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BaalChatzaf

Get read for $4.00 gas...

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BaalChatzaf    0

I just read that 33 percent of american oil refineries are now offline due to the tropical storm that struck Texas. Given a major reduction in the production of gasoline and other refined oil products we will be in for some hard  times.  

 

Please see:  

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/29/business/energy-environment/harvey-energy-industry-texas.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate&action=click&contentCollection=climate&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=3&pgtype=sectionfront

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merjet    0

Is the $4.00 per gallon merely your personal opinion and $4.00 when? It wasn't in the NYT article. The futures market doesn't signal that magnitude of price rise (link). (The link shows wholesale prices, not retail prices. Also,  the prices show normal backwardation.) 

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BaalChatzaf    0
11 hours ago, merjet said:

Is the $4.00 per gallon merely your personal opinion and $4.00 when? It wasn't in the NYT article. The futures market doesn't signal that magnitude of price rise (link). (The link shows wholesale prices, not retail prices. Also,  the prices show normal backwardation.) 

We had similar refining problems with the last $4.00 gas episode  which about 7 o 8 years ago. We are going to enjoy high prices for a while until the petroleum companies can get their refineries back to peek or near peek production.  

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BaalChatzaf    0
1 hour ago, Wolf DeVoon said:

Completely idiotic to think the New York Times is a credible source. Platt's is the go-to authority, with Argus, Rigzone, and Offshore also-rans.

Their report on the number of refineries off line matches several other sources I read.  NYT  can present bare bones factual news devoid of opinion  quite accurately.  I give no credence to their editorials or art reviews.  That is doxa  not fact. 

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Brant Gaede    1
13 hours ago, BaalChatzaf said:

Their report on the number of refineries off line matches several other sources I read.  NYT  can present bare bones factual news devoid of opinion  quite accurately.

Does the NYT?

--Brant

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Brant Gaede    1
13 hours ago, BaalChatzaf said:

Their report on the number of refineries off line matches several other sources I read.  NYT  can present bare bones factual news devoid of opinion  quite accurately.  I give no credence to their editorials or art reviews.  That is doxa  not fact. 

Wolf knows more than a mere something about oil markets.

--Brant

gas prices in Tucson haven't even gone up 10%

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Brant Gaede    1
13 hours ago, BaalChatzaf said:

Their report on the number of refineries off line matches several other sources I read.  NYT  can present bare bones factual news devoid of opinion  quite accurately.  I give no credence to their editorials or art reviews.  That is doxa  not fact. 

You have turned "doxa" into a euphemism for shit. By that standard your opinion is doxa.

--Brant

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BaalChatzaf    0
3 hours ago, Brant Gaede said:

Does the NYT?

--Brant

Yes. On purely factual stories NYT (along with the Wall St. Journal)  is a publication of record.  NYT has high quality vetting standards for factual stories.

If you prefer the WSJ  then read this:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-s-largest-refinery-shuts-due-to-harvey-flooding-1504097098

It says pretty  much the same as the NYT.

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BaalChatzaf    0
3 hours ago, Brant Gaede said:

Wolf knows more than a mere something about oil markets.

--Brant

gas prices in Tucson haven't even gone up 10%

Then have him come to New Jersey to see the oil prices...

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BaalChatzaf    0
3 hours ago, Brant Gaede said:

You have turned "doxa" into a euphemism for shit. By that standard your opinion is doxa.

--Brant

Doxa is opinion (as opposed to fact or a logically necessary proposition).  In many contexts doxa is shit.  An opinion presented as a fact  ought to be regarded with suspicion. 

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merjet    0
40 minutes ago, BaalChatzaf said:

Yes. On purely factual stories NYT (along with the Wall St. Journal)  is a publication of record.  NYT has high quality vetting standards for factual stories.

If you prefer the WSJ  then read this:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-s-largest-refinery-shuts-due-to-harvey-flooding-1504097098

It says pretty  much the same as the NYT.

Since when is 1/5th pretty much the same as 1/3rd? 

WSJ 8/31: Tropical storm ... dropped about a foot of rain Tuesday night on the Beaumont-Port Arthur area, about 90 miles east of Houston, leading to refiners to shutdown facilities that account for more than 3 million barrels a day, or about a fifth of total U.S. capacity.

NYT 8/28: “The hurricane did what terrorists could only dream of and take a third of U.S. refinery capacity off line for days on end,” said Michael E. Webber, deputy director of the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin.

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BaalChatzaf    0
5 hours ago, merjet said:

Since when is 1/5th pretty much the same as 1/3rd? 

WSJ 8/31: Tropical storm ... dropped about a foot of rain Tuesday night on the Beaumont-Port Arthur area, about 90 miles east of Houston, leading to refiners to shutdown facilities that account for more than 3 million barrels a day, or about a fifth of total U.S. capacity.

NYT 8/28: “The hurricane did what terrorists could only dream of and take a third of U.S. refinery capacity off line for days on end,” said Michael E. Webber, deputy director of the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin.

Close enough. The WSJ story came a bit later after a new damage report was issued.

