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About 9thdoctor

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  • Birthday August 20

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    Gallifrey Threepwood
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    Fiction authors: Umberto Eco, P.G. Wodehouse, Thomas Pynchon, Douglas Adams, Robert Heinlein

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  1. 1980 was the same. Carter was expected to win, and Reagan blew him away. As of this moment, it looks like Hillary's going to win big. "Mandate" level win. Me, I'm all in for Johnson.
  2. FWIW, Wendell Willkie was never in public service before becoming the Republican presidential nominee in 1940, and was a successful businessman. His military service consisted of going through training to fight in WWI, but it was over before he got there. Here's a good, fair-minded, easy to read article on the big tax loss imbroglio: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2016/10/10/trumps-909-million-tax-loss-new-york-times-points-toward-poor-tax-policy.html Though that story is pretty well forgotten already. Someone get me started on the "Carried Interest Loophole" both Trump and Hillary denounced last night. Or actually, no, don't get me started. I don't have the time or the intestinal fortitude, and probably no one would want to read about it.
  3. I'd switch it from "what did you do in private" to "what did you do in public, in your capacity as a public servant..." BTW, Scott Adams has switched his endorsement to Gary Johnson. http://blog.dilbert.com/post/151552548531/why-i-endorse-gary-johnson-this-week
  4. This belongs somewhere:
  5. 3 and a half, actually. And hopefully he's going to really open the floodgates on issuing pardons for non-violent drug offenders. He's done a fair number already. Perhaps he's waiting until after the election, since a good number have been rotting in jail since the Clinton administration. It would draw the wrong kind of attention. https://reason.com/blog/2016/08/30/obama-commutes-sentences-of-111-more-fed
  6. I borrowed a copy of The Art of the Comeback and it confirms this right on the first page. It's usually fun being The Donald, but in the early 1990s, trust me, it wasn't. My journey is a hard one to believe, I was many billions in the red, $975 million of that debt I'd personally guaranteed. On page xix of the Introduction there's what looks like one sweet family photo. 4 people: man, woman, two kids. Trump, his two teenage sons, and Hillary Clinton in the middle. Caption: "Hillary Clinton, Donny Jr., Eric, and me. The First Lady is a wonderful woman who has handled pressure incredibly well." Oh dear.
  7. Yeah, it's not the only way it could have happened. I hadn't thought it through enough.
  8. BTW, in real estate personal guarantees are avoided like the plague, and if your lender is requiring one, it's a sure sign they lack confidence in your business plan. In my experience they're quite unusual. But there's a very typical type of personal guarantee, what we call a "bad boy" guarantee. It triggers personal liability only under certain circumstances, not necessarily illegal acts (though they're included), but definitely violation of the loan provisions. Whether this has anything to do with Trump, I don't know. Maybe The Art of the Comeback has something about this, though his self-aggrandizing prose is beyond my intestinal fortitude.
  9. The "making an ass of himself" episode (let's call it the "Fat KASS incident", for short) I was referring to was the Miss Universe weight gain Twitter storming all night thing. Anti-Trump people are the only ones complaining? Come on.
  10. Is that the best you can do? Are you unwilling to acknowledge that Trump is making an ass of himself, pointlessly? That this reflects badly on him? That it reinforces the instability meme?
  11. My understanding is that it's an NOL. My point is that you have to have Basis to claim such a Loss. How do you get Basis on this kind of scale? One way would be to earn $100M a year for 9 years, leaving the earnings in the business (reinvesting them, while paying some tax along the way), then have a loss of $900M in year 10. Note this wouldn't involve Other People's Money in any way. The way I suspect it did happen, and of course I don't know this, I'm speculating: he executed a personal guarantee on a big piece of debt, the business(es) collateralizing it went bust, and it suddenly became his liability. That would also provide Basis for Loss. So: he invests some amount of equity in a deal, say $100M, and takes out a $900M mortgage. He personally guarantees the mortgage. It defaults. Now what? Well, if they do a workout he'll have Forgiveness of Debt Income in a future year. If they write it down to zero the NOL would be wiped out. If he has to pay the debt, he gets to, in effect, do so with pre-tax dollars. He's going to have to earn money and hand the cash over to the debtor. The tax on those earnings will be offset by the NOL, until it's used up. And after that, he's working for himself again...well, himself and Uncle Sam.
  12. I discussed it this morning with some knowledgeable finance pros, albeit not tax pros like myself, and was a bit surprised that they didn't understand it as readily as I expected. So I think you're right. Someone on Trump's team can maybe package it in a way that will work for the general public. They're not doing a good job so far.
  13. This is from his personal tax return, right? He had to have Basis to claim the Loss. I'll try to explain in greater detail later.
  14. I beg to differ. Christie left out the best rebuttal: if Trump had a $900M+ loss in one year, he presumably had $900M+ income in prior years. You can’t say the few ($10+?) million he inherited spun off such a tax loss. If you earn (in your business) $1M in year 1, pay tax on it, then lose $1M in year 2 guess what you get to do? File for a refund of what you paid in year 1. It’s called a carryback. There’s nothing crazy about it. Christie says this is part of our crazy tax code, accepting by implication that there's something wrong here, while this is one of the areas where the tax code is not crazy. BTW, you also get to carry it forward: it’s actually back 3 forward 15, hence the 18 year figure referenced in the clip. Concerning the Miss Universe Twitter thing, Trump’s behavior calls to mind one of the most unsavory figures in O-Land: Lindsay Perigo. Except Trump doesn’t delete his worst rants, and he doesn’t drink (meaning: he doesn’t have the same excuse).