dennislmay

APS and the Global Warming Scam

943 posts in this topic

45 minutes ago, BaalChatzaf said:

 Here is a definite statement.  The climate sensitivity models  the IPCC  sponsors or sanctions  run too hot.  When a model does not predict the real world accurately  we say the model is wrong.  Not the IPCC.  They have two dozen models  (maybe more)  none of which are accurate and the take a weighted average  of their outputs.   I do not consider this science.  Maybe the climate mavens do. 

Qua ethics the IPCC may indeed be wrong. There may be two heads to cut off.

--Brant

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Normally I am not a fan of Youtube Thingies  but  when it comes to PBS  lectures on science subjects I am a fan.  Here is a Youtube Thingy that runs between 15 and 16 minutes and is a totally  first rate discussion of the physical drivers of our climate.  Pay heed and learn.  This is a good presentation.  Like they say on Game of Thrones:  Winter is Coming 

 

 

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He threw in Venus at the end. Obviously a hook for it came with no discussion.

--Brant

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2 hours ago, Brant Gaede said:

He threw in Venus at the end. Obviously a hook for it came with no discussion.

--Brant

I think he might have been referring to the fearful predictions of the alarmists.  There is no scientific reason to think Earth is going to become like Venus any time in the next billion years.  Eventually the sun will heat up and will evaporate the oceans but that is a billion and a half years up the line.

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Ba’al wrote: I think he might have been referring to the fearful predictions of the alarmists. end quote

As an example of fearful predictions, the movie, “The Day After Tomorrow,” dramatically showed “man-made warming” miraculously brought on global cooling. But I don’t think the science behind that theory is tenable.   

Every time we “warm,” we thrive. Here are a few recent times that humans have thrived and declined:

The Roman Warming. (500 BC to 535 AD) That was good for humanity, Mother Earth. Was it good for you too? Then the Dark Ages. (535 to 900)  “Cold is bad for us.” Medieval Warming. (900 to 1300)  “Good!” The Little Ice Age. (1300 to 1850)  “Bad.” Modern Warming. (1850 to Present)  “Good for us!”

I am starting to lean towards the hypothesis that “human released” carbon dioxide can affect long term climate change to warm the earth. And as I have mentioned before, it is feasible scientifically and economically, to spread finely ground coal dust over ice sheets to hasten melting to keep glaciers at bay and to absorb more sunlight. (We could use a prop driven cargo plane rigged with dispensers which would be cheap, safe, and easy. How often would coal dust need to be dispensed? I don’t know.)

However, the time line in the video which I will re-watch for content, was thousands of years. So, what is currently occurring seems to be good for a long, long time without any other measures being done (like the coal dust.)

Nuclear weapons could be used for peaceful means like using them in the Great Rift of Africa to change the local climate by creating an inland sea.   

Humanity and Science must lose its climatic religiosity. We need to pass on our true scientific knowledge and theories to future generations, and I would be willing to spend tax dollars to see if we can hasten earth’s warming. Let’s experiment.

Peter  

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"The Day After Tomorrow"  was pure Hollywood  nonsense.   Warming -can- cause freezing over an extended period.  If melting of the glaciers on Greenland reduced the salt concentration of the Atlantic Ocean, there thermohaline conveyor currents could shut down and heat would no long be transported from the tropics to  the Arctic.   Winters  would be colder in the north,  snow would stay on the ground longer.  This would increase the albedo of the Earth and cause the cooling of the North to speed up.  Over an extended period of time, the glaciers would start to reform  as unmelted snow  is compacted into ice.  The freezing of the Arctic Ocean into ice would eventually lead to an increase in the salt concentration which over an even long period of time would lead to the restablishment of the thermohaline conveyor which would start to warm up the North again.  This periodic process is why there is a sequence of glacial and interglacial periods especially in the North Polar regions. 

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Ba’al wrote: This periodic process is why there is a sequence of glacial and interglacial periods especially in the North Polar regions. end quote

So humans are not involved. Heretic! I am open to the suggestion that there are multiple reasons for climate, even the reason incorporating the level of cosmic rays reaching the atmosphere.  I read "Heaven and Earth, Global Warming, the Missing Science," by Australian geologist and climate expert, Ian Plimer. Briefly I will restate what he said. Cosmic rays striking the earth and descending to the lower atmosphere aid in water molecule formation which increases cloud formation. Cloud formation cools the earth. So the more cosmic rays striking the earth the cooler the planets, including the earth. We are shielded from cosmic rays by the sun. The cosmic ray count that hits the earth is lessened when the sun is more active so we then have fewer clouds and the earth warms.