 

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Wolf DeVoon    0
30 minutes ago, BaalChatzaf said:

Close enough. The WSJ story came a bit later after a new damage report was issued.

All Gulf refineries are in good working order, restarting. Ports are reopening. Relax. And for heavens sake, don't rely on UT academics.

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BaalChatzaf    0
1 hour ago, Wolf DeVoon said:

All Gulf refineries are in good working order, restarting. Ports are reopening. Relax. And for heavens sake, don't rely on UT academics.

What is a UT academic?

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Brant Gaede    1
18 hours ago, BaalChatzaf said:

What is a UT academic?

University of Texas?

Prices in Tucson jumped 5 - 6% overnight. Price range for Reg. no-name gas seems to be 117.9 to 131.9. Gas prices here are pretty low compared to CA and even Phoenix. Probably near NJ and OK prices. We sit on an El Paso gas line.

Better quality gas--Shell--is going for 139.9. It's better quality for the addition of a cleaning agent and maybe some other stuff. Everybody gets their gas at one point in Tucson. The Shell and other brand-name guys dump their buckets of stuff into the tanker. Each tanker carries two grades, Reg. and Premium. The middle grade is a combination of the two mixed at the pump.

Because I pumped cheap gas into my 1996 Toyota Tacoma, the four-cylinder engine sludged up at about 110,000 miles for not changing the oil frequently enough. It seems that somehow one affected the other. This was also a general problem with this engine.

--Brant

edit: make 117.9 217.9, etc.

Edited by Brant Gaede

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BaalChatzaf    0
33 minutes ago, Brant Gaede said:

University of Texas?

Prices in Tucson jumped 5 - 6% overnight. Price range for Reg. no-name gas seems to be 117.9 to 131.9. Gas prices here are pretty low compared to CA and even Phoenix. Probably near NJ and OK prices. We sit on an El Paso gas line.

Better quality gas--Shell--is going for 139.9. It's better quality for the addition of a cleaning agent and maybe some other stuff. Everybody gets their gas at one point in Tucson. The Shell and other brand-name guys dump their buckets of stuff into the tanker. Each tanker carries two grades, Reg. and Premium. The middle grade is a combination of the two mixed at the pump.

Because I pumped cheap gas into my 1996 Toyota Tacoma, the four-cylinder engine sludged up at about 110,000 miles for not changing the oil frequently enough. It seems that somehow one affected the other. This was also a general problem with this engine.

--Brant

In New Jersey prices have jumped between 25 and 30 cents a gallon. 

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Brant Gaede    1
13 minutes ago, BaalChatzaf said:

In New Jersey prices have jumped between 25 and 30 cents a gallon. 

20 cents in Tucson--maybe a few more. 

--Brant

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merjet    0
7 hours ago, Brant Gaede said:

Prices in Tucson jumped 5 - 6% overnight. Price range for Reg. no-name gas seems to be 117.9 to 131.9. Gas prices here are pretty low compared to CA and even Phoenix. Probably near NJ and OK prices. We sit on an El Paso gas line.

Better quality gas--Shell--is going for 139.9.

I don't understand those prices. Gus Buddy reports $2.15 to $2.29 (one exception) for regular gasoline around Tucson.

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BaalChatzaf    0

The 1973  dollar  is worth (under indexing)  $5.51.  Back in 1973 during the Arab oil boycott  the price of gasoline in the Boston MA area went from $0.45 gallon to over $0.60 a gallon and their were long lines at the pumps.   And at that time their was no reduction of the output of the refineries. The usual stories of oil ships waiting off shore deliver refined petroleum products  abounded at the time as well as stories of the American oil companies storing their refined products to increase prices  were told and retold.

Gasoline prices  as outrageous as they are now (mostly due to taxes on the gasoline) are the equivalent of just under $0.50 a gallon (adjusted).   

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merjet    0

State plus federal fuel taxes average about 50 cents per gallon for gasoline and 56 cents per gallon for diesel. That's about 20% of the price of  gasoline at the pump.

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BaalChatzaf    0
1 hour ago, merjet said:

State plus federal fuel taxes average about 50 cents per gallon for gasoline and 56 cents per gallon for diesel. That's about 20% of the price of  gasoline at the pump.

Tax and all,  our petrol is cheap  compared to Europe.  Of course it shows.  Our roads and bridges are in very poor condition.  The only time the fix a bridge or overpass is when it collapses or is on the verge of collapse. 

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Brant Gaede    1
9 hours ago, merjet said:

I don't understand those prices. Gus Buddy reports $2.15 to $2.29 (one exception) for regular gasoline around Tucson.

Opps! Change my numbers by replacing the 117.9 with 217.9. Etc.

CA gas is about 4.59/gal

--Brant

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Brant Gaede    1
5 hours ago, merjet said:

State plus federal fuel taxes average about 50 cents per gallon for gasoline and 56 cents per gallon for diesel. That's about 20% of the price of  gasoline at the pump.

But not for CA.

--Brant

that special state with special refining requirements plus taxes

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