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    • Michael Stuart Kelly

      Major Update to OL (please click to open)   02/09/2016

      Sorry for the inconvenience, but we had to update OL and there have been some serious changes made by IPB. The real bad news is that they had to merge User Names and Display Names. This meant that I had to choose between bad and bad. I opted to keep the log-on information the same, so you can get on OL like you always did, but now your User Name is displayed. If your User Name and Display Name were the same, you will not feel the change. If they were different, you are probably irritated right now. I will figure out how you can change this so you can revert to the Display Name you used before if you like, however this may entail a change in how you log-on. The good news is that OL is now searchable from the very beginning. This means all the old posts from the A-Team in Objectivism (and everybody else) will finally show up when you search for something. I will keep changing this announcement as we adapt to these new changes. It's a pain, I know, but after looking around the backend for a bit, I believe the benefits will far, far outweigh the current irritation. They changed things in a hamhanded way and I don't like that, but I can't do anything about it. Benefit-wise, they actually did a good job, so please bear with us. In addition to this change, many good things are coming over time. You are the reason OL exists and I am sorry you have to go through this. Think of it like birth pangs... (All right, all right, that's forcing it.  ) Michael
dennislmay

Many Billions of Rocky Planets in Habitable Zones

27 posts in this topic

Many Billions of Rocky Planets in Habitable Zones Around Red Dwarfs in Milky Way

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/03/120328090937.htm

"...the new estimate means that there are probably about one hundred super-Earth planets in the habitable zones around stars in the neighbourhood of the Sun at distances less than about 30 light-years."

A remarkable number which could actually increase interest in interstellar space flight. As discussed elsewhere there will be hundreds of trillions of lesser bodies between each star in this 30 light year

radius. No problem leap-frogging from body to body for supplies with known non-chemical rocket designs.

Industrialize Space Now!

Dennis

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Now if we could just get our lifespans up to say 20-30 thousand years we could do a bit of exploring...

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Plenty of exploring left to do in this solar system. Nuclear rockets of any of several designs can do the job.

Dennis

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Many Billions of Rocky Planets in Habitable Zones Around Red Dwarfs in Milky Way

http://www.scienceda...20328090937.htm

"...the new estimate means that there are probably about one hundred super-Earth planets in the habitable zones around stars in the neighbourhood of the Sun at distances less than about 30 light-years."

A remarkable number which could actually increase interest in interstellar space flight. As discussed elsewhere there will be hundreds of trillions of lesser bodies between each star in this 30 light year

radius. No problem leap-frogging from body to body for supplies with known non-chemical rocket designs.

Industrialize Space Now!

Dennis

This is why there are likely no intelligent alien beings in the galaxy--they aren't here already. The human race could colonize every habital planet in the galaxy in 3/4s of a billion years by sending ships out containing human DNA brought to life in nurseries upon arrival and a few million years or sooner later send out more ships. Or course, there'd be a lot of irrationality involved--nutty billionaires with inflated egos.

--Brant

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This is why there are likely no intelligent alien beings in the galaxy--they aren't here already. The human race could colonize every habital planet in the galaxy in 3/4s of a billion years by sending ships out containing human DNA brought to life in nurseries upon arrival and a few million years or sooner later send out more ships. Or course, there'd be a lot of irrationality involved--nutty billionaires with inflated egos.

--Brant

It is unlikely we will ever propel a massive vessel at c/10 at which speed the time dilation is negligible The only way we are going to be a star-faring race is to increase our lifespan several orders of magnitude. Given that the shelf life of mammalian species on this planet is less than 10 million years I fear we will not last long enough to become star-faring.

The only way open is for us to become long lived.

Right now it is look but don't touch. Later on, who knows? Judging from the self destructive inclinations of our human race the odds do not look good.

Ba'al Chatzaf

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I didn't say actual people would go--just their human DNA.

--Brant

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Individual choice plays a huge role, but I do not see much reason for spacefarers to live on planets. I mean, OK, you might make the choice now or soon to live underwater, say, but I think of the cartoon of the two apes and one is waist deep in the water and the other is saying, "Believe me, the future is on land." I think that once we get off the Earth and into space, then that will be the environment we inhabit. Planets will be only huge reservoirs of matter for subsequent transmutation. Maybe some will make projects out of planets, like terrariums or gardens, wherein they nurture some life forms. Maybe some people will live on planets for the novelty of recreating the old days. Largely, though, I think that (as they say), "the meek shall inherit the Earth; the rest of us are going to escape to the stars."

