...

We are a race of traders, barterers, hunters and gatherers...

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Some people speculate on Super Bowl Tickets, Acient Chinese Art...

We are a race of traders, barterers, hunters and gatherers...

...and gamblers and drunkards and cheats and thieves and swindlers and murderers. :wink:

All of the activities we both mentioned enjoy long well defined traditions. If others choose to play the zero sum game, they don't detrimentally affect those who operate outside of that closed system of predators and prey both of whom deserve each other.

“Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value... zero.”

--Voltaire

Collapsing bubbles are simply the inevitable return to reality of nothing for nothing, from the fantasy of something for nothing.

Greg

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"Damn she has a nice censored."

Voltaire

Unpublished Quotes

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Hmm-looks like it is time to duck and hide...

Charlie Shrem, who ran bitcoin (BTC) exchange BitInstant, has been arrested. It looks like he’s one of the bonus busts from the feds’ shutdown of the Silk Road website.

He’s charged, in effect, with not spying enthusiastically enough for the government. Formally, of course, he’s charged under money-laundering laws—which is a nice way to imply he was doing something nasty. Then again, BTC offers competition with the State’s currency, and if there’s one thing the State can’t abide, it’s competition.

So maybe it makes sense they’d be grandstanding: "Truly innovative business models don't need to resort to old-fashioned law-breaking,” said Preet Bharara, the U.S. attorney in Manhattan, according to The Los Angeles Times.

But Bharara and company aren’t just concerned with delivering lectures. "We will aggressively pursue those who would co-opt new forms of currency for illicit purposes." So really, they’re taking care of this fledgling young currency until it grows up big and strong and can stand on its own two feet.

http://www.fee.org/the_freeman/detail/bitcoin-exec-arrested#axzz2rno4Svgo

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Its not like bitcoin holders were able to buy into bitcoin without the form of productivity you vouch for that you imply they lack.

Productive work has never been an issue, but rather the lack or productivity of playing the bitcoin pyramid game.

You can only take profits on your bitcoins by trying to convince other suckers to buy into the pyramid at a higher price just as you were convinced to buy in to pay for the profits taken by the suckers who bought in before you. And this pyramidal template of parasitically feeding off of others is certainly not limited only to bitcoins. Within that closed zero sum system of predator and prey, feeding and being fed upon... nothing is being produced. You can only win if others lose.

I'm really glad that religion is a closed system, as it can only attract the greedy who believe they can get something for nothing as long as they can convince others to get nothing for something. The something for nothings and the nothings for somethings each deserve the other.

Win/Lose

In stark contrast to that nonproductive zero sum gambling pyramid, it is outside of that closed system where ethical people create real wealth from nothing by working to serve each other in honest equitable real value for value business interactions.

Win/Win

I fully understand that once a view has been chosen, you will take it and all of its consequences to your grave as you deserve, just as I do. So I'm only stating my view of participating in pyramids, as well as defining how it contrasts to your view, while describing what each of our two views does to a person's character.

For this is all that matters... the kind of person we are becoming.

Greg

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Greg,

Your failure to recognize the value of being able to transfer market purchasing power electronically without first giving your resources up to a third party (and the consequential losses from counter party risk)... leads you to thinking of bitcoin only as a "pyramid scheme". And then the post above I don't mind so much because you are not contradicting logic nor game theory (austrian economics).

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Greg,

Your failure to recognize the value of being able to transfer market purchasing power electronically without first giving your resources up to a third party (and the consequential losses from counter party risk)... leads you to thinking of bitcoin only as a "pyramid scheme". And then the post above I don't mind so much because you are not contradicting logic nor game theory (austrian economics).

That's another point where we each hold different views.

The third party cost for their providing an electronic transfer service isn't a problem for me because that is what it is... a useful service. I consider it to be just another cost of doing business, and that cost is passed on to the end user just like every other business. When I purchase goods and services, I also understand that I am paying all of the transfer costs of the company which sells to me.

I said before that I think bitcoin could be a useful transfer device if it wasn't for the pyramid scam that determines its value. So on general ethical principles I refrain from being suckered into pyramids, and instead, choose to make my money by operating outside of those zero sum predator/prey win/lose systems, through doing productive work.

Greg

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Well the way I see it is bitcoins are now a currency. A laissez-faire one at that solely controlled by perceived market value and the participants confidence in that currencies ability to be used as it is intended. Already more and more businesses are willing to accept it. Now if I were to travel to the USA and try to pay for goods or services in CDN dollars not one single store would accept it. I would have to go to a currency exchange, pay 12% conversion fee and then go back to the store. If I already owned bitcoins that I bought with CDN dollars I could just sell them.

Yes I already know about using ETFs that are held in both TSE and NYSE whereby I can "wash" it over to either market at a very reduced rate exchange and have done so "Norbert's gambit etc etc".

As a freedom loving person I rather like the Idea of having a currency that is not simply printed at the whim of the US treasurer with his quantitative easing Weimar Republic style printing presses.

Bitcoins in my opinion are simply another option. Interesting that the US government is selling off 28 million worth of them. I too understand that many hard working people feel as you do Greg. Your work ethic is indeed a virtue. As is Dean's. You cannot see eye to eye on this however just because he believes in this currency does not in any way make him immoral. The market will be the final judge of its lasting or short lived value.

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Well the way I see it is bitcoins are now a currency. A laissez-faire one at that solely controlled by perceived market value and the participants confidence in that currencies ability to be used as it is intended. Already more and more businesses are willing to accept it. Now if I were to travel to the USA and try to pay for goods or services in CDN dollars not one single store would accept it. I would have to go to a currency exchange, pay 12% conversion fee and then go back to the store. If I already owned bitcoins that I bought with CDN dollars I could just sell them.

Yes I already know about using ETFs that are held in both TSE and NYSE whereby I can "wash" it over to either market at a very reduced rate exchange and have done so "Norbert's gambit etc etc".

As a freedom loving person I rather like the Idea of having a currency that is not simply printed at the whim of the US treasurer with his quantitative easing Weimar Republic style printing presses.

Bitcoins in my opinion are simply another option. Interesting that the US government is selling off 28 million worth of them.

I have nothing against anyone using bitcoins, because their own free choice has no effect on my own fiscal condition. I operate completely outside of that system. And as long as you understand the principle which determines bitcoin value... go for it. :smile:

I too understand that many hard working people feel as you do Greg. Your work ethic is indeed a virtue. As is Dean's. You cannot see eye to eye on this however just because he believes in this currency does not in any way make him immoral.

That's right, not outright immoral. But definitely the something-for-nothing expectation of others to put their money into the bitcoin pyramid so as to pay for the rising value of his bitcoins with their money. All Ponzis work the same way.

The market will be the final judge of its lasting or short lived value.

Absolutely.

Reality trumps fantasy every time... and everyone gets exactly what they deserve.

Greg

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