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    • Michael Stuart Kelly

      Major Update to OL (please click to open)   02/09/2016

      Sorry for the inconvenience, but we had to update OL and there have been some serious changes made by IPB. The real bad news is that they had to merge User Names and Display Names. This meant that I had to choose between bad and bad. I opted to keep the log-on information the same, so you can get on OL like you always did, but now your User Name is displayed. If your User Name and Display Name were the same, you will not feel the change. If they were different, you are probably irritated right now. I will figure out how you can change this so you can revert to the Display Name you used before if you like, however this may entail a change in how you log-on. The good news is that OL is now searchable from the very beginning. This means all the old posts from the A-Team in Objectivism (and everybody else) will finally show up when you search for something. I will keep changing this announcement as we adapt to these new changes. It's a pain, I know, but after looking around the backend for a bit, I believe the benefits will far, far outweigh the current irritation. They changed things in a hamhanded way and I don't like that, but I can't do anything about it. Benefit-wise, they actually did a good job, so please bear with us. In addition to this change, many good things are coming over time. You are the reason OL exists and I am sorry you have to go through this. Think of it like birth pangs... (All right, all right, that's forcing it.  ) Michael
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jts

Chess Match: Math Problem

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Why is it that the 2012 world chess match will be between the #4 player and the #22 player, by Elo rating? I would tend to expect it to be between the #1 player and the #2 player. This question suggests a math problem.

Gelfand, the #22 player, qualified as challenger for Anand's world title by a series of 3 matches. They were 4 games, 4 games, 6 games. Short matches.

The Math Problem:

Each game is worth 1 point. If you win, you get the full point. If you lose, you get zero. If the game is a draw, each player gets half a point. If the match (series of games) is a draw, there is a tie break system.

Assume that the higher rated player on average scores 60%. Assume that the probability of a game being a draw is 50% (which is a little on the low side in real life).

Let N be the number of games in a match. What is the equation that expresses the relationship between N and the probability that the lower rated player wins the match?

Or, how the 773H did Gelfand qualify as challenger?

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