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Individual choice plays a huge role, but I do not see much reason for spacefarers to live on planets. I mean, OK, you might make the choice now or soon to live underwater, say, but I think of the cartoon of the two apes and one is waist deep in the water and the other is saying, "Believe me, the future is on land." I think that once we get off the Earth and into space, then that will be the environment we inhabit. Planets will be only huge reservoirs of matter for subsequent transmutation. Maybe some will make projects out of planets, like terrariums or gardens, wherein they nurture some life forms. Maybe some people will live on planets for the novelty of recreating the old days. Largely, though, I think that (as they say), "the meek shall inherit the Earth; the rest of us are going to escape to the stars."

Uh--okay. I have no plans to live in tin cans the rest of my life chugging throught the galaxy. We are already on a spaceship. You got a better one?

--Brant

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Individual choice plays a huge role, but I do not see much reason for spacefarers to live on planets. I mean, OK, you might make the choice now or soon to live underwater, say, but I think of the cartoon of the two apes and one is waist deep in the water and the other is saying, "Believe me, the future is on land." I think that once we get off the Earth and into space, then that will be the environment we inhabit. Planets will be only huge reservoirs of matter for subsequent transmutation. Maybe some will make projects out of planets, like terrariums or gardens, wherein they nurture some life forms. Maybe some people will live on planets for the novelty of recreating the old days. Largely, though, I think that (as they say), "the meek shall inherit the Earth; the rest of us are going to escape to the stars."

Uh--okay. I have no plans to live in tin cans the rest of my life chugging throught the galaxy. We are already on a spaceship. You got a better one?

--Brant

Living in space means the industrialization of space. There isn't going to be any place ready to just move into. Even if you found a similar biosphere it is unlikely that biosphere would be compatible with life from this biosphere. Just think of the trillions of little critter that ride along on the biosphere called your human body. Sure you might terraform planets later on but that is quite aways removed from industrializing space first.

I am a fan of mining low-g bodies and living in purpose built structures in space.

Ice_Station at YahooGroups is where I discuss my vision of such industrialization.

In the latest version a rotating cylindrical skyscraper provides gravity - ice is used for radation shielding with the entire structure tethered to or in close proximity to the minor planet Ceres which serves as the heat dump and source of materials for manufacturing. Low-g aquaculture and farming is done below the surface of Ceres with light-pipes. Other minor bodies are mined throughout the solar system and more and more such structures are built. Remote control mining/manufacturing is the primary industry.

After a generation or two of such limitless industry you won't be talking about a tin-can to live in but cities as large as you care to build them.

Dennis

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It is a long way from mining the asteroids (possible with current technology) to traveling to even the nearest star and living to tell about it (not possible with current technology or our current biological nature). We are too short lived to be a star-faring race. We will have to change our biological nature.

Ba'al Chatzaf

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I didn't say actual people would go--just their human DNA.

--Brant

And do what? Replicate? Dream on.

Ba'al Chatzaf

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It is a long way from mining the asteroids (possible with current technology) to traveling to even the nearest star and living to tell about it (not possible with current technology or our current biological nature). We are too short lived to be a star-faring race. We will have to change our biological nature.

Ba'al Chatzaf

Star-faring does not need to happen in a single person's life time. As industrialization of space spreads the trillions of minor bodies between each star will provide the means to continue expansion indefinitely. Reaching stars should not be the goal at all - the industrial resources of greatest value are the trillions of low-g bodies between stars. They have everything that is needed without the expenses involved in high-g bodies.

Dennis

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It is a long way from mining the asteroids (possible with current technology) to traveling to even the nearest star and living to tell about it (not possible with current technology or our current biological nature). We are too short lived to be a star-faring race. We will have to change our biological nature.

Ba'al Chatzaf

Star-faring does not need to happen in a single person's life time. As industrialization of space spreads the trillions of minor bodies between each star will provide the means to continue expansion indefinitely. Reaching stars should not be the goal at all - the industrial resources of greatest value are the trillions of low-g bodies between stars. They have everything that is needed without the expenses involved in high-g bodies.