Back to the idea about coal dust on the ice which I think was first proposed around 1969 in Analog Magazine by its editor John W. Campbell, if I remember correctly. What if someone, on go fund me or one of those sites collected money to outfit a plane to deliver the coal dust to both poles? Would treaties be broken if it were a private enterprise? Would the darkening of the ice have any immediate effect?  

Polar bears hunt and eat people so the hell with them. Leopards do too, and many of the heads of hominids fossils show leopard bite marks. Humanity would be better off if both species became extinct . . . just in case humanity is knocked off its feet by an asteroid or a nuclear war and we regress to frontier living.

Peter      

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2 hours ago, Peter said:

Ba’al wrote: This periodic process is why there is a sequence of glacial and interglacial periods especially in the North Polar regions. end quote

So humans are not involved. Heretic! I am open to the suggestion that there are multiple reasons for climate, even the reason incorporating the level of cosmic rays reaching the atmosphere.  I read "Heaven and Earth, Global Warming, the Missing Science," by Australian geologist and climate expert, Ian Plimer. Briefly I will restate what he said. Cosmic rays striking the earth and descending to the lower atmosphere aid in water molecule formation which increases cloud formation. Cloud formation cools the earth. So the more cosmic rays striking the earth the cooler the planets, including the earth. We are shielded from cosmic rays by the sun. The cosmic ray count that hits the earth is lessened when the sun is more active so we then have fewer clouds and the earth warms.

Back to the idea about coal dust on the ice which I think was first proposed around 1969 in Analog Magazine by its editor John W. Campbell, if I remember correctly. What if someone, on go fund me or one of those sites collected money to outfit a plane to deliver the coal dust to both poles? Would treaties be broken if it were a private enterprise? Would the darkening of the ice have any immediate effect?  

Polar bears hunt and eat people so the hell with them. Leopards do too, and many of the heads of hominids fossils show leopard bite marks. Humanity would be better off if both species became extinct . . . just in case humanity is knocked off its feet by an asteroid or a nuclear war and we regress to frontier living.

Peter      

Svensmark has been doing research on cosmic ray induced cloud formation hypothesis for over a decade.  There may well be something to it.  Read "The Cooling Stars" by Svensmark.  

Darkening the ice on land masses will contribute to the melting of glaciers and the raising of ocean level.  I am not in favor of planetary engineering fixes because we don't know enough to predict  all the  follow on effects.   That last thing we need is a -real- climate disaster brought on as a non-intended side effect of a planetary engineering scheme.  

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Finally, an answer. Knock, knock, who’s there? Someone. Someone who? Someone who knows something. Thank you.

Ba’al wrote: Darkening the ice on land masses will contribute to the melting of glaciers and the raising of ocean level.  I am not in favor of planetary engineering fixes because we don't know enough to predict all the follow on effects. That last thing we need is a -real- climate disaster brought on as a non-intended side effect of a planetary engineering scheme. end quote

I live 14 feet above the highest recorded high tide mark so your conjectures make very humanitarian sense to me.

Agent Bob, your assignment if you choose to take it, is to determine the exact problems that would occur after ten years of darkening the ice with coal dust. We have a lot of coal dust. Enough to last for centuries. What does your research show the effects to be if “we don't know enough to predict all the follow on effects.”?

What if we dust the ice once every month or every five years, or ten, or twenty? What actions utilized to humanity‘s benefit would be a good “test”? if the experimental dusting lasted ten years what could we expect? If you or anyone else can come up with a good scientific reply you may be hired to head the department of . . .

Peter      

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You would want to darken the ice if the glaciers were advancing to negate the earth cooling effect of sun rays reflected back into space, not when they are receding.

--Brant

speaking as a layman

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11 hours ago, Peter said:

Finally, an answer. Knock, knock, who’s there? Someone. Someone who? Someone who knows something. Thank you.

Ba’al wrote: Darkening the ice on land masses will contribute to the melting of glaciers and the raising of ocean level.  I am not in favor of planetary engineering fixes because we don't know enough to predict all the follow on effects. That last thing we need is a -real- climate disaster brought on as a non-intended side effect of a planetary engineering scheme. end quote

I live 14 feet above the highest recorded high tide mark so your conjectures make very humanitarian sense to me.

Agent Bob, your assignment if you choose to take it, is to determine the exact problems that would occur after ten years of darkening the ice with coal dust. We have a lot of coal dust. Enough to last for centuries. What does your research show the effects to be if “we don't know enough to predict all the follow on effects.”?

What if we dust the ice once every month or every five years, or ten, or twenty? What actions utilized to humanity‘s benefit would be a good “test”? if the experimental dusting lasted ten years what could we expect? If you or anyone else can come up with a good scientific reply you may be hired to head the department of . . .