Dennis

Solve the knap-sack problem for a 4.2 light year trek. And what is the point of living Out There? There is only one reason I can see and that is to escape the death of our Sun. But once the Sun goes out (become a white dwarf actually) what is going to keep all those intermediate habitats snug and warm? We don't get energy from the empty skies. We ultimately get our energy from the Sun. Once that is gone what then?

Ba'al Chatzaf

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It is a long way from mining the asteroids (possible with current technology) to traveling to even the nearest star and living to tell about it (not possible with current technology or our current biological nature). We are too short lived to be a star-faring race. We will have to change our biological nature.

Ba'al Chatzaf

Star-faring does not need to happen in a single person's life time. As industrialization of space spreads the trillions of minor bodies between each star will provide the means to continue expansion indefinitely. Reaching stars should not be the goal at all - the industrial resources of greatest value are the trillions of low-g bodies between stars. They have everything that is needed without the expenses involved in high-g bodies.

Dennis

Solve the knap-sack problem for a 4.2 light year trek. And what is the point of living Out There? There is only one reason I can see and that is to escape the death of our Sun. But once the Sun goes out (become a white dwarf actually) what is going to keep all those intermediate habitats snug and warm? We don't get energy from the empty skies. We ultimately get our energy from the Sun. Once that is gone what then?

Ba'al Chatzaf

You don't need a 4.2 LY trek. There are hundreds of trillions of lesser bodies stretching to and overlapping the influence of stars.

You don't need stars - you need man made nuclear power - fission, breeder fission, hybrid fission-fusion, fusion.

Advanced insulations can keep a house size container warm with just human body heat. Heat rejection - not cold - is in fact the larger obstacle in space [see discussions on Ice_Station at YahooGroups].

99.99999999.... percent of industrial resources are out there - not on Earth. This means virtually everything that can ever be of value is not on Earth.

What is the point of living out there? Why go to Nebraska in 1804? - it was a forsaken barren prarie of no value. Farming technology and other technology changed all of that. Now some of the best farmland and some of the best US towns to live in are in Nebraska. Nebraska is among the 12 Midwest industrial states which account for 43% of US industrial output. Once space is industrialized the Earth will approach zero percent of human productivity over a matter of just a few generations. Virtually all of the significant opportunity for industrial growth is off Earth.

Dennis

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I didn't say actual people would go--just their human DNA.

--Brant

And do what? Replicate? Dream on.

Ba'al Chatzaf

It would go as an electronic code. It's not my dream, just something I read from a scientist decades ago. I personally don't see it happening. It'd be via van Neumann machines.

--Brant

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Lifespan is not a problem. It was much shorter 30 or 50 thousand years ago when people walked across ice from Asia into North America. Life was too short for any one person to see much of the Americas, but that didn’t stop descendants from populating the whole place, right down to the bottom of Chile.

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Lifespan is not a problem. It was much shorter 30 or 50 thousand years ago when people walked across ice from Asia into North America. Life was too short for any one person to see much of the Americas, but that didn’t stop descendants from populating the whole place, right down to the bottom of Chile.

Assume optimistically that a speed of c/10 can be reached. There is virtually no relativistic time dilation at that speed. A trip to a star 100 l.y. distant would take 1000 years which is over ten lifetimes. Coming back the same. Everyone that a crew member knew would be dead and dust even if he could return. Communication would take a century each way.

I think we can reasonably assume that star faring is not in our future. The universe is just too big and we do not last long enough.

Ba'al Chatzaf

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Yes, ten lifetimes, wow.

The Asians who discovered the Americas took many times that to move throughout. So what?

They lost all contact with anyone they may have known back in Asia. So?

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Yes, ten lifetimes, wow.

The Asians who discovered the Americas took many times that to move throughout. So what?

They lost all contact with anyone they may have known back in Asia. So?

Reaching any specific star is unimportant - the gold is the trillions of smaller bodies between the stars. Ten lifetimes is nothing in the big scheme of things as far as settlement. As in most big settlement moves few will ever be going back home and communication is primarily with those nearby in any case. The riches available in the industrialization of space do not require relativistic speeds - that is a misunderstanding often repeated - but entirely incorrect. Once industrialization is in place and wealth increases the finances to travel faster will be available and find their place in the market. That might be much less than c/10 - as long as it is as fast as 1960's nuclear propulsion tests and theory that will be good enough. There is no reason the entire galaxy cannot be settled - then on from there indefinitely.

Dennis

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Lifespan is not a problem. It was much shorter 30 or 50 thousand years ago when people walked across ice from Asia into North America. Life was too short for any one person to see much of the Americas, but that didn’t stop descendants from populating the whole place, right down to the bottom of Chile.

Life span has not even doubled since the beginning of the 20 th century. It has increased maybe 60 percent. In any case this is a trivial increment from the stand point of interstellar travel.

Aside from life span our propulsion technology is just about where the Chinese had it 2000 years ago. We are still sending up solid propellant sky rockets.

But guidance has gotten a lot better.

Ba'al Chatzaf

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Lifespan can be twenty years and there still is no problem. Not sure what part of this you are not getting. No one is saying the individuals who set out will get anywhere special other than closer. Descendents will get there.

And I think plenty of people would want to go, things don’t have to get bad here on earth. Lots of people don’t leave their city for years, wouldn’t mind never leaving it. If the craft is the size of a city, they wouldn’t even notice a difference.

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Dennis wrote:

What is the point of living out there? Why go to Nebraska in 1804?

end quote

And if your name was Denis you would be having much more sex – probably constantly at first - Groucho. Dennis, your numbers make sense. Fox was just stating that there are 176 million combinations of Mega Millions numbers, times one dollar each. The jackpot is 670 million, so it would be worth it to buy every possible combination of numbers. I remember someone had several people buying numbers for him at supermarkets in Pennsylvania and they bought several hundred thousand tickets in the time available and he won! But with a lot of complaints from people in line who were never able to buy a ticket, and there were some rules changes.

So why not take a small mineral and water laden asteroid or small planet on a trip? Why not genetically engineer humans to be smarter, saner, and with longer lives, for the Grande Voyage? There are ethical considerations but that has never stopped progress. The wonder and the quest is the major consideration.

Jon Letendre wrote:

The Asians who discovered the Americas took many times that to move throughout. So what?

end quote

Excellent thinking, Jon. You should post all the time.

Peter Taylor

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Reaching any specific star is unimportant - the gold is the trillions of smaller bodies between the stars.

What smaller bodies. One past the Oort cloud, then what? The space between stars is mostly empty. And what will be the energy source. Once one is far from the Sun and not near another star where shall the heat come from? There is just so much fuel that can be carried in a vessel.

Ba'al Chatzaf

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Reaching any specific star is unimportant - the gold is the trillions of smaller bodies between the stars.

What smaller bodies. One past the Oort cloud, then what? The space between stars is mostly empty. And what will be the energy source. Once one is far from the Sun and not near another star where shall the heat come from? There is just so much fuel that can be carried in a vessel.

Ba'al Chatzaf

The Oort cloud extends out about a light year:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oort_cloud

After that you have the parts of the Oort cloud ejected - trillions of bodies, various planets and moons ejected during solar system(s) formation [hundreds of sizable bodies], various failed stars and bodies too small to form stars - dozens of large bodies and billions or trillions of smaller ones. Hopping from body to body provides all the ingredients you need for fission/breeder fission/hybrid fission-fusion/fusion for billions of years worth of fuel on hundreds of trillions of locations.

Each vessel need not travel far and there is plenty of nuclear fuel and volitiles for propulsion. There are billions refueling stations in every direction well within known propulsion techniques -even those tested in the 1960's. Take 4.3 light years divided by millions or billions and you aren't traveling far. The stars aren't of much value except to tell you where the smaller bodies are clusters. Heat rejection - not cold is the issue in space as discussed in a previous post and on Ice_Station at YahooGroups.

On a related topic:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/03/120329171607.htm

It also means that direct electrosynthesis of starting foodchain stuffs for space

development can be done without sunlight or other hinderances. As deep sea

vents have shown once you set a few nutients and chemosythesis going a whole

food chain can flow from there.

Dennis

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We can put the ARI in a starship.

--Brant

it can be done!

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