Peter      

These particular technical problems are beyond my pay grade.  I can see general thinks, like darkening the glacier  would promote their melting and thereby increase sea level.  How fast?  I do not know.  There are a lot of other factors like cloud cover, solar irradiance etc.  This problem is for Real Scientists, not just hobbyists and bleacher bums like me. The Real Players are down on the field doing their thing.

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On June 17, 2017 at 9:25 PM, Ellen Stuttle said:

Question: Have you heard of what's called "the hiatus"?  I searched your [Bob's] posts for the term and found not one reference.

No answer (the typical).

"The hiatus" refers to a stretch of 18-plus years following 1998 in which the previous late-20th-century reported warming ceased and there might have been average cooling.  Relating "the hiatus" to your "definite statement" - here - that "The climate sensitivity models  the IPCC  sponsors or sanctions  run too hot," it isn't just that the models overestimated warming.  It's that the estimations were made in terms of a particular theoretical framework in which the hiatus blows an irreparable hole.  Hence a state of panic on the part of alarmist theoreticians who know that a hiatus should not have happened according to their account of temperature dynamics.

Back in February, on this thread, Michael posted a Rush Limbaugh transcript in which Limbaugh raised a suggestion I didn't manage to get around to addressing about the alarmists' panic over the pause.

Quote

Rush Limbaugh said - fuller text here:

"[...] to show you how inept they are, we supposedly have had a pause — this is how stupid they are, folks. Listen to me, look at me. We supposedly had a pause for 15 [18+] years. During those 15 [18+] years, why didn’t they say, 'See? Our research is working. See? Our suggestions are working. Our reduction of CO2, our elimination of SUVs, our increased usage of the electric car, whatever, is working, we need to do more of this.'

Why did they greet the pause as a problem, instead of looking at it, 'Wow, we can say we’re succeeding, we can say that we’re on the right track, we need to double down on the kind of restrictions we’ve already –' They’re so stupid politically they didn’t even realize an opportunity to claim success and credit. They saw a pause as panic city. I’m telling you, folks, this is the biggest bunch of fraud, one of the biggest hoaxes that has been perpetrated on a free people in I don’t know when.

The alarmists couldn't have done as Limbaugh suggests.  The reduction in human-produced CO2 emissions hadn't been nearly enough to produce more than a slight slowdown of warming according to the alarmist theories of atmospheric temperature dynamics. They understood, as apparently Limbaugh doesn't, that the pause ("the hiatus") was devastating for their theories, so they had to scrabble either for theory-patches (band-aid improvisations of some factor or factors "masking" or "delaying" the prognosticated warming) or for a way of eliminating the hiatus as measurement artifact.

Ellen

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On June 21, 2017 at 8:45 AM, Brant Gaede said:

You would want to darken the ice if the glaciers were advancing to negate the earth cooling effect of sun rays reflected back into space, not when they are receding.

--Brant

speaking as a layman

Correct.

Ellen

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6 hours ago, Ellen Stuttle said:

No answer (the typical).

"The hiatus" refers to a stretch of 18-plus years following 1998 in which the previous late-20th-century reported warming ceased and there might have been average cooling.  Relating "the hiatus" to your "definite statement" - here - that "The climate sensitivity models  the IPCC  sponsors or sanctions  run too hot," it isn't just that the models overestimated warming.  It's that the estimations were made in terms of a particular theoretical framework in which the hiatus blows an irreparable hole.  Hence a state of panic on the part of alarmist theoreticians who know that a hiatus should not have happened according to their account of temperature dynamics.

Back in February, on this thread, Michael posted a Rush Limbaugh transcript in which Limbaugh raised a suggestion I didn't manage to get around to addressing about the alarmists' panic over the pause.

The alarmists couldn't have done as Limbaugh suggests.  The reduction in human-produced CO2 emissions hadn't been nearly enough to produce more than a slight slowdown of warming according to the alarmist theories of atmospheric temperature dynamics. They understood, as apparently Limbaugh doesn't, that the pause ("the hiatus") was devastating for their theories, so they had to scrabble either for theory-patches (band-aid improvisations of some factor or factors "masking" or "delaying" the prognosticated warming) or for a way of eliminating the hiatus as measurement artifact.

Ellen

Back in the Old Days,  when a theory or model  failed to predict reality,  they discarded the theory or model and built a new one.  That is how relativity theory and quantum theory  was booted up.  

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7 hours ago, Ellen Stuttle said:

The alarmists couldn't have done as Limbaugh suggests.  The reduction in human-produced CO2 emissions hadn't been nearly enough to produce more than a slight slowdown of warming according to the alarmist theories of atmospheric temperature dynamics. They understood, as apparently Limbaugh doesn't, that the pause ("the hiatus") was devastating for their theories...

Ellen,

I would not jump to the conclusion that Rush doesn't understand that the hiatus makes hash out of the alarmists' theory. Explaining science was not the point of his message.

In other words, he is not talking about scientific proof to a scientist. His realm is persuasion. He is talking about how the alarmists could have used the word "proof" in a message to fool laypeople. He said the alarmists missed a huge propaganda opportunity and he presented the rationalization they could have used to make it sound plausible to laypeople. 

Persuasion only deals with truth or falsehood as a support tactic, not as essence. If a persuasion message deals with truth, but does not persuade people, it is lousy persuasion for immediate political goals. And immediate political goals is precisely where the alarmists use it. The climate scientists among the alarmists may not understand this too well, but I assure you the behavioral scientists among them do.

The alarmists want--as main priority--to pass laws to give them gobs of money and power over the entire earth if they can pull it off. Their priority is not to fix manmade climate change (if that even exists). That is window dressing to hide the beast within.

Don't put anything past them. If they had thought of this angle and a Podesta had gotten ahold of it, they would have released someone like Bill Nye the Science Guy (and similar) on the mainstream to make the claim Rush said they missed. It would have had enormous propaganda value, even if the climate scientists said that was not the case. They would have parsed the wording to death in public message after public message--all with the covert behavioral science triggers embedded in the propaganda.

(Covert persuasion does not work like an on-off switch where you do ONE thing and you're done. It works more like piling a lot of small things on a shelf until the shelf collapses under the weight.)

Scientists are not the only ones who vote. Lots and lots and lots of laypeople ripe for being fooled vote, too. And new laws need some semblance of the governed to get enacted and stay that way. 

Here is a parallel example of what I am talking about: the entire narrative that President Trump was in collusion with the Russians to rig the election against Hillary Clinton. There is not a shred of truth in it, but that didn't stop it from being propaganda that is excellent enough to keep the mainstream pundits and establishment politicians talking about it for months as if it were true.

That is the realm where Rush fights. So his main purpose in this case--I believe--is to show that the alarmists are stupid in addition to being evil. On one deep level, it is to discredit the narrative that eggheads are inherently superior to the rest of the human race so we should all let them lord over us. Whether the climate scientific idea in the topic is true or not is beside the point in that realm. It just needs to look good to laypeople to be useful. (Think polar bears for Al Gore. :)

I am sure Rush understands all of this. On science matters, though, believe it or not, he's got a technical side he enjoys a lot. Especially computer science. He keeps it hidden except for random comments because his persona is blue collar, not Ivy League intellectual.

Michael

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We have no clear idea to what extent  human CO2 loading of the atmosphere has contributed to the current warm spell.  The eco-crazies are telling us The Day of Judgement is at hand and we are on the verge of a runaway greenhouse effect (like the planet Venus).  The more sophisticated of the AGW crew do not say outright such things.  The hint at it.   Carl Sagan and Neil DeGrasse Tyson have done this to some extent.  They refer to the anthropocene era,  the era of manmade warming.  They only hint at  runaway greenhouse effect but they don't say it outright.  When the late Carl Sagan was alive and broadcasting his version of Cosmos (N. DeGrasse Tyson has his own reboot of Cosmos)  Carl would talk about the pale blue dot (that is to say Earth)  and say very gloomy things about Venus.  He hinted at a fatal outcome  billyuns and billyuns of times.  We were told how AGW would bring on more and worse hurricanes  and they trumpeted Hurricane Katrina as the result of AGW.  In fact hurricane activity since Katrina has been relatively mild compared to the historical record.  

Here is the interesting thing.  If humans switched over to non CO2 technology to produce electrical power and we did away with ICE transportation modes it would take 50 to 100 years to bring the CO2 level down to the 1950 level.  Why?  Because in the 70 years since a lot of deforesting has happened particularly in Brazil and China. The Boys from Brazil are busy hacking away at the Amazon Rain Forest and China has follow policies that have turned thousands of square miles of  agricultural and forest land into desert.  So the CO2 went up and the trees came down.  Even so the alarmists and eco-crazies tell us that as soon as we generate electricity with solar and wind power and as soon as ICE cars and trucks are replaced by electric vehicles the world will be a lovely place. Meanwhile the eco-crazies  oppose nuclear fission generation of electricity which produces not a molecule of CO2  and which can generate electricity at night and when the wind does not blow.

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It may have been in Switzerland that they just laid white blankets over a retreating glacier to keep it solid. I am not sure why, but I suppose it could have something to do with tourism.  
Peter     